沿海建筑物地震与海啸损失估计
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摘要
在最近几十年,地震和地震海啸给沿海城市造成了巨大的经济损失和人员伤亡,研究地震与海啸灾害的损失估计具有重大意义。首先介绍地震损失估计方法;然后借鉴地震损失估计方法,通过分别分析海啸灾害的危险性和建筑物的易损性,提出海啸灾害损失的概率模型;最后考虑地震和海啸的共同作用,通过量化震后破坏等级对建筑物抗海啸能力的影响,建立风险重叠区建筑物的地震与海啸总损失模型。为地震海啸损失估计提供一种简易快速的估计方法,为风险区灾害预测、减灾管理和多灾害风险评估和保险计算提供依据。
In recent decades,huge economic losses and casualties have been caused in the coastal cities by earthquakes and tsunamis triggered by earthquakes,so it is of great significance to study loss estimation of earthquake and tsunami disasters. First,the earthquake loss assessment method is proposed. Then,based on the method,a probability model for tsunami loss evaluation from two aspects—tsunami hazard and structural vulnerability,is presented. Considering the combined action of earthquake and tsunami,by quantifying the influence of earthquake damage level on the tsunami resistance ability of buildings,a model for total loss of buildings is established. It provides a simple and fast method for earthquake and tsunami loss estimation and the basis for disaster forecast,disaster reduction management and multihazard risk assessment and insurance calculation.
In recent decades,huge economic losses and casualties have been caused in the coastal cities by earthquakes and tsunamis triggered by earthquakes,so it is of great significance to study loss estimation of earthquake and tsunami disasters. First,the earthquake loss assessment method is proposed. Then,based on the method,a probability model for tsunami loss evaluation from two aspects—tsunami hazard and structural vulnerability,is presented. Considering the combined action of earthquake and tsunami,by quantifying the influence of earthquake damage level on the tsunami resistance ability of buildings,a model for total loss of buildings is established. It provides a simple and fast method for earthquake and tsunami loss estimation and the basis for disaster forecast,disaster reduction management and multihazard risk assessment and insurance calculation.
引文
[1]叶珊珊,翟国方.地震经济损失评估研究综述[J].地理科学进展,2010,29(6):684-692(Ye Shanshan,Zhai Guofang.A review on seismic economic loss estimation[J].Progress in Geography,2010,29(6):684-692(in Chinese))
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[8]姚远,蔡树群,王盛安.海啸波数值模拟的研究现状[J].海洋科学进展,2007,25(4):487-494(Yao Yuan,Cai Shuqun,Wang Shengan.Present status of study on numerical simulation of tsunami wave[J].Advances in Marine Science,2007,25(4):487-494(in Chinese))
[9]Leone F,Lavigne F,Paris R,et al.A spatial analysis of the December 26th,2004 tsunami-induced damages:Lessons learned for a better risk assessment integrating building vulnerability[J].Applied Geography,2011,31(1):363-375
[10]Reese S,Cousins W J,Power W L,et al.Tsunami vulnerability of buildings and people in South Java–field observation after the July 2006 Java tsunami[J].Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences,2007,7(5):573-589
[11]Stefan R,Brendon A B,Jochen B,et al.Empirical building fragilities from observed damage in the 2009 South Pacific tsunami[J].Earth-Science Reviews,2011,107(1-2):156-173
[12]尹之潜.地震灾害损失预测研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,1991,11(4):87-96(Yin Zhiqian.A study for predicting earthquake disaster loss[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,1991,11(4):87-96(in Chinese))
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[14]陈运泰,杨智娴,许力生.海啸、地震海啸与海啸地震[J].物理,2005,24(12):864-872(Chen Yuntai,Yang Zhixian,Xu Lisheng.Tsunami、earthquake-generated tsunamis and tsunamigenic earthquakes[J].Physics,2005,24(12):864-872(in Chinese))
[15]付庆军.越洋和局地海啸数值模拟的理论研究及其应用[D].天津:天津大学文,2007(Fu Qingjun.Research on theory and application of trans-oceanic tsunami and local tsunami numerical simulation[D].Tianjin:Tianjin University,2007(in Chinese))
[16]Aggeliki B,Mark R L,Burak U,et al.Reassessing the tsunami risk in major ports and harbors of California I:San Diego[J].Nat Hazard,2011,58(1):479-496
[17]Liu Y C,Angela S,Shuo M W,et al.Tsunami hazards along Chinese coast from potential earthquakes in South China Sea[J].Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors,2007,163(1-4):233-244
[18]FEMA-P646 Guidelines for design of structures for vertical evacuation from tsunami[S].Washington.D.C.Federal Emergency Management Agency,2008
[19]Peiris N.Vulnerability functions for tsunami loss estimation[C]//First European Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology.Geneva,Switzerland:2006:1121
[20]Sangki P.Understanding and mitigating tsunami risk coastal structures and communities[D].American:Colorado State University,2011
[21]Omira M A,Baptista J M,Miranda E,et al.Tsunami vulnerability assessment of Casablanca-Morocco using numerical modeling and GIS tools[J].Nat Hazards,2010,54(1):75-95
[22]邬亲敏,冯启民,莫善军.建筑物地震损失风险与保险费用的确定方法[J].地震工程与工程振动,2004,24(1):180-185(Wu Qinmin,Feng Qimin,Mo Shanjun.Calculation methods for earthquake loss risk and insurance premium of buildings[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,2004,24(1):180-185(in Chinese))
[2]崔玉红,邱虎,聂永安,等.国内外单体建筑物震害预测方法研究述评[J].地震研究,2001,24(2):175-182(Cui Yuhong,Qiu Hu,Nie Yongan,et al.Research review of predictive method about single building in the world[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2001,24(2):175-182(in Chinese))
[3]王悦,刘晶波.建筑物地震损失估计方法对比分析[J].自然灾害学报,2005,14(4):121-126(Wang Yue,Liu Jingbo.Comparative analysis of estimation methods for earthquake losses to buildings[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2005,14(4):121-126(in Chinese))
[4]Hiroaki S,Hitoshi M,Yasunori K,et al.Study on a simplified method of tsunami risk assessment[J].Natural Hazards,2003,29(3):325-340
[5]Srivihok P,Ruangrassamee H A,Muangsin V,et al.Development of an online tool for tsunami inundation simulation and tsunami loss estimation[J].Continental Shelf Research,2012,http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2012.08.021
[6]Roland C,Senaratne L R,Ganesh P S,et al.The 2004tsunami in Aceh and Southern Thailand:A review on coastal ecosystems,wave hazards and vulnerability[J].Perspectives in Plant Ecology,Evolution and Systematics,2008,10(1):3-40
[7]温瑞智,任叶飞.我国地震海啸危险性分析方法研究[J].世界地震工程,2007,23(1):6-11(Wen Ruizhi,Ren Yefei.Preliminary study on tsunami hazard analysis in China[J].World Earthquake Engineering,2007,23(1):6-11(in Chinese))
[8]姚远,蔡树群,王盛安.海啸波数值模拟的研究现状[J].海洋科学进展,2007,25(4):487-494(Yao Yuan,Cai Shuqun,Wang Shengan.Present status of study on numerical simulation of tsunami wave[J].Advances in Marine Science,2007,25(4):487-494(in Chinese))
[9]Leone F,Lavigne F,Paris R,et al.A spatial analysis of the December 26th,2004 tsunami-induced damages:Lessons learned for a better risk assessment integrating building vulnerability[J].Applied Geography,2011,31(1):363-375
[10]Reese S,Cousins W J,Power W L,et al.Tsunami vulnerability of buildings and people in South Java–field observation after the July 2006 Java tsunami[J].Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences,2007,7(5):573-589
[11]Stefan R,Brendon A B,Jochen B,et al.Empirical building fragilities from observed damage in the 2009 South Pacific tsunami[J].Earth-Science Reviews,2011,107(1-2):156-173
[12]尹之潜.地震灾害损失预测研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,1991,11(4):87-96(Yin Zhiqian.A study for predicting earthquake disaster loss[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,1991,11(4):87-96(in Chinese))
[13]尹之潜,李树桢,杨淑文,等.震害与地震损失的估计方法[J].地震工程与工程振动,1990,10(1):99-107(Yin Zhiqian,Li Shuzhen,Yang Shuwen,et al.Estimating method of seismic damage and seismic loss[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,1990,10(1):99-107(in Chinese))
[14]陈运泰,杨智娴,许力生.海啸、地震海啸与海啸地震[J].物理,2005,24(12):864-872(Chen Yuntai,Yang Zhixian,Xu Lisheng.Tsunami、earthquake-generated tsunamis and tsunamigenic earthquakes[J].Physics,2005,24(12):864-872(in Chinese))
[15]付庆军.越洋和局地海啸数值模拟的理论研究及其应用[D].天津:天津大学文,2007(Fu Qingjun.Research on theory and application of trans-oceanic tsunami and local tsunami numerical simulation[D].Tianjin:Tianjin University,2007(in Chinese))
[16]Aggeliki B,Mark R L,Burak U,et al.Reassessing the tsunami risk in major ports and harbors of California I:San Diego[J].Nat Hazard,2011,58(1):479-496
[17]Liu Y C,Angela S,Shuo M W,et al.Tsunami hazards along Chinese coast from potential earthquakes in South China Sea[J].Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors,2007,163(1-4):233-244
[18]FEMA-P646 Guidelines for design of structures for vertical evacuation from tsunami[S].Washington.D.C.Federal Emergency Management Agency,2008
[19]Peiris N.Vulnerability functions for tsunami loss estimation[C]//First European Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology.Geneva,Switzerland:2006:1121
[20]Sangki P.Understanding and mitigating tsunami risk coastal structures and communities[D].American:Colorado State University,2011
[21]Omira M A,Baptista J M,Miranda E,et al.Tsunami vulnerability assessment of Casablanca-Morocco using numerical modeling and GIS tools[J].Nat Hazards,2010,54(1):75-95
[22]邬亲敏,冯启民,莫善军.建筑物地震损失风险与保险费用的确定方法[J].地震工程与工程振动,2004,24(1):180-185(Wu Qinmin,Feng Qimin,Mo Shanjun.Calculation methods for earthquake loss risk and insurance premium of buildings[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,2004,24(1):180-185(in Chinese))
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