利用近代小震资料快速简略评估地震危险性的方法
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摘要
利用1970～1994年华北地区仪器记录到的地震目录,通过层次模型,将该地区分为不同大小的单元。在每个单元中,由小震活动情况,通过G-R关系得到较大地震的活动情况;并根据震级和烈度之间的关系,得到未来50a不同地震烈度的发生概率。文中还将所得结果与历史地震活动情况以及第三代区划图进行对比研究。结果表明,由近代小震活动对地震危险性进行评估是可能的。
In this paper, the North China area is divided into cells of different size according to hierarchy model using instrument-recording small earthquake data(1970- 1994). In each cell, the annual occurrence probability of larger magnitude earthquakes can be obtained from the annual probability of small magnitude earthquakes by G-R relationship. The seismic intensity probability within 50 years can be got from the relation between magnitude and intensity. We also made some comparison study with historical earthquake activity and with the new zoning map of china. The result shows that it is possible to estimate seismic hazard from modern small earthquake activity.
In this paper, the North China area is divided into cells of different size according to hierarchy model using instrument-recording small earthquake data(1970- 1994). In each cell, the annual occurrence probability of larger magnitude earthquakes can be obtained from the annual probability of small magnitude earthquakes by G-R relationship. The seismic intensity probability within 50 years can be got from the relation between magnitude and intensity. We also made some comparison study with historical earthquake activity and with the new zoning map of china. The result shows that it is possible to estimate seismic hazard from modern small earthquake activity.
引文
1 陈颙,刘杰.地震灾害损失预测(综述).自然灾害学报,1995,4(2) .
2 胡聿贤.地震工程学.北京:地震出版社,1988．
3 State Seismological Bureau. Seismic Intensity Zoning Map of China. Beijing: Seismological Press, 1991．
4 Keilis-Borok V I and L Knopoff. Bursts of aftershock of strong Earthquake. Nature, 1980, 283: 5744259～5744263．
5 马秀芳,傅丽萍.爆发余震与强震关系的统计检验.地震学报,1991,13(3) :273～280．
6 焦远碧,吴开统,杨满栋.华北地区测震台网的观测精度.地震,1988,(1) :30～37．
7 刘杰,陈颙,杨一冲.利用近代微震资料研究地震危险性.中国地震,1996,12(3) .
3 陈颙,季颖.一个能产生分形结构的地震活动性模型.西北地震学报,1993,15(4) :1～6．
9 傅征祥,姜立新,王晓青.地震损失概率预测研究中的地震危险性分析方法探讨.中国地震,1995,11(1) :49～53．
10 沈建文,邱瑛, 张杰.场地烈度-频次关系与b值的联系及其在合肥市的应用,中国地震,1988,4(1) :34～40．
11 刘杰,陈棋福,陈颙.华北地区地震目录完全性分析.地震,1996,16(1) :59～67
2 胡聿贤.地震工程学.北京:地震出版社,1988．
3 State Seismological Bureau. Seismic Intensity Zoning Map of China. Beijing: Seismological Press, 1991．
4 Keilis-Borok V I and L Knopoff. Bursts of aftershock of strong Earthquake. Nature, 1980, 283: 5744259～5744263．
5 马秀芳,傅丽萍.爆发余震与强震关系的统计检验.地震学报,1991,13(3) :273～280．
6 焦远碧,吴开统,杨满栋.华北地区测震台网的观测精度.地震,1988,(1) :30～37．
7 刘杰,陈颙,杨一冲.利用近代微震资料研究地震危险性.中国地震,1996,12(3) .
3 陈颙,季颖.一个能产生分形结构的地震活动性模型.西北地震学报,1993,15(4) :1～6．
9 傅征祥,姜立新,王晓青.地震损失概率预测研究中的地震危险性分析方法探讨.中国地震,1995,11(1) :49～53．
10 沈建文,邱瑛, 张杰.场地烈度-频次关系与b值的联系及其在合肥市的应用,中国地震,1988,4(1) :34～40．
11 刘杰,陈棋福,陈颙.华北地区地震目录完全性分析.地震,1996,16(1) :59～67
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