地震引起的边坡灾害风险分析实用技术(英文)
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摘要
提出和讨论在由地震引起的边坡灾害风险分析中的一些实用技术和方法,给出频度分析和影响分析中的具体步骤。为使蒙特卡罗(Monte Carlo)模拟法更加容易和更加有效,首次提出"临界线"这一新的概念。在计算边坡破坏概率时,只要求计算模型的"临界线",不用对每一个随机采样点进行安全分析。在评价边坡破坏后可能引起的经济损失影响分析中,关键在于如何正确估计从边坡流下的土石运动速度、到达范围及堆积形状等数据。提出用DDA模拟来解决这一问题,因为DDA模拟不仅可以计算复杂边坡模型的破坏概率,而且可以得到该边坡破坏后从边坡流下的土石运动特性。对一些已破坏边坡的DDA模拟结果表明,计算出的土石运动特性与实际结果基本吻合。因此,提出的方法可适用于地震引起的边坡灾害风险分析。
The practical techniques for risk analysis of earthquake-induced landslide are presented and discussed. The procedure of frequency analysis and consequence analysis for earthquake-induced landslide is proposed. A new concept of "critical line" proposed for the first time can make Monte Carlo simulation easier and more effective. The key problem in consequence analysis is how to estimate the travel distance,velocity and volume distribution of landslide,which can be solved by using the discontinuous deformation analysis(DDA) simulation. The results from a practical DDA simulation show the agreement with those observed from the past landslides. Therefore,the proposed way for risk analysis of earthquake-induced landslide will be put into practical use.
The practical techniques for risk analysis of earthquake-induced landslide are presented and discussed. The procedure of frequency analysis and consequence analysis for earthquake-induced landslide is proposed. A new concept of "critical line" proposed for the first time can make Monte Carlo simulation easier and more effective. The key problem in consequence analysis is how to estimate the travel distance,velocity and volume distribution of landslide,which can be solved by using the discontinuous deformation analysis(DDA) simulation. The results from a practical DDA simulation show the agreement with those observed from the past landslides. Therefore,the proposed way for risk analysis of earthquake-induced landslide will be put into practical use.
引文
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[4] CHEN G,OHNISHI Y. A nonlinear model for discontinuities in DDA[C]// AMADEI Y ed. Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Analysis of Discontinuous Deformation. [S.l.]:[s.n.], 1999:57–64.
[5] ISHIKAWA Y. Study on the probability of potential earthquake and its applications[Ph. D. Thesis][D]. Kyoto:Kyoto University,1998.
[6] Australian Geomechanics Society. Landslide risk management-concept and guidelines[J]. Australian Geomechanics,2000,35(1):51–92.
[7] SHEIDEGGER A E. On the prediction of the reach and velocity of catastrophic landslides[J]. Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering, 1973,5(4):231–236.
[8] MORIWAKI H. A prediction of the travel distance of a debris[J]. Journal of the Japan Landslide Society,1987,24(2):10–15.
[2] SHI G. Discontinuous deformation analysis:a new numerical model for the static and dynamics of block systems[Ph. D. Thesis][D]. Berkeley:University of California,1988.
[3] CHEN G. Numerical modeling of rock fall using extended DDA[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2003,22(6): 926–931.
[4] CHEN G,OHNISHI Y. A nonlinear model for discontinuities in DDA[C]// AMADEI Y ed. Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Analysis of Discontinuous Deformation. [S.l.]:[s.n.], 1999:57–64.
[5] ISHIKAWA Y. Study on the probability of potential earthquake and its applications[Ph. D. Thesis][D]. Kyoto:Kyoto University,1998.
[6] Australian Geomechanics Society. Landslide risk management-concept and guidelines[J]. Australian Geomechanics,2000,35(1):51–92.
[7] SHEIDEGGER A E. On the prediction of the reach and velocity of catastrophic landslides[J]. Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering, 1973,5(4):231–236.
[8] MORIWAKI H. A prediction of the travel distance of a debris[J]. Journal of the Japan Landslide Society,1987,24(2):10–15.
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