潜在地震滑坡危险区区划方法
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摘要
不同地区地震活动的强度和频率是不同的.基于地震危险性分析的地震滑坡危险研究在综合了地震烈度、位置、复发时间等因素的基础上,考虑了地震动峰值加速度时空分布的特点,可以有效地应用于潜在地震滑坡危险区区划.以汶川地震灾区为研究对象,根据研究区的地质构造、地震活动特点等划分出灾区的潜在震源区,对该区进行地震危险性分析,并在此基础上采用综合指标法做出基于地震危险性分析的地震滑坡危险性区划.所得地震滑坡危险性区划按照滑坡危险程度分为高危险、较高危险、较低危险和低危险四级,表示未来一段时间内研究区在遭受一定超越概率水平的地震动作用下,不同地区地震滑坡发生的可能程度.本文给出的地震滑坡危险性区划结果中,汶川地震滑坡崩塌较发育的汶川、北川、茂县等部分区域均处于高危险或较高危险区域;在对具有较高DEM精度的北川擂鼓镇地区所作的地震滑坡危险性区划中,汶川地震中实际发生的地震滑坡灾害与地震滑坡危险区划结果表现出较好的一致性.对区域范围而言,基于地震危险性分析的地震滑坡区划,可为初期阶段的土地规划使用及重大工程选址提供参考.
Earthquake-induced landslide is different from landslide triggered by rainstorms.Compared with landslides caused by rain,landslides induced by earthquake have more wide and dense space distribution and bigger scale,and can cause tremendous loss both to properties and lives.Earthquake-induced landslides usually cannot be prevented by current mitigation measures,thus,it becomes more and more important to develop a useful skill of assessing the hazard of landslides triggered by earthquake for land planning.This paper presents a method for zonation of potential earthquake-induced landslide area based on seismic hazard analysis.The approach takes account of uncertainty about earthquake location,intensity and recurrence,as well as space distribution of seismic peak ground acceleration.The study selects the damaged region in 2008.5.12 Wenchuan Earthquake as target area,and divided potential seismic source zone on the studying of geology,tectonics and seismic activity in this region.On the basis of potential seismic source zone division,this paper calculates the seismic peak ground acceleration according to different probability of exceedance of 10%,5% and 2% in 50a using seismic hazard analysis method proposed by Cornell in 1968,and then assesses earthquake-induced landslide hazard of study region with comprehensive indexes model.In this model,the hazard is classified into 4 grades as high,secondary high,secondary low and low,and five indexes are used including seismic peak ground acceleration,slope angle,rock type,and distance to faults and rivers.The result of hazards zonation for potential earthquake-induced landslide in the study area shows that landslide areas in Wenchuan earthquake such as Wenchuan county,Beichuan county,Maoxian county et al,are located at areas of high or secondary high grades.In Leiguzhen area of Beichuan county,where high resolution DEM data is available,the zonation result shows good correlation with reality.The assessed result can be used as reference for primary land planning and site choosing for great projects.
Earthquake-induced landslide is different from landslide triggered by rainstorms.Compared with landslides caused by rain,landslides induced by earthquake have more wide and dense space distribution and bigger scale,and can cause tremendous loss both to properties and lives.Earthquake-induced landslides usually cannot be prevented by current mitigation measures,thus,it becomes more and more important to develop a useful skill of assessing the hazard of landslides triggered by earthquake for land planning.This paper presents a method for zonation of potential earthquake-induced landslide area based on seismic hazard analysis.The approach takes account of uncertainty about earthquake location,intensity and recurrence,as well as space distribution of seismic peak ground acceleration.The study selects the damaged region in 2008.5.12 Wenchuan Earthquake as target area,and divided potential seismic source zone on the studying of geology,tectonics and seismic activity in this region.On the basis of potential seismic source zone division,this paper calculates the seismic peak ground acceleration according to different probability of exceedance of 10%,5% and 2% in 50a using seismic hazard analysis method proposed by Cornell in 1968,and then assesses earthquake-induced landslide hazard of study region with comprehensive indexes model.In this model,the hazard is classified into 4 grades as high,secondary high,secondary low and low,and five indexes are used including seismic peak ground acceleration,slope angle,rock type,and distance to faults and rivers.The result of hazards zonation for potential earthquake-induced landslide in the study area shows that landslide areas in Wenchuan earthquake such as Wenchuan county,Beichuan county,Maoxian county et al,are located at areas of high or secondary high grades.In Leiguzhen area of Beichuan county,where high resolution DEM data is available,the zonation result shows good correlation with reality.The assessed result can be used as reference for primary land planning and site choosing for great projects.
引文
[1]殷跃平.汶川八级地震地质灾害研究.工程地质学报,2008,16(4):433-444.Yin Y P.Researchs on the geo-hazards triggered byWenchuan Earthquake,Sichuan.Journal of EngineeringGeology(in Chinese),2008,16(4):433-444.
[2]黄润秋,李为乐.“5.12”汶川大地震触发地质灾害的发育分布规律研究.岩石力学与工程学报,2008,27(12):2585-2592.Huang R Q,Li W L.Research on development anddistribution rules of geohazards induced by WenchuanEarthquake on 12th may,2008.Chinese Journal of RockMechanics and Engineering(in Chinese),2007,27(12):2585-2592.
[3]祁生文,许强,刘春玲等.汶川地震极重灾区地质背景及次生斜坡灾害空间发育规律.工程地质学报,2009,17(1):39-49.Qi S W,Xu Q,Liu C L,et al.Slope instabilities in theseverest disaster areas of 5.12 Wenchuan Earthquake.Journal of Engineering Geology(in Chinese),2009,17(1):39-49.
[4]Guzzetti F,Carrara A,Cardinali M,et al.Landslide hazardevaluation:a review of current techniques and their application ina multi-scale study,Central Italy.Geomorphology,1999,31(1-4):181-216.
[5]Bommer J J,Rodríguez C E.Earthquake-induced landslidesin Central America.Engineering Geology,2002,63(3-4):189-220.
[6]王兰民,袁中夏,石玉成等.黄土地震灾害区划指标与方法研究.自然灾害学报,1999,18(3):87-92.Wang L M,Yuan Z X,Shi Y C,et al.Study on the methodsand indexes of zonation for seismic losessal disasters.Journalof Natural Disasters(in Chinese),1999,18(3):87-92.
[7]Keeper D K.Landslides caused by earthquakes.GeologicalSociety of America Bulletin,1984,95(4):406-421.
[8]Zhou B G,Zhang Y M.Some characteristics of earthquake-induced landslide in southwestern China.NorthwesternSeismological Journal,1994,16(1):95-103.
[9]Havenith H B,Vanini M,Jongmans D,et al.Initiation ofearthquake-induced slope failure:influence of topographicaland other site specific amplification effects.Journal ofSeismology,2003,7(3):397-412.
[10]辛鸿博,王余庆.岩土边坡地震崩滑及其初判准则.岩土工程学报,1999,21(5):591-594.Xin H B,Wang Y Q.Earthquake-induced landslide andavalanche.Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering(inChinese),1999,21(5):591-594.
[11]李天池.地震与滑坡的关系及地震滑坡预测的探讨(节录).∥滑坡文集(二).北京:人民铁道出版社,1979.Li T C.Relationship between earthquake and landslides andprediction of earthquake induced landslides.∥LandslideAnthology(II)(in Chinese).Beijing:The People′s RailwayPublishing House,1979.
[12]Newmark N M.Effects of earthquakes on dams andembankments.Geotechnique,1965,15(2):139-160.
[13]Jibson R W,Harp E L,Michael J A.A method forproducing digital probabilistic seismic landslide hazard maps.Engineering Geology,2000,58(3-4):271-289.
[14]Jibson R W,Michael J A.Maps showing seismic landslidehazards in Anchorage,Alaska.http:∥pubs.usgs.gov/sim/3077.
[15]Miles S B,Keefer D K.Seismic landslide hazard for the cityof Berkeley,California.USGS,Open file,2001.
[16]胡聿贤.地震安全性评价技术教程.北京:地震出版社,1999.Hu Y X.Seismic Safety Evaluation(in Chinese).Beijing:Seismological Press,1999.
[17]中国地震局地震动参数区划图编委会.中国地震动参数区划图.北京:中国标准出版社,2001.Chinese Seismic Ground Motion Zoning Working Group.Seismic Zoning Map in China(in Chinese).Beijing:StandardsPress of China,2001.
[18]全国地震区划图编制委员会.四川、陕西、甘肃部分地区地震动峰值加速度区划图.国家质量监督检验检疫总局和国家标准化管理委员会批准颁布,2008.Chinese Seismic Zoning Working Group.Peak groundacceleration zoning map of Sichuan,Shaanxi,Gansu provinces(inChinese).Approved by General Administration of QualitySupervision Inspection&Quarantine of People′s Republic ofChina and the National Standardization Administration ofPeople′s Republic of China,2008.
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[20]Australian Geomechanics Society Landslide Zoning WorkingGroup.Guideline for landslide susceptibility,hazard and riskzoning for land use planning.2007.Australian geomechanicsvol 42No.1March.
[21]National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management,Ministry of Land,Infrastructure,Transport and Tourism.Astudy on methodology for assessing the potential of slopefailures during earthquakes.Japan,2004.
[22]Report on damage to the Infrastructures by the 2004 MidNiigata Prefecture Earthquake.National Institute for Landand Infrastructure Management,Ministry of Land,Infrastructure,Transport and Tourism.Japan,2006.
[23]Wang H B,Sassa K,Xu W Y.Analysis of a spatialdistribution of landslides triggered by the 2004 Chuetsuearthquakes of Niigata Prefecture,Japan.Nat.Hazards,2007,41(1):43-60.
[24]夏元友.系统加权聚类法及其在滑坡稳定性预测中的应用.自然灾害学报,1997,6(3):85-91.Xia Y Y.A hierarchical weighted clustering method and itsapplication in predicting landslide stability.Journal ofNatural Disasters(in Chinese),1997,6(3):85-91.
[25]夏元友,朱瑞庚.不稳定边坡治理方案的多层次模糊综合群决策.自然灾害学报,1998,7(1):61-65.Xia Y Y,Zhu R G.Multiperson multilayer fuzzycomprehensive decision making for control plans of unstableslopes.Journal of Natural Disasters(in Chinese),1998,7(1):61-65.
[26]陈晓利,赵健,叶洪.应用径向基概率神经网络研究地震滑坡.地震地质,2006,28(3):430-440.Chen X L,Zhao J,Ye H.Application of RBPNN in theresearch of earthquake-induced landslide.Seismology andGeology(in Chinese),2006,28(3):430-440.
[27]单新建.遥感技术和地理信息系统在地质环境评价中的集成应用.北京:中国地震局地质研究所,1999.Shan X J.Integration and Application of Remote Sensing andGeographical Information System Technology for the Evaluation ofGeological Environment(in Chinese).Beijng:Institute ofGeology,CEA,1999.
[28]陈晓利,祁生文,叶洪.基于GIS的地震滑坡危险性的模糊综合评价研究.北京大学学报(自然科学版),2007,2(2):1-6.Chen X L,Qi S W,Ye H.Fuzzy comprehensive study onseismic landslide hazard based on GIS.Acta ScientiarumNaturalium Universitatis Pekinensis on Line(in Chinese),2007,2(2):1-6.
[29]Chen X L,Kato N,Tsunaki R,et al.Prediction of slopefailure due to earthquake.Chinese Science Bulletin,2009,54(16):2888-2894.
[30]陈晓利,叶洪,程菊红.GIS技术在区域地震滑坡危险性预测中的应用——以龙陵地震滑坡为例.工程地质学报,2006,14(3):334-338.Chen X L,Ye H,Cheng J H.Use of GIS in regional riskassessment of earthquake induced landslides—a case study ofearthquake induced landslides in Longling in 1976.Journalof Engineering Geology(in Chinese),2006,14(3):334-338.
[31]王余庆,辛鸿博,高艳平等.预测岩土边坡地震崩滑的综合指标法研究.岩土工程学报,2001,23(3):311-314.Wang Y Q,Xin H B,Gao Y P,et al.Study oncomprehensive index method for predicating earthquake-induced landslides.Chinese Journal Geotechnical Engineering(inChinese),2001,23(3):311-314.
[32]丁彦慧,王余庆,孙进忠等.地震崩滑预测方法及其工程应用研究.工程地质学报,2000,8(4):475-480.Ding Y H,Wang Y Q,Sun J Z,et al.Research on themethod for prediction of earthquake-induced landslides and itsapplication to engineering projects.Journal of EngineeringGeology(in Chinese),2000,8(4):475-480.
[33]陈晓利,邓俭良,冉洪流.汶川地震滑坡崩塌的空间分布特征.地震地质,2011,33(1):191-202.Chen X L,Deng J L,Ran H L.Analysis of landslidestriggered by Wenchuan Earthquake.Seismology and Geology(in Chinese),2011,33(1):191-202.
[34]王运生,罗永红,吉峰等.汶川大地震山地灾害发育的控制因素分析.工程地质学报,2008,16(6):759-763.Wang Y S,Luo Y H,Ji F,et al.Analysis of the controllingfactors on geo-hazards in mountainous epicenter zones of theWenchuan Earthquake.Journal of Engineering Geology(inChinese),2008,16(6):759-763.
[35]Heckerman D.Probabilistic interpretation of MYCIN′scertainty factors∥Kanal L N,Lemmer J F,eds.Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence.New York:Elsevier,1986:298-311.
[36]Saaty T L,Wong M M.Projecting average family size inrural India by the analytic hierarchy process.The Journal ofMathematical Sociology,1983,9(3):181-209.
[37]国家汶川地震专家委员会.汶川地震灾区地震-地质灾害图集.北京:中国地图出版社,2008.National Wenchuan Earthquake Experts Committee.Atlas ofSeismic Hazard During Wenchuan Earthquake(in Chinese).Beijing:SinoMaps Press,2008.
[38]王秀英,聂高众,王登伟.汶川地震诱发滑坡与地震动峰值加速度对应关系研究.岩石力学与工程学报,2010,29(1):82-89.Wang X Y,Nie G Z,Wang D W.Research on relationshipbetween landslides and peak ground accelerations induced byWenchuan earthquake.Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanicsand Engineering(in Chinese),2010,29(1):82-89.
[2]黄润秋,李为乐.“5.12”汶川大地震触发地质灾害的发育分布规律研究.岩石力学与工程学报,2008,27(12):2585-2592.Huang R Q,Li W L.Research on development anddistribution rules of geohazards induced by WenchuanEarthquake on 12th may,2008.Chinese Journal of RockMechanics and Engineering(in Chinese),2007,27(12):2585-2592.
[3]祁生文,许强,刘春玲等.汶川地震极重灾区地质背景及次生斜坡灾害空间发育规律.工程地质学报,2009,17(1):39-49.Qi S W,Xu Q,Liu C L,et al.Slope instabilities in theseverest disaster areas of 5.12 Wenchuan Earthquake.Journal of Engineering Geology(in Chinese),2009,17(1):39-49.
[4]Guzzetti F,Carrara A,Cardinali M,et al.Landslide hazardevaluation:a review of current techniques and their application ina multi-scale study,Central Italy.Geomorphology,1999,31(1-4):181-216.
[5]Bommer J J,Rodríguez C E.Earthquake-induced landslidesin Central America.Engineering Geology,2002,63(3-4):189-220.
[6]王兰民,袁中夏,石玉成等.黄土地震灾害区划指标与方法研究.自然灾害学报,1999,18(3):87-92.Wang L M,Yuan Z X,Shi Y C,et al.Study on the methodsand indexes of zonation for seismic losessal disasters.Journalof Natural Disasters(in Chinese),1999,18(3):87-92.
[7]Keeper D K.Landslides caused by earthquakes.GeologicalSociety of America Bulletin,1984,95(4):406-421.
[8]Zhou B G,Zhang Y M.Some characteristics of earthquake-induced landslide in southwestern China.NorthwesternSeismological Journal,1994,16(1):95-103.
[9]Havenith H B,Vanini M,Jongmans D,et al.Initiation ofearthquake-induced slope failure:influence of topographicaland other site specific amplification effects.Journal ofSeismology,2003,7(3):397-412.
[10]辛鸿博,王余庆.岩土边坡地震崩滑及其初判准则.岩土工程学报,1999,21(5):591-594.Xin H B,Wang Y Q.Earthquake-induced landslide andavalanche.Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering(inChinese),1999,21(5):591-594.
[11]李天池.地震与滑坡的关系及地震滑坡预测的探讨(节录).∥滑坡文集(二).北京:人民铁道出版社,1979.Li T C.Relationship between earthquake and landslides andprediction of earthquake induced landslides.∥LandslideAnthology(II)(in Chinese).Beijing:The People′s RailwayPublishing House,1979.
[12]Newmark N M.Effects of earthquakes on dams andembankments.Geotechnique,1965,15(2):139-160.
[13]Jibson R W,Harp E L,Michael J A.A method forproducing digital probabilistic seismic landslide hazard maps.Engineering Geology,2000,58(3-4):271-289.
[14]Jibson R W,Michael J A.Maps showing seismic landslidehazards in Anchorage,Alaska.http:∥pubs.usgs.gov/sim/3077.
[15]Miles S B,Keefer D K.Seismic landslide hazard for the cityof Berkeley,California.USGS,Open file,2001.
[16]胡聿贤.地震安全性评价技术教程.北京:地震出版社,1999.Hu Y X.Seismic Safety Evaluation(in Chinese).Beijing:Seismological Press,1999.
[17]中国地震局地震动参数区划图编委会.中国地震动参数区划图.北京:中国标准出版社,2001.Chinese Seismic Ground Motion Zoning Working Group.Seismic Zoning Map in China(in Chinese).Beijing:StandardsPress of China,2001.
[18]全国地震区划图编制委员会.四川、陕西、甘肃部分地区地震动峰值加速度区划图.国家质量监督检验检疫总局和国家标准化管理委员会批准颁布,2008.Chinese Seismic Zoning Working Group.Peak groundacceleration zoning map of Sichuan,Shaanxi,Gansu provinces(inChinese).Approved by General Administration of QualitySupervision Inspection&Quarantine of People′s Republic ofChina and the National Standardization Administration ofPeople′s Republic of China,2008.
[19]国家地震局地震烈度区划编委会.中国地震烈度区划图.北京:地震出版社,1990.Seismic Intensity Zoning Group,State Seismological Bureau.Chinese Seismic Intensity Zoning Map(in Chinese).Beijing:Seismological Press,1990.
[20]Australian Geomechanics Society Landslide Zoning WorkingGroup.Guideline for landslide susceptibility,hazard and riskzoning for land use planning.2007.Australian geomechanicsvol 42No.1March.
[21]National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management,Ministry of Land,Infrastructure,Transport and Tourism.Astudy on methodology for assessing the potential of slopefailures during earthquakes.Japan,2004.
[22]Report on damage to the Infrastructures by the 2004 MidNiigata Prefecture Earthquake.National Institute for Landand Infrastructure Management,Ministry of Land,Infrastructure,Transport and Tourism.Japan,2006.
[23]Wang H B,Sassa K,Xu W Y.Analysis of a spatialdistribution of landslides triggered by the 2004 Chuetsuearthquakes of Niigata Prefecture,Japan.Nat.Hazards,2007,41(1):43-60.
[24]夏元友.系统加权聚类法及其在滑坡稳定性预测中的应用.自然灾害学报,1997,6(3):85-91.Xia Y Y.A hierarchical weighted clustering method and itsapplication in predicting landslide stability.Journal ofNatural Disasters(in Chinese),1997,6(3):85-91.
[25]夏元友,朱瑞庚.不稳定边坡治理方案的多层次模糊综合群决策.自然灾害学报,1998,7(1):61-65.Xia Y Y,Zhu R G.Multiperson multilayer fuzzycomprehensive decision making for control plans of unstableslopes.Journal of Natural Disasters(in Chinese),1998,7(1):61-65.
[26]陈晓利,赵健,叶洪.应用径向基概率神经网络研究地震滑坡.地震地质,2006,28(3):430-440.Chen X L,Zhao J,Ye H.Application of RBPNN in theresearch of earthquake-induced landslide.Seismology andGeology(in Chinese),2006,28(3):430-440.
[27]单新建.遥感技术和地理信息系统在地质环境评价中的集成应用.北京:中国地震局地质研究所,1999.Shan X J.Integration and Application of Remote Sensing andGeographical Information System Technology for the Evaluation ofGeological Environment(in Chinese).Beijng:Institute ofGeology,CEA,1999.
[28]陈晓利,祁生文,叶洪.基于GIS的地震滑坡危险性的模糊综合评价研究.北京大学学报(自然科学版),2007,2(2):1-6.Chen X L,Qi S W,Ye H.Fuzzy comprehensive study onseismic landslide hazard based on GIS.Acta ScientiarumNaturalium Universitatis Pekinensis on Line(in Chinese),2007,2(2):1-6.
[29]Chen X L,Kato N,Tsunaki R,et al.Prediction of slopefailure due to earthquake.Chinese Science Bulletin,2009,54(16):2888-2894.
[30]陈晓利,叶洪,程菊红.GIS技术在区域地震滑坡危险性预测中的应用——以龙陵地震滑坡为例.工程地质学报,2006,14(3):334-338.Chen X L,Ye H,Cheng J H.Use of GIS in regional riskassessment of earthquake induced landslides—a case study ofearthquake induced landslides in Longling in 1976.Journalof Engineering Geology(in Chinese),2006,14(3):334-338.
[31]王余庆,辛鸿博,高艳平等.预测岩土边坡地震崩滑的综合指标法研究.岩土工程学报,2001,23(3):311-314.Wang Y Q,Xin H B,Gao Y P,et al.Study oncomprehensive index method for predicating earthquake-induced landslides.Chinese Journal Geotechnical Engineering(inChinese),2001,23(3):311-314.
[32]丁彦慧,王余庆,孙进忠等.地震崩滑预测方法及其工程应用研究.工程地质学报,2000,8(4):475-480.Ding Y H,Wang Y Q,Sun J Z,et al.Research on themethod for prediction of earthquake-induced landslides and itsapplication to engineering projects.Journal of EngineeringGeology(in Chinese),2000,8(4):475-480.
[33]陈晓利,邓俭良,冉洪流.汶川地震滑坡崩塌的空间分布特征.地震地质,2011,33(1):191-202.Chen X L,Deng J L,Ran H L.Analysis of landslidestriggered by Wenchuan Earthquake.Seismology and Geology(in Chinese),2011,33(1):191-202.
[34]王运生,罗永红,吉峰等.汶川大地震山地灾害发育的控制因素分析.工程地质学报,2008,16(6):759-763.Wang Y S,Luo Y H,Ji F,et al.Analysis of the controllingfactors on geo-hazards in mountainous epicenter zones of theWenchuan Earthquake.Journal of Engineering Geology(inChinese),2008,16(6):759-763.
[35]Heckerman D.Probabilistic interpretation of MYCIN′scertainty factors∥Kanal L N,Lemmer J F,eds.Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence.New York:Elsevier,1986:298-311.
[36]Saaty T L,Wong M M.Projecting average family size inrural India by the analytic hierarchy process.The Journal ofMathematical Sociology,1983,9(3):181-209.
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