地震灾害预测基本思维模式探讨
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摘要
地震灾害能否预测,如何实现有效预测,作者认为:地震作为一种自然界的客观存在,它的孕育、发生和发展过程必然遵循着一定规律。如果认识掌握了这一规律,就可以实现预测。加强震源研究是实现地震灾害预测的基础。提高预测效果的良好途径是预测期尺度与预测方法相对应。
Whether the earthquake hazard can be predicted or not, and how are we to achieve efficacious prediction In this paper, The author thinks that earthquake is a objective reality of nature world and the developing process of seismology, occurrence has inevitably a regularity If its regularity is recognized and mastered, the prediction would be achieved Strengthening research on seismic source is the basis to achieve earthquake hazard prediction Correspondence between yardstick of prediction term and prediction method is good way to improve prediction effect
Whether the earthquake hazard can be predicted or not, and how are we to achieve efficacious prediction In this paper, The author thinks that earthquake is a objective reality of nature world and the developing process of seismology, occurrence has inevitably a regularity If its regularity is recognized and mastered, the prediction would be achieved Strengthening research on seismic source is the basis to achieve earthquake hazard prediction Correspondence between yardstick of prediction term and prediction method is good way to improve prediction effect
引文
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[4]国家教委社会科学研究与艺术教育司.自然辩证法概论[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1991,5.
[5]Gutenberg,BGandRichterCF.SeismicityoftheearthandassociatedPhenomena[M].PrincetonUniversityPress,Princeton,NewJersey,1954.
[6]傅承义,等.地球物理基础[M].北京:科学技术出版社,1985.
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[10]MogiK.EarthquakePrediction[M].AcademicPress.Japan,1985.
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[12]AkiK.Characterizationofbarriesonearthquakefault[J].J.Geophys.Res.,1979,vol.84,6140.
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[14]RiceJR.Themechanicsofearthquakerupture[A].inA.M.DziewonskiandE.Boschi(eds).PhysicsofEarth'sInterior[C].Amsterdam,North-Holland,1980:555-649.
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[16]陈.地震预报研究中的非线性问题[A].陈,傅征样,牛志仁,等编.非线性科学在地震预报中的应用[C].北京:地震出版社,1992,3-10.
[17]TurcotteDL.FractalsandchaosinGeologyandGeo-physics[M].CambridgeuniversityPress,1992.
[18]郑捷.研究地震和岩石破裂现象的非线性科学方法[A].陈,傅征样,牛志仁,等编.非线性科学在地震预报中的应用[C].北京:地震出版社,1992:45-53.
[19]彭建兵,毛彦龙,范文,等.区域稳定性动力学研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2001.
[20]马润勇,彭建兵,周立新,等.黑山峡大柳树坝址区断裂构造格局与F201断层活动性研究[J].工程地质学报,2002,10(增刊):97-102.
[21]梅世蓉,冯德益,等.中国地震预报概论[M].北京:地震出版社,1993.
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