基于综合指标法的芦山地震滑坡危险区等级快速划分
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摘要
山区强烈地震诱发的滑坡崩塌是一种致灾严重、发生范围较广的灾害,进行地震滑坡危险区划是降低损失的有效手段之一。以2013年4月20日MW7.0芦山地震为例,以芦山县、宝兴县及其周边受滑坡崩塌灾害影响较为严重的区域作为研究对象,选定地层岩性、坡度、地震烈度、距断层距离和距水系距离等5类与地震滑坡关系密切的影响因子,采用层次分析法确定每个影响因子的权重,继而采取综合指标法,将研究区划分为低危险、中度危险、较高危险和最高危险4个等级的危险区,用以表示该区域在遭受给定的地震烈度作用下发生地震滑坡的可能性的大小。实地勘察的滑坡点分布与预测的地震滑坡危险区的对比表明,两者吻合程度较高,约有77%的滑坡点落在较高危险和最高危险区。研究成果可为地震滑坡灾害应急、山区地震滑坡预测、滑坡灾害预防等工作提供参考依据。
Strong earthquake-induced landslides in mountainous region often cause serious damages to buildings,transportation route,lifeline engineering etc. It is one of the major reasons causing significant casualties and economic losses of property. For such serious and wide range disasters,doing classification for earthquake-induced landslide hazard zones is one of the effective methods for reducing losses. This paper,based on former studies,takes Lushan earthquake on April 20,2013 as a sample and selects Lushan County, Baoxing County and the surrounding area, which were influenced seriously by landslide,as a study area. This paper takes comprehensive indexes method to classify earthquake-induced landslide hazard zones for this area. There are 5 impact factors,including lithology,slope,seismic intensity,distances from faults and distances from drainages,are selected and weight is determined for each factor by AHP( the Analytic Hierarchy Process). The study area then is classified into 4 levels of hazards zones by comprehensive indexes method to indicate possibilities of triggering landslide in region under the suffering from given seismic intensities. The paper makes a comparison between the existing landslide sites map and the earthquake-induced landslide hazard zoning map. The results show a relatively high match between the two maps( about77% landslide sites are in the higher hazard zones and highest hazard zones). This research will provide a reference for emergency response of earthquake-induced landslide disaster,prediction of earthquake-induced landslides in mountainous area and prevention of landslide disaster.
Strong earthquake-induced landslides in mountainous region often cause serious damages to buildings,transportation route,lifeline engineering etc. It is one of the major reasons causing significant casualties and economic losses of property. For such serious and wide range disasters,doing classification for earthquake-induced landslide hazard zones is one of the effective methods for reducing losses. This paper,based on former studies,takes Lushan earthquake on April 20,2013 as a sample and selects Lushan County, Baoxing County and the surrounding area, which were influenced seriously by landslide,as a study area. This paper takes comprehensive indexes method to classify earthquake-induced landslide hazard zones for this area. There are 5 impact factors,including lithology,slope,seismic intensity,distances from faults and distances from drainages,are selected and weight is determined for each factor by AHP( the Analytic Hierarchy Process). The study area then is classified into 4 levels of hazards zones by comprehensive indexes method to indicate possibilities of triggering landslide in region under the suffering from given seismic intensities. The paper makes a comparison between the existing landslide sites map and the earthquake-induced landslide hazard zoning map. The results show a relatively high match between the two maps( about77% landslide sites are in the higher hazard zones and highest hazard zones). This research will provide a reference for emergency response of earthquake-induced landslide disaster,prediction of earthquake-induced landslides in mountainous area and prevention of landslide disaster.
引文
白云峰.2005.顺层岩质边坡稳定性及工程设计研究[D]:[学位论文].成都:西南交通大学.BAI Yun-feng.2005.Study on stability and designing of consequent bedding rock cut slope[D].Ph D thesis.Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu(in Chinese).
陈晓利,冉洪流,祁生文.2009.1976年龙陵地震诱发滑坡的影响因子敏感性分析[J].北京大学学报:自然科学版,45(1):104—110.CHEN Xiao-li,RAN Hong-liu,QI Sheng-wen.2009.Triggering factors susceptibility of earthquake-induced landslidesin 1976 Longling earthquake[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis,45(1):104—110(inChinese).
陈晓利,周本刚,冉洪流,等.2010.汶川地震中擂鼓镇地区的滑坡崩塌规律及预测[J].吉林大学学报(地球科学版),6:1371—1379.CHEN Xiao-li,ZHOU Ben-gang,RAN Hong-liu,et al.2010.Analysis and prediction of the spatial distribution oflandslides triggered by Wenchuan earthquakes in Leiguzhen region[J].Journal of Jilin University(Earth ScienceEdition),6:1371—1379(in Chinese).
陈晓清,崔鹏,程尊兰,等.2008.5.12汶川地震堰塞湖危险性应急评估[J].地学前缘,15(4):244—249.CHEN Xiao-qing,CUI Peng,CHENG Zun-lan,et al.2008.Emergency risk assessment of dammed lakes caused bythe Wenchuan earthquake on May 12,2008[J].Earth Science Frontiers,15(4):244—249(in Chinese).
祁生文,伍法权,刘春玲,等.2004.地震边坡稳定性的工程地质分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,23(16):2792—2797.QI Sheng-wen,WU Fa-quan,LIU Chun-ling,et al.2004.Engineering geology analysis on stability of slope underearthquake[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,23(16):2792—2797(in Chinese).
乔建平,蒲晓虹,王萌,等.2009.汶川地震滑坡的分布特点及最大震中距分析[J].自然灾害学报,18(5):10—15.QIAO Jian-ping,PU Xiao-hong,WANG Meng,et al.2009.Analysis of distribution characteristics of landslideinduced by Wenchuan earthquake and relevant maximum epicenter distance[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,18(5):10—15(in Chinese).
单新建.1999.遥感技术和地理信息系统在地质环境评价中的集成应用[D]:[学位论文].北京:中国地震局地质研究所.SHAN Xin-jian.1999.An integrated application of remote sensing and GIS to geo-environment evaluation[D].Ph DDissertation.Institute of Geology,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing(in Chinese).
孙崇绍,蔡红卫.1997.中国历史地震时滑坡崩塌的发育及分布特征[J].自然灾害学报,6(1):25—30.SUN Chong-shao,CAI Hong-wei.1997.Developing and distributing characteristics of collapses and landslides duringstrong historic earthquake in China[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,6(1):25—30(in Chinese).
王世新,周艺,魏成阶,等.2008.汶川地震重灾区堰塞湖次生灾害危险性遥感评价[J].遥感学报,12(6):900—907.WANG Shi-xin,ZHOU Yi,WEI Cheng-jie,et al.2008.Risk evaluation on the secondary disasters of dammed lakesusing remote sensing datasets in the Wenchuan earthquake[J].Journal of Remote Sensing,12(6):900—907(in Chinese).
辛鸿博,王余庆.1999.岩土边坡地震崩滑及其初判准则[J].岩土工程学报,21(5):591—594.XIN Hong-bo,WANG Yu-qing.1999.Earthquake-induced landslide and avalanche[J].Chinese Journal ofGeotechnical Engineering,21(5):591—594(in Chinese).
许冲,戴福初,姚鑫,等.2010.基于GIS的汶川地震滑坡灾害影响因子确定性系数分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,S1:2972—2981.XU Chong,DAI Fu-chu,YAO Xin,et al.2010.GIS based certainty factor analysis of landslide triggering factors inWenchuan earthquake[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,S1:2972—2981(in Chinese).
Ayalew L,Yamagishi H,Marui H,et al.2005.Landslides in Sado Island of Japan:PartⅡ.GIS-based susceptibilitymapping with comparisons of results from two methods and verifications[J].Eng Geol,81:432—445.doi:10.1016/j.enggeo.2005.08.004.
Bai S B,Wang J,Lu G N,et al.2009.GIS-based and data-driven bivariate landslide-Susceptibility mapping in theThree Gorges area,China[J].Pedosphere,19(1):14—20.
Bai S B,Wang J,Zhang Z G,et al.2012.Combined landslide susceptibility mapping after Wenchuan earthquake atthe Zhouqu segment in the Bailongjiang Basin,China[J].Catena,99:18—25.
Bai S B,Xu Q,Wang J,et al.2013.Pre-conditioning factors and susceptibility assessments of Wenchuan earthquakelandslide at the Zhouqu segment of Bailongjiang Basin,China[J].Journal of the Geological Society of India,82:108.
Bai S B,Wang J,Thiebes B,et al.2014.Susceptibility assessments of the Wenchuan earthquake-triggered landslidesin Longnan using logistic regression[J].Environmental Earth Sciences,71:731—743.
Keeper D K.1984.Landslides caused by earthquakes[J].Geological Society of America Bulletin,95(4):406—421.
Mark R K,Ellen S D.1995.Statistical and simulation models for mapping debris-flow hazard[A].In:Carrara A,Guzzetti F(eds).Geographical Information Systems in Assessing Natural Hazards,93—106.
Yalcin A.2008.GIS-based landslide susceptibility mapping using analytical hierarchy process and bivariate statisticsin Ardesen(Turkey):Comparisons of results and confirmations[J].Catena,72:1—12.doi:10.1016/j.catena.2007.01.003.
陈晓利,冉洪流,祁生文.2009.1976年龙陵地震诱发滑坡的影响因子敏感性分析[J].北京大学学报:自然科学版,45(1):104—110.CHEN Xiao-li,RAN Hong-liu,QI Sheng-wen.2009.Triggering factors susceptibility of earthquake-induced landslidesin 1976 Longling earthquake[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis,45(1):104—110(inChinese).
陈晓利,周本刚,冉洪流,等.2010.汶川地震中擂鼓镇地区的滑坡崩塌规律及预测[J].吉林大学学报(地球科学版),6:1371—1379.CHEN Xiao-li,ZHOU Ben-gang,RAN Hong-liu,et al.2010.Analysis and prediction of the spatial distribution oflandslides triggered by Wenchuan earthquakes in Leiguzhen region[J].Journal of Jilin University(Earth ScienceEdition),6:1371—1379(in Chinese).
陈晓清,崔鹏,程尊兰,等.2008.5.12汶川地震堰塞湖危险性应急评估[J].地学前缘,15(4):244—249.CHEN Xiao-qing,CUI Peng,CHENG Zun-lan,et al.2008.Emergency risk assessment of dammed lakes caused bythe Wenchuan earthquake on May 12,2008[J].Earth Science Frontiers,15(4):244—249(in Chinese).
祁生文,伍法权,刘春玲,等.2004.地震边坡稳定性的工程地质分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,23(16):2792—2797.QI Sheng-wen,WU Fa-quan,LIU Chun-ling,et al.2004.Engineering geology analysis on stability of slope underearthquake[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,23(16):2792—2797(in Chinese).
乔建平,蒲晓虹,王萌,等.2009.汶川地震滑坡的分布特点及最大震中距分析[J].自然灾害学报,18(5):10—15.QIAO Jian-ping,PU Xiao-hong,WANG Meng,et al.2009.Analysis of distribution characteristics of landslideinduced by Wenchuan earthquake and relevant maximum epicenter distance[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,18(5):10—15(in Chinese).
单新建.1999.遥感技术和地理信息系统在地质环境评价中的集成应用[D]:[学位论文].北京:中国地震局地质研究所.SHAN Xin-jian.1999.An integrated application of remote sensing and GIS to geo-environment evaluation[D].Ph DDissertation.Institute of Geology,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing(in Chinese).
孙崇绍,蔡红卫.1997.中国历史地震时滑坡崩塌的发育及分布特征[J].自然灾害学报,6(1):25—30.SUN Chong-shao,CAI Hong-wei.1997.Developing and distributing characteristics of collapses and landslides duringstrong historic earthquake in China[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,6(1):25—30(in Chinese).
王世新,周艺,魏成阶,等.2008.汶川地震重灾区堰塞湖次生灾害危险性遥感评价[J].遥感学报,12(6):900—907.WANG Shi-xin,ZHOU Yi,WEI Cheng-jie,et al.2008.Risk evaluation on the secondary disasters of dammed lakesusing remote sensing datasets in the Wenchuan earthquake[J].Journal of Remote Sensing,12(6):900—907(in Chinese).
辛鸿博,王余庆.1999.岩土边坡地震崩滑及其初判准则[J].岩土工程学报,21(5):591—594.XIN Hong-bo,WANG Yu-qing.1999.Earthquake-induced landslide and avalanche[J].Chinese Journal ofGeotechnical Engineering,21(5):591—594(in Chinese).
许冲,戴福初,姚鑫,等.2010.基于GIS的汶川地震滑坡灾害影响因子确定性系数分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,S1:2972—2981.XU Chong,DAI Fu-chu,YAO Xin,et al.2010.GIS based certainty factor analysis of landslide triggering factors inWenchuan earthquake[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,S1:2972—2981(in Chinese).
Ayalew L,Yamagishi H,Marui H,et al.2005.Landslides in Sado Island of Japan:PartⅡ.GIS-based susceptibilitymapping with comparisons of results from two methods and verifications[J].Eng Geol,81:432—445.doi:10.1016/j.enggeo.2005.08.004.
Bai S B,Wang J,Lu G N,et al.2009.GIS-based and data-driven bivariate landslide-Susceptibility mapping in theThree Gorges area,China[J].Pedosphere,19(1):14—20.
Bai S B,Wang J,Zhang Z G,et al.2012.Combined landslide susceptibility mapping after Wenchuan earthquake atthe Zhouqu segment in the Bailongjiang Basin,China[J].Catena,99:18—25.
Bai S B,Xu Q,Wang J,et al.2013.Pre-conditioning factors and susceptibility assessments of Wenchuan earthquakelandslide at the Zhouqu segment of Bailongjiang Basin,China[J].Journal of the Geological Society of India,82:108.
Bai S B,Wang J,Thiebes B,et al.2014.Susceptibility assessments of the Wenchuan earthquake-triggered landslidesin Longnan using logistic regression[J].Environmental Earth Sciences,71:731—743.
Keeper D K.1984.Landslides caused by earthquakes[J].Geological Society of America Bulletin,95(4):406—421.
Mark R K,Ellen S D.1995.Statistical and simulation models for mapping debris-flow hazard[A].In:Carrara A,Guzzetti F(eds).Geographical Information Systems in Assessing Natural Hazards,93—106.
Yalcin A.2008.GIS-based landslide susceptibility mapping using analytical hierarchy process and bivariate statisticsin Ardesen(Turkey):Comparisons of results and confirmations[J].Catena,72:1—12.doi:10.1016/j.catena.2007.01.003.
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