海原断裂带分段地震潜势分析
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摘要
利用近年来在海原断裂带各断裂段取得的最新古地震资料,通过实时概率模型,对海原断裂带东段、中段、西段进行了地震潜势的定量评估。得出海原断裂带东段、中段、西段未来100年内发生7级以上地震的概率分别为3.15%、11.35%、5.15%,未来200年内发生7级以上地震的概率分别为6.05%、22.8%、9.75%。
The Haiyuan fault is divided into three sections.The paleoearthquake data obtained in recent years in Haiyuan fault is analyzed with real-time probability model,the quantitative assessment of earthquake potential is carried out for above each section.The probability of earthquake occurrence in the Haiyuan fault,the East,Middle and West area in the next 100 years are 3.15%,11.35%.5.15%,in the next 200 years are 6.05%,22.8%,9.75%.
The Haiyuan fault is divided into three sections.The paleoearthquake data obtained in recent years in Haiyuan fault is analyzed with real-time probability model,the quantitative assessment of earthquake potential is carried out for above each section.The probability of earthquake occurrence in the Haiyuan fault,the East,Middle and West area in the next 100 years are 3.15%,11.35%.5.15%,in the next 200 years are 6.05%,22.8%,9.75%.
引文
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[5]Lasserre C,Morel P H,Gaudemer Y,et al.Postglacialleft slip-rate and past occurrence of8 earthquakes onthe western Haiyuan fault,Gansu,China[J].J GeophysRes,1999,104:17 633-17 651.
[6]Lasserre C,Bukchin B,Bernard P,et al.Fast late Pleis-tocene slip rate on the Lenglong Ling segment of theHaiyuan Fault,Qinghai,China[J].J Geophy Res,2002,107(B11):2 276,doi 10.1029/2000JB000060.
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[10]Zhang P,Molnar P,Burchfile B C,et al.Bounds onthe Holocene slip rate of the Haiyuan fault,northcentral China[J].Quat Res.1988,30:151-164.
[11]闻学泽.活动断裂地震潜势的定量评估[M].北京:地震出版社,1995:20-80.
[12]刘静,徐锡伟,李岩峰,等.以海原断裂甘肃老虎山段为例浅析走滑断裂古地震记录的完整性[J].地质通报,2007,26(6):650-660.
[13]尹金辉,陈杰,卢演俦.沉积速率摇摆匹配法限定古地震事件日历年龄[J].地震地质,2003,33(2):383-390.
[2]田勤俭,丁国瑜,申旭辉.拉分盆地与海原断裂带新生代水平位移规模[J].中国地震,2001,17(2):167-175.
[3]张培震,闵伟,邓起东.海原活动断裂带的古地震与强震复发规律[J].中国科学,2003(D辑),33(8):705-713.
[4]Gaudemer Y,Tapponnier P,Meyer B,et al.Partitioningof crustal slip between linked active faults in the east-ern Qilian Shan,and evidence for a major seismic gap,the Tianzhu gap,on the western Haiyuan fault,Gansu(China)[J].Geophy J,1995,120(3):599-645.
[5]Lasserre C,Morel P H,Gaudemer Y,et al.Postglacialleft slip-rate and past occurrence of8 earthquakes onthe western Haiyuan fault,Gansu,China[J].J GeophysRes,1999,104:17 633-17 651.
[6]Lasserre C,Bukchin B,Bernard P,et al.Fast late Pleis-tocene slip rate on the Lenglong Ling segment of theHaiyuan Fault,Qinghai,China[J].J Geophy Res,2002,107(B11):2 276,doi 10.1029/2000JB000060.
[7]Matthews M V,Ellsworth W I,Reasenberg P A.A Brown-ian model for recurrent earthquakes[J].Bull Seism SocAmer,2002,92:2 233-2 250.
[8]Schwartz D P,Coppersmith K J.Fault behavior and cha-racteristic earthquakes:examples from the Wasatch andSan Andreas fault zones[J].J Geophys Res,1984,89:5681-5 698.
[9]Deng Q D,Chen S F,Song F M,et al.Variation in thegeometry and amount of slip on the Haiyuan(Nanxi-huashan)fault zone,China,and the surface rupture ofthe 1920 Haiyuan earthquake[C]//In:Das S,et al(eds).Earthquake Source Mechanics,Geophy MonogrSer.1986,37,169-182,AGU,Washington,D.C.
[10]Zhang P,Molnar P,Burchfile B C,et al.Bounds onthe Holocene slip rate of the Haiyuan fault,northcentral China[J].Quat Res.1988,30:151-164.
[11]闻学泽.活动断裂地震潜势的定量评估[M].北京:地震出版社,1995:20-80.
[12]刘静,徐锡伟,李岩峰,等.以海原断裂甘肃老虎山段为例浅析走滑断裂古地震记录的完整性[J].地质通报,2007,26(6):650-660.
[13]尹金辉,陈杰,卢演俦.沉积速率摇摆匹配法限定古地震事件日历年龄[J].地震地质,2003,33(2):383-390.
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