数值地震预测的关键物理问题

英文篇名：Physical and seismological challenges in numerical earthquake forecasting: a discussion on the key issues in the physics of earthquakes
中文刊名：物理
英文刊名：Physics
作者：马腾飞 ; 吴忠良
英文作者：MA Teng-Fei WU Zhong-Liang (Institute of Geophysics ; China Earthquake Administration ; Beijing 100081 ; China)
中文关键词：数值地震预测 ; 应力变化 ; 地震断层 ; 状态—速率摩擦函数
英文关键词：numerical earthquake forecast ; stress change ; earthquake fault ; rate-and-state friction
出版日期：2013-04-12
机构：中国地震局地球物理研究所;
年：2013
期：04
出版单位：物理

摘要

数值地震预测是地震物理研究中的一个重要课题,具有基础性的科学意义和潜在的应用价值。文章介绍了数值地震预测的三个关键物理问题——地震发生率与应力变化的关系、地震断层的摩擦函数、地球中应力的传递问题,讨论了这些问题的意义、研究现状和发展趋势。
Numerical earthquake forecasting is one of the outstanding problems in the physics of earthquakes, with significant implications for fundamental science and potential application. Identification of the physical and seismological challenges is one of the critical steps in the approach to numerical earthquake forecast. This article reviews some key issues in the physics and seismology related to numerical earthquake forecasting, including the relation between earthquake rate and stress change, the rate-and-state friction along an earthquake fault, and the transfer of stresses within the Earth. Their significance, status-quo, and future perspectives are discussed.

引文

1)ACES,APEC Cooperation for Earth-quake Simulation,见http://quakes.earth.uq.edu.au/
    2)参见:http://www.corssa.org/
    3)参见:CSEP,Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability,www.cseptest-ing.org
    [1]石耀霖.物理,2013,42(4):237
    [2]Tullis T E.Seismol.Res.Lett.,2012,83(6):957
    [3]Marone C.Annu.Rev.Earth Pl.Sc.,1998,26:643
    [4]Lin J,Stein R S.J.Geophys Res.,2004,109:B02303
    [5]Dieterich J.J Geophys.Res.,1994,99:2601
    [6]Schorlemmer D,Gerstenberger M C,Wiemer S et al.Seismol.Res.Lett.,2007,78:17
    [7]Parsons T,Ji C,Kirby E.Nature,2008,454:509
    [8]Scholz C H.Nature,1998,391:37
    [9]Li Q,Tullis T E,Goldsby D et al.Nature,2011,480:233
    [10]Shibazaki B,Shimamoto T.Geophys.J.Int.,2007,171:191
    [11]Voisin C,Cotton F,Di Carli S.J.Geophys.Res.,2004,109:B06304