玉树地震前NCEP异常现象
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摘要
利用天体引潮力周期变化计算模型和NCEP多源综合温度数据资料,分析了2010年4月14日青海玉树MS7.1地震的诱因。结果表明:在玉树地震前,天体引潮力经历低谷—高峰—低谷—高峰的连续变化,NCEP遥感数据呈现出起始增温—加强增温—高峰增温—增温衰减的规律,由此证明以NCEP温度为主导,以天体引潮力构造附加应力变化为参考,是一种有希望的预测思路。
Using the cycle process model of the astro-tidal-triggering and according to the NCEP integrated multi-source temperature data,we analyzed the triggering factors of Yushu MS7.1 earthquake in Qinghai occurred on Apr.14 in 2010.The result indicated that astro-tidal-triggering went through a continuous change between peak and trough,such as "trough-peak-trough-peak",and the NCEP remote sensing data showed the law of "original temperature rise-enhancement-reaching peak-attenuation" before Yushu MS7.1 earthquake.Thus,under the dominant of temperature variation in the NCEP remote sensing data and taking the tectonic additional stress variation of astro-tidal-triggering as the reference is a promising idea to predict the earthquake.
Using the cycle process model of the astro-tidal-triggering and according to the NCEP integrated multi-source temperature data,we analyzed the triggering factors of Yushu MS7.1 earthquake in Qinghai occurred on Apr.14 in 2010.The result indicated that astro-tidal-triggering went through a continuous change between peak and trough,such as "trough-peak-trough-peak",and the NCEP remote sensing data showed the law of "original temperature rise-enhancement-reaching peak-attenuation" before Yushu MS7.1 earthquake.Thus,under the dominant of temperature variation in the NCEP remote sensing data and taking the tectonic additional stress variation of astro-tidal-triggering as the reference is a promising idea to predict the earthquake.
引文
马未宇,徐秀登,徐保华.2006.印度尼西亚9.0地震序列与增温异常和天体引潮力的相关关系研究[J].西北地震学报,28(2):129-133.
马未宇,赵虎,周波.2008.汶川8.0地震天体引潮力和温度变化过程[J].国际地震动态,(11):104.
钱晓东,秦嘉政.2010.2010年青海玉树地震及震后青藏高原强震趋势分析[J].地震研究,33(4):255-264.
闻学泽,徐锡伟,郑荣章,等.2003.甘孜—玉树断裂的平均滑动速率与近代大地震破裂[J].中国科学(D辑:地球科学),33(S1),199-208.
张希,张晓亮,张四新.2010.青藏块体东北缘近期GPS水平运动特征与汶川大震影响[J].地震研究,33(4):265-268.
Friedemann F.2002.Charge generation and propagation in igneous rocks[J].Journal of Geodynamics,33(4),543-570.
Gorny V I,Salman A G,Tronin.1988.The earth outgoing IR radiation asan indicator of seismic activity[J].Sci USSR,30(1):67-69.
Heaton T H.1975.Tidal triggering of earthquakes[J].Geophys J R astrSoc,43(307):307～326.
Kalnay E,Kanamitsu M,Kistler R,et al.1996.The NCEP/NCAR40years reanalysis project[J].Bulletin of the American MeteorologicalSociety.77(3):437-471.
Ma W Y,Zhang X C,Dai X F,et al.2007.A preliminary study on the useof NCEP temperature images and Astro-Tidal-Triggering to forecastshort-impending earthquake[J].Earthquake Research in China,21(1):85-93.
Milne,John.1913.Earthquakes and Other Earth Movements[M].NewYork:DAppleton.
Qiang ZJ,Dian CG,Li LZ.1999.Satellite thermal infrared brightness temperature anomaly image-short-term and impending earthquake pre-cursors[J].Science in China(Science D),42(3):313-324.
Tramutoli V,Cuomob V,Filizzolab C.2005.Assessing the potential ofthermal infrared satellite surveys for monitoring seismically active ar-eas:The case of Kocaeli(I·zmit)earthquake,August17,1999[J].Remote Sensing of Environment,96(3),409-426.
Tronin,Hayakawa M,Molchanov O A.2002.Thermal IR satellite data application for earthquake research in Japan and China[J].Geodyn,33(4-5),519-534.
Wu L,Cui C.2000.Remote sensing rock mechanics(RSRM)and associ-ated experimental studies[J].International Journal of Rock Mechan-ics and Mining Sciences,37(6):879-888.
马未宇,赵虎,周波.2008.汶川8.0地震天体引潮力和温度变化过程[J].国际地震动态,(11):104.
钱晓东,秦嘉政.2010.2010年青海玉树地震及震后青藏高原强震趋势分析[J].地震研究,33(4):255-264.
闻学泽,徐锡伟,郑荣章,等.2003.甘孜—玉树断裂的平均滑动速率与近代大地震破裂[J].中国科学(D辑:地球科学),33(S1),199-208.
张希,张晓亮,张四新.2010.青藏块体东北缘近期GPS水平运动特征与汶川大震影响[J].地震研究,33(4):265-268.
Friedemann F.2002.Charge generation and propagation in igneous rocks[J].Journal of Geodynamics,33(4),543-570.
Gorny V I,Salman A G,Tronin.1988.The earth outgoing IR radiation asan indicator of seismic activity[J].Sci USSR,30(1):67-69.
Heaton T H.1975.Tidal triggering of earthquakes[J].Geophys J R astrSoc,43(307):307～326.
Kalnay E,Kanamitsu M,Kistler R,et al.1996.The NCEP/NCAR40years reanalysis project[J].Bulletin of the American MeteorologicalSociety.77(3):437-471.
Ma W Y,Zhang X C,Dai X F,et al.2007.A preliminary study on the useof NCEP temperature images and Astro-Tidal-Triggering to forecastshort-impending earthquake[J].Earthquake Research in China,21(1):85-93.
Milne,John.1913.Earthquakes and Other Earth Movements[M].NewYork:DAppleton.
Qiang ZJ,Dian CG,Li LZ.1999.Satellite thermal infrared brightness temperature anomaly image-short-term and impending earthquake pre-cursors[J].Science in China(Science D),42(3):313-324.
Tramutoli V,Cuomob V,Filizzolab C.2005.Assessing the potential ofthermal infrared satellite surveys for monitoring seismically active ar-eas:The case of Kocaeli(I·zmit)earthquake,August17,1999[J].Remote Sensing of Environment,96(3),409-426.
Tronin,Hayakawa M,Molchanov O A.2002.Thermal IR satellite data application for earthquake research in Japan and China[J].Geodyn,33(4-5),519-534.
Wu L,Cui C.2000.Remote sensing rock mechanics(RSRM)and associ-ated experimental studies[J].International Journal of Rock Mechan-ics and Mining Sciences,37(6):879-888.
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