基于贝叶斯判别分析的地震应急响应等级初判方法
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摘要
破坏性地震发生后,相关部门须启动适当的应急响应等级并按照应急预案开展救灾。对响应等级的判断可视为对一个地震灾害事件严重程度分类判别的问题。贝叶斯判别分析法是一种应用广泛的判别分析统计方法,本文论述了贝叶斯判别分析法在判断地震应急响应等级中的应用;通过对1949—2008年中国大陆成灾震例的整理分析,以震级、震区人口密度等地震有关信息为依据,建立起地震应急响应等级的分类判别规则,从而提供了一种简便、快速的地震应急响应等级初判方法;经检验该方法是有效的。
Once a devastating earthquake hits China continent,the relevant departments should start certain appropriate emergency response level to provide disaster relief according to the emergency plan.Judging a quake emergency response level is something equivalent to classifying the quake by the disaster scale that it caused.Bayesian classification analytical method is a common and widely used statistic method.This paper discusses the Bayesian classification analytical method applied to early judgment of earthquake emergency response level.Taking information about a quake(e.g.magnitude and population density of an area around the epicenter,etc.) as the parameters,classification rules for earthquake emergency response level are established through the analysis of the China continent earthquake samples that caused disasters in the year between 1949 and 2008.Consequently,a simple and quick early judgment method of earthquake emergency response level is derived.The method is effective by test.
Once a devastating earthquake hits China continent,the relevant departments should start certain appropriate emergency response level to provide disaster relief according to the emergency plan.Judging a quake emergency response level is something equivalent to classifying the quake by the disaster scale that it caused.Bayesian classification analytical method is a common and widely used statistic method.This paper discusses the Bayesian classification analytical method applied to early judgment of earthquake emergency response level.Taking information about a quake(e.g.magnitude and population density of an area around the epicenter,etc.) as the parameters,classification rules for earthquake emergency response level are established through the analysis of the China continent earthquake samples that caused disasters in the year between 1949 and 2008.Consequently,a simple and quick early judgment method of earthquake emergency response level is derived.The method is effective by test.
引文
[1]刘在涛.从玉树地震解析中国应急响应机制[J].中国应急救援,2010,(5):18-21.
[2]中国地震局震害防御司.中国近代地震目录(公元1912—1990年,MS≥4.7)[M].北京:中国科学技术出版社,1999.
[3]国家地震局,国家统计局.中国大陆地震灾害损失评估汇编(1990—1995)[M].北京:地震出版社,1996.
[4]中国地震局监测预报司.中国大陆地震灾害损失评估汇编(1996—2000)[M].北京:地震出版社,2001.
[5]陈棋福,郑大林,车时,等.中国震例(2000—2002)[M].北京:地震出版社,2008.
[6]雷怀英.贝叶斯判别在证券优劣评价中的应用[J].山西统计,1999,(9):23-24.
[7]吴荣,聂晓燕,王阶,等.基于贝叶斯网络的名老中医治疗冠心病辩证规律研究[J].中国中医药信息杂志,2010,17(5):98-99.
[8]何希鹏,李争,何军.贝叶斯判别分析在江陵凹陷测井解释中的应用[J].江汉石油科技,1998,8(2):28-31.
[9]何伟,孔梦荣,赵海青.基于贝叶斯分类器的气象预测研究[J].计算机工程与设计,2007,28(15):3 780-3 782.
[10]田絮资.区域地貌中的聚类分析及贝叶斯判别方法[J].西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版),2003,31(5):178-182.
[11]蒋春花,金学申,刘志辉.贝叶斯判别准则在确定地震活动性参数空间分布函数中的应用[J].华北地震科学,1999,17(2):19-22.
[12]张焱,季恒清.应用多元回归分析和贝叶斯判别预测稻瘿蚊发生趋势[J].四川师范学院学报(自然科学版),1997,18(2):101-106.
[13]邰淑彩,孙韫玉,何娟娟.应用数理统计(第二版)[M].武汉:武汉大学出版社,2005.266-279.
[14]袁志发,宋世德.多元统计分析(第二版)[M].北京:科学出版社,2009.266-271.
[15]傅征祥,李革平.地震生命损失研究[M].北京:地震出版社,1993.48-66.
[16]尹之潜.地震灾害及损失预测方法[M].北京:地震出版社,1996.109-117.
①http://www.csndmc.ac.cn
①http://www.spss.com.cn/index.aspx
[2]中国地震局震害防御司.中国近代地震目录(公元1912—1990年,MS≥4.7)[M].北京:中国科学技术出版社,1999.
[3]国家地震局,国家统计局.中国大陆地震灾害损失评估汇编(1990—1995)[M].北京:地震出版社,1996.
[4]中国地震局监测预报司.中国大陆地震灾害损失评估汇编(1996—2000)[M].北京:地震出版社,2001.
[5]陈棋福,郑大林,车时,等.中国震例(2000—2002)[M].北京:地震出版社,2008.
[6]雷怀英.贝叶斯判别在证券优劣评价中的应用[J].山西统计,1999,(9):23-24.
[7]吴荣,聂晓燕,王阶,等.基于贝叶斯网络的名老中医治疗冠心病辩证规律研究[J].中国中医药信息杂志,2010,17(5):98-99.
[8]何希鹏,李争,何军.贝叶斯判别分析在江陵凹陷测井解释中的应用[J].江汉石油科技,1998,8(2):28-31.
[9]何伟,孔梦荣,赵海青.基于贝叶斯分类器的气象预测研究[J].计算机工程与设计,2007,28(15):3 780-3 782.
[10]田絮资.区域地貌中的聚类分析及贝叶斯判别方法[J].西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版),2003,31(5):178-182.
[11]蒋春花,金学申,刘志辉.贝叶斯判别准则在确定地震活动性参数空间分布函数中的应用[J].华北地震科学,1999,17(2):19-22.
[12]张焱,季恒清.应用多元回归分析和贝叶斯判别预测稻瘿蚊发生趋势[J].四川师范学院学报(自然科学版),1997,18(2):101-106.
[13]邰淑彩,孙韫玉,何娟娟.应用数理统计(第二版)[M].武汉:武汉大学出版社,2005.266-279.
[14]袁志发,宋世德.多元统计分析(第二版)[M].北京:科学出版社,2009.266-271.
[15]傅征祥,李革平.地震生命损失研究[M].北京:地震出版社,1993.48-66.
[16]尹之潜.地震灾害及损失预测方法[M].北京:地震出版社,1996.109-117.
①http://www.csndmc.ac.cn
①http://www.spss.com.cn/index.aspx
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