基于GIS和突变理论的区域地震危险度多准则评价
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摘要
针对地震孕灾环境的复杂性和危险度的随机性、模糊性,在分析区域地震环境影响因素和突变行为的基础上,基于尖点突变模型,建立了区域地震环境突变分析模型,并构建了区域地震危险度突变层次结构体系,划分了区域地震危险度指标分级标准;基于经典突变理论及其推广形式,提出了区域地震危险度评价的突变方法,结合GIS空间分析技术实现区域地震潜在危险度的可视化.该方法首先利用GIS技术对底层评价指标赋值且量纲为一化,根据各层次指标体系的特点选取相应的突变模型,并逐层递归运算出区域地震危险度的总突变值,与地震危险度多准则评价标准比较得到危险分级;其次,利用GIS的可视化功能绘制出区域地震潜在危险度评价图,从而综合评判区域的地震危险度.最后,通过实例计算与分析,验证了该方法的可行性和合理性,评价结果可为区域地震危险度分析和潜在地震危险度评价提供理论依据.
According to the complexity of seismic disaster-pregnant environment,the randomness and fuzziness of seismic hazard,regional seismic environment mutation analysis model was established based on the cusp catastrophe model,on the basis of the analysis of regional seismic environmental impact factors and mutant behavior.The mutation hierarchy system of regional seismic hazard was built,and grading standard for regional seismic hazard assessment was divided.The catastrophe method for regional seismic hazard assessment was proposed based on the classic mutation theory and its promotion in the form.Visualization of regional seismic hazard was achieved combined with GIS spatial analysis techniques.Firstly,the bottom evaluating indicators were assigned values using GIS technology,and standardized.According to the characteristics of index system,the corresponding mutation model was identified,and the total value of mutation of regional seismic hazard was calculated by recursion.The seismic hazard classification was obtained comparing with multi-criteria hazard evaluation level.Secondly,the assessment map of potential seismic hazard was drafted using GIS,then the regional seismic hazard assessment was achieved.Finally,through the example calculation and analysis,the feasibility and rationality of the method was verified.The evaluation results can provide a theoretical basis for the potential seismic hazard analysis and seismic hazard assessment.
According to the complexity of seismic disaster-pregnant environment,the randomness and fuzziness of seismic hazard,regional seismic environment mutation analysis model was established based on the cusp catastrophe model,on the basis of the analysis of regional seismic environmental impact factors and mutant behavior.The mutation hierarchy system of regional seismic hazard was built,and grading standard for regional seismic hazard assessment was divided.The catastrophe method for regional seismic hazard assessment was proposed based on the classic mutation theory and its promotion in the form.Visualization of regional seismic hazard was achieved combined with GIS spatial analysis techniques.Firstly,the bottom evaluating indicators were assigned values using GIS technology,and standardized.According to the characteristics of index system,the corresponding mutation model was identified,and the total value of mutation of regional seismic hazard was calculated by recursion.The seismic hazard classification was obtained comparing with multi-criteria hazard evaluation level.Secondly,the assessment map of potential seismic hazard was drafted using GIS,then the regional seismic hazard assessment was achieved.Finally,through the example calculation and analysis,the feasibility and rationality of the method was verified.The evaluation results can provide a theoretical basis for the potential seismic hazard analysis and seismic hazard assessment.
引文
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[3]DOLAN J F,SIEH K,ROCKWELL T K,et al.Prospectsfor larger or more frequent earthquakes in the Los Angelesmetropolitan region[J].Science,1995,267:199-205.
[4]窦海岳,陈时军.山东地区地震危险性空间分布特征研究[J].华北地震科学,2009,27(3):1-6.DOU Hai-yue,CHEN Shi-jun.Study on spatialdistribution of seismic hazard in Shandong area[J].NorthChina Earthquake Sciences,2009,27(3):1-6.(inChinese)
[5]WARD S N.Methods for evaluating earthquake potentialand likelihood in and around California[J].Seism ResLett,2007,78:121-133.
[6]杨勇,史保平,孙亮.基于华北区域地震活动性分布的地震危险性评价模型[J].地震学报,2008,30(2):198-208.YANG Yong,SHI Bao-ping,SUN Liang.Seismic hazardestimation based on the distributed seismicity in northernChina[J].Acta Seismological Sinica,2008,30(2):198-208.(in Chinese)
[7]张杰,姚大全,刘东旺,等.安徽及邻区中长期地震危险区的预测研究[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2006,27(3):29-39.ZHANG Jie,YAO Da-quan,LIU Dong-wang,et al.Prediction study on mid-long-term seismic risk zone inAnhui province[J].Seismological and GeomagneticObservation and Research,2006,27(3):29-39.(inChinese)
[8]林建平,林联盛,蔡海生,等.GIS支持下的江西省地震潜在危险度评价[J].江西农业大学学报,2008,30(1):160-164.LIN Jian-ping,LIN Lian-sheng,CAI Hai-sheng,et al.Appraisal on potential danger of earthquake in Jiangxiprovince based on GIS[J].Journal of Jiangxi University ofAgriculture,2008,30(1):160-164.(in Chinese)
[9]李克,刘俊清,王禹萌.层次分析方法在划分中长期地震危险区中的应用[J].世界地震工程,2011,27(2):196-201.LI Ke,LIU Jun-qing,WANG Yu-meng.Applicationresearch of analytic hierarchy process in mid-long-termseismic hazard zonation[J].World EarthquakeEngineering,2011,27(2):196-201.(in Chinese)
[10]刘朝峰,苏经宇,王威,等.区域地震灾害承载力评价的突变模型[J].中国安全科学学报,2011,21(11):8-15.LIU Chao-feng,SU Jing-yu,WANG Wei,et al.Catastrophe model for evaluating regional earthquake-disaster-carrying capability[J].China Safety ScienceJournal,2011,21(11):8-15.(in Chinese)
[11]WANG T T,YAN X Z,YANG X J,et al.Dynamicsubsidence prediction of ground surface above salt caverngas storage considering the creep of rock salt[J].SciChina Tech Sci,2010,53:3197-3202.
[12]李祚泳,张国丽,党媛.推广的高维突变模型势函数及用于地下水水质评价[J].系统工程,2010,28(4):101-105.LI Zuo-yong,ZHANG Guo-li,DANG Yuan.Generalizedpotential function of higher dimension catastrophe modeland its applications to evaluation of ground water quality[J].Systems Engineering,2010,28(4):101-105.(inChinese)
[13]周国云,陈光齐.基于GIS和数量化理论II的滑坡危险性预测[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2008,27(12):2494-2500.ZHOU Guo-yun,CHEN Guang-qi.Landslide riskprediction based on coupling GIS and second theory ofquantification[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanicsand Engineering,2008,27(12):2494-2500.(inChinese)
[14]XIE M,ESAKI T,ZHOU G,et al.GIS-based 3D criticalslope stability analysis and landslide hazard assessment[J].Journal of Geotechnical and Geo-environmentalEngineering,2003,129(12):1109-1118.
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