概率一致设定地震及其估计方法

英文篇名：PROBABILITY-CONSISTENT SCENARIO EARTHQUAKE AND ITS DETERMINATION
中文刊名：地震工程与工程振动
英文刊名：EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING AND ENGINEERING VIBRATION
作者：罗奇峰
英文作者：Luo Qifeng(Institute of Structural Theory ; Tongji University ; Shanghai 200092 ; China)
中文关键词：设定地震 ; 震级 ; 震中距
英文关键词：Scenario earthquake ; Magnitude ; Epicentral distance
出版日期：1996-09-28
机构：同济大学结构理论研究所
年：1996
期：03
出版单位：地震工程与工程振动

摘要

本文首先讨论已有的设定地震的概念及其存在的问题，然后提出一在指定场点产生超越概率为Ｐ０、地震动强度为ｙ（Ｐ０）的潜在震源区的概率一致设定地震的定义及其震级Ｍ（Ｐ０）、震中距Ｒ（Ｐ０）、震中的确定方法。
he definition of hazard-consistent scenario earthquake suggested by other authors is discussed firstly.According to their definition,the exceeding probability of the ground motion intensity,caused by scenario earthquake,is not keep consistent with the hazard level deduced from the seismic hazard analysis.Then a new definition of probability-consistent scenario earthquake and a method for determining the magnitude,epicentral distance and epicentre of the scenario earthquake is proposed in this paper.The probability-consistent magnitude M(p0) and probability-consistent epicentral distance R(P0) are defined as conditional mean values corresponding to that the ground motion intensity equals y(p0), the level is determined from p0,a probability of exceedance obtained from a conventional seismic hazard analysis.

引文

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