川滇地区某些地震区未来震情研判
|
摘要
运用孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论与相关预测方法,对川滇地区某些地震区未来震情进行了重新研判和分析,并给出了这些地震区未来中强震或强震的四要素预测结果.结果表明:若1973年炉霍大震不是MS7.9级,则鲜水河地震区未来有MS7.9～8.1级的地震发生;其它地震区,包括小江、西昌、云龙、宜宾-长宁以及自贡-遂宁地震区,未来都将有破坏性地震发生.
According to the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system developed by us,the earthquake situation for some seismic zones in the Sichuan and Yunnan regions is reanalyzed in the present paper.Meanwhile,the prediction results,including the magnitude,place,critical strain,and hypocentral depth of the moderate-strong or strong earthquake,are also presented.The results suggest that the destructive earthquake will occur in some seismic zones,such as Xiaojiang,Xichang,Yunlong,Yibin-Changning and Zigong-Suining seismic zones.However,for the future earthquake situation in Xianshuihe seismic zone,there exists uncertainty due to the magnitude error of the Luhuo earthquake occurred in 1973.Only when the actual magnitude of the Luhuo earthquake is less than MS 7.9 from the China Earthquake Data Center,an earthquake of MS 7.9~8.1 will occur in Xianshuihe seismic zone.
According to the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system developed by us,the earthquake situation for some seismic zones in the Sichuan and Yunnan regions is reanalyzed in the present paper.Meanwhile,the prediction results,including the magnitude,place,critical strain,and hypocentral depth of the moderate-strong or strong earthquake,are also presented.The results suggest that the destructive earthquake will occur in some seismic zones,such as Xiaojiang,Xichang,Yunlong,Yibin-Changning and Zigong-Suining seismic zones.However,for the future earthquake situation in Xianshuihe seismic zone,there exists uncertainty due to the magnitude error of the Luhuo earthquake occurred in 1973.Only when the actual magnitude of the Luhuo earthquake is less than MS 7.9 from the China Earthquake Data Center,an earthquake of MS 7.9~8.1 will occur in Xianshuihe seismic zone.
引文
[1]苏有锦,秦嘉政.川滇地区强地震活动与区域新构造运动的关系[J].中国地震,2001,17(1):24-34.Su Y J,Qin J Z.Strong earthquake activity and relation toregional neotectonic movement in Sichuan-Yunnan region[J].Earthquake Research in China(in Chinese),2001,17(1):24-34.
[2]秦四清,徐锡伟,胡平,等.孕震断层的多锁固段脆性破裂机制与地震预测新方法的探索[J].地球物理学报,2010,53(4):1001-1014.Qin S Q,Xu X W,Hu P,et al.Brittle failure mechanism ofmultiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system andexploration on a new way for earthquake prediction[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2010,53(4):1001-1014.
[3]秦四清,薛雷,王媛媛,等.对孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论的进一步验证及有关科学问题的讨论[J].地球物理学进展,2010,25(3):749-758.Qin S Q,Xue L,Wang Y Y,et al.Further verifications onthe brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches along aseismogenic fault system and discussions on some scienceissues[J].Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese),2010,25(3):749-758.
[4]秦四清,薛雷,徐锡伟,等.川滇地区未来强震预测与汶川MW7.9级地震孕震过程分析[J].地球物理学报,2010,53(11):2639-2650.Qin S Q,Xue L,Xu X W,et al.A prediction of strongearthquakes in the Sichuan and Yunnan regions and analysis ofthe seismogenic process of the Wenchuan MW7.9earthquake[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2010,53(11):2639-2650.
[5]秦四清,薛雷.云南盈江MS5.8级地震和缅甸MS7.2级地震预测总结及震后趋势分析[J].地球物理学进展,2011,26(2):462-468.Qin S Q,Xue L.A summary of prediction for the YingjiangMS5.8 earthquake in Yunnan and the Burma MS7.2earthquake as well as the analysis on the earthquake situationafter the earthquake[J].Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese),2011,26(2):462-468.
[6]秦四清,薛雷,李国梁,等.云南昭通“9.7地震”的前瞻性预测验证[J].地球物理学进展,2012,27(5):1837-1840.Qin S Q,Xue L,Li G L,et al.The verification of prospectiveprediction for the Zhaotong earthquakes on 7September 2012[J].Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese),2012,27(5):1837-1840.
[7]秦四清,薛雷,李国梁,等.四川省芦山“4.20”7.0级地震的前瞻性预测验证及震后趋势分析[J].地球物理学报,(待发表).Qin S Q,Xue L,Li G L,et al.The verification of prospectiveprediction for the Lushan MS7.0earthquake on 20April 2013[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),(in press).
[8]秦四清,李国梁,薛雷.锁固体破裂标志性地震震级与峰值强度点地震震级的统计关系[J].地球物理学进展,2012,27(5):1841-1844.Qin S Q,Li G L,Xue L.A statistical relation between thesymbolic earthquake magnitude and the earthquake magnitudeat peak strength point during the failure process of lookedpatch[J].Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese),2012,27(5):1841-1844.
[9]秦四清,薛雷,黄鑫,等.青海、甘肃与宁夏地区未来大地震预测分析[J].地球物理学进展,2010,25(4):1168-1174.Qin S Q,Xue L,Huang X,et al.Prediction of strongearthquakes in the Qinghai,Gansu and Ningxia regions[J].Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese),2010,25(4):1168-1174.
[10]秦四清,熊巨华,薛雷,等.强震的孕育规律与孕震模式[J].地球科学与环境学报,2011,33(3):311-316.Qin S Q,Xiong J H,Xue L,et al.Seismogenic law andmode of strong earthquakes[J].Journal of Earth Sciences andEnvironment(in Chinese),2011,33(3):311-316.
[11]俞维贤,汪一鹏,宋方敏,等.1833年云南嵩明8级大地震地表破裂带的考查研究[J].地震研究,1996,19(4):385-390.Yu W X,Wang Y P,Song F M,et al.Survey study onsurface rupture zone to Yunnan’s Songming M=8earthquake in 1833[J].Journal of Seismological Research(inChinese),1996,19(4):385-390.
[12]张之立,刘新美.1970年1月5日云南通海地震的震源特征[J].地球物理学报,1982,25(5):440-447.Zhang Z L,Liu S M.The focal characteristics of the Tonghaiearthquake,Yunnan province,on January 5,1970[J].ActaGeophysica Sinica(Chinese J.Geophys.)(in Chinese),1982,25(5):440-447.
[13]秦四清,薛雷,黄鑫,等.山东、河北、河南、山西、辽宁海城与京津地区未来中强地震预测[J].地球物理学进展,2010,25(5):1539-1549.Qin S Q,Xue L,Huang X,et al.A forward prediction ofmoderate-sized or strong earthquakes in Shandong,Hebei,Henan,Shanxi,Haicheng in Liaoning province and Beijing-Tianjin regions[J].Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese),2010,25(5):1539-1549.
[14]朱成男,陈承照.1974年云南省昭通地震破裂机制[J].地球物理学报,1976,19(4):317-329.Zhu C N,Chen C Z.The rupture mechanism of the Zhaotongearthquake of 1974in Yunnan province[J].Acta GeophysicaSinica(Chinese J.Geophys.)(in Chinese),1976,19(4):317-329.
[15]http://data.earthquake.cn/data/zhenli/liuying/zhenli/html/zhenli007.htm.
[16]顾功叙,林庭煌,时振梁,等.中国地震目录(公元前1831年-公元1969年)[M].北京:科学出版社,1983.Gu G X,Lin T H,Shi Z L,et al.The Earthquake Catalog inChina(B.C.1831-A.D.1969)(in Chinese)[M].Beijing:Science Press,1983.
[17]顾功叙,林庭煌,时振,等.中国地震目录(公元1970-1979年)[M].北京:地震出版社,1984.Gu G X,Lin T H,Shi Z L,et al.The Earthquake Catalog inChina(A.D.1970-A.D.1979)(in Chinese)[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,1984.
[18]俞维贤,侯学英,周瑞琦,等.澜沧-耿马地震的地表破裂特征[J].地震研究,1991,14(3):203-214.Yu W X,Hou X Y,Zhou R Q,et al.Characteristic surfaceruptures of Lancang-Gengma earthquake[J].Journal ofSeismological Research(in Chinese),1991,14(3):203-214.
[19]郝敏,谢礼立.921台湾集集地震的烈度等震线[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报,2007,39(2):169-172.Hao M,Xie L L.The isoseismal of seismic intensity for the9.21 Taiwan Chi-Chi earthquake of 1999[J].Journal ofHarbin Institute of Technology(in Chinese),2007,39(2):169-172.
[20]彭阜南,叶银灿.台湾9.21集集地震考察兼论强震发震断层[J].地震地质,2004,26(4):576-585.Peng F N,Ye Y C.Seismogenic fault of the 1999Chi-Chiearthquake in Taiwan province and the features of earthquakedamages[J].Seismology and Geology(in Chinese),2004,26(4):576-585.
[21]陈祥熊.集集地震的综合研究[J].福建地震,2000,16(3-4):74-82.Chen X X.Synthesis research on the Jiji earthquake[J].Fujian Seismology(in Chinese),2000,16(3-4):74-82.
[22]党光明,王赞军.青海昆仑山口西MS8.1级地震地表破裂带特征与主要震害———对青藏高原区域稳定性评价的制约[J].地质通报,2002,21(2):105-108.Dang G M,Wang Z J.Characteristics of the surface rupturezone and main seismic hazards caused by the MS 8.1earthquake west of the Kunlun pass,China-Constraints onthe regional stability of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau[J].Geological Bulletin of China(in Chinese),2002,21(2):105-108.
[23]徐锡伟,闻学泽,叶建青,等.汶川MS8.0地震地表破裂带及其发震构造[J].地震地质,2008,30(3):597-629.Xu X W,Wen X Z,Ye J Q,et al.The MS8.0 Wenchuanearthquake surface ruptures and its seismogenic structure[J].Seismology and Geology(in Chinese),2008,30(3):597-629.
[2]秦四清,徐锡伟,胡平,等.孕震断层的多锁固段脆性破裂机制与地震预测新方法的探索[J].地球物理学报,2010,53(4):1001-1014.Qin S Q,Xu X W,Hu P,et al.Brittle failure mechanism ofmultiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system andexploration on a new way for earthquake prediction[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2010,53(4):1001-1014.
[3]秦四清,薛雷,王媛媛,等.对孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论的进一步验证及有关科学问题的讨论[J].地球物理学进展,2010,25(3):749-758.Qin S Q,Xue L,Wang Y Y,et al.Further verifications onthe brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches along aseismogenic fault system and discussions on some scienceissues[J].Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese),2010,25(3):749-758.
[4]秦四清,薛雷,徐锡伟,等.川滇地区未来强震预测与汶川MW7.9级地震孕震过程分析[J].地球物理学报,2010,53(11):2639-2650.Qin S Q,Xue L,Xu X W,et al.A prediction of strongearthquakes in the Sichuan and Yunnan regions and analysis ofthe seismogenic process of the Wenchuan MW7.9earthquake[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2010,53(11):2639-2650.
[5]秦四清,薛雷.云南盈江MS5.8级地震和缅甸MS7.2级地震预测总结及震后趋势分析[J].地球物理学进展,2011,26(2):462-468.Qin S Q,Xue L.A summary of prediction for the YingjiangMS5.8 earthquake in Yunnan and the Burma MS7.2earthquake as well as the analysis on the earthquake situationafter the earthquake[J].Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese),2011,26(2):462-468.
[6]秦四清,薛雷,李国梁,等.云南昭通“9.7地震”的前瞻性预测验证[J].地球物理学进展,2012,27(5):1837-1840.Qin S Q,Xue L,Li G L,et al.The verification of prospectiveprediction for the Zhaotong earthquakes on 7September 2012[J].Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese),2012,27(5):1837-1840.
[7]秦四清,薛雷,李国梁,等.四川省芦山“4.20”7.0级地震的前瞻性预测验证及震后趋势分析[J].地球物理学报,(待发表).Qin S Q,Xue L,Li G L,et al.The verification of prospectiveprediction for the Lushan MS7.0earthquake on 20April 2013[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),(in press).
[8]秦四清,李国梁,薛雷.锁固体破裂标志性地震震级与峰值强度点地震震级的统计关系[J].地球物理学进展,2012,27(5):1841-1844.Qin S Q,Li G L,Xue L.A statistical relation between thesymbolic earthquake magnitude and the earthquake magnitudeat peak strength point during the failure process of lookedpatch[J].Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese),2012,27(5):1841-1844.
[9]秦四清,薛雷,黄鑫,等.青海、甘肃与宁夏地区未来大地震预测分析[J].地球物理学进展,2010,25(4):1168-1174.Qin S Q,Xue L,Huang X,et al.Prediction of strongearthquakes in the Qinghai,Gansu and Ningxia regions[J].Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese),2010,25(4):1168-1174.
[10]秦四清,熊巨华,薛雷,等.强震的孕育规律与孕震模式[J].地球科学与环境学报,2011,33(3):311-316.Qin S Q,Xiong J H,Xue L,et al.Seismogenic law andmode of strong earthquakes[J].Journal of Earth Sciences andEnvironment(in Chinese),2011,33(3):311-316.
[11]俞维贤,汪一鹏,宋方敏,等.1833年云南嵩明8级大地震地表破裂带的考查研究[J].地震研究,1996,19(4):385-390.Yu W X,Wang Y P,Song F M,et al.Survey study onsurface rupture zone to Yunnan’s Songming M=8earthquake in 1833[J].Journal of Seismological Research(inChinese),1996,19(4):385-390.
[12]张之立,刘新美.1970年1月5日云南通海地震的震源特征[J].地球物理学报,1982,25(5):440-447.Zhang Z L,Liu S M.The focal characteristics of the Tonghaiearthquake,Yunnan province,on January 5,1970[J].ActaGeophysica Sinica(Chinese J.Geophys.)(in Chinese),1982,25(5):440-447.
[13]秦四清,薛雷,黄鑫,等.山东、河北、河南、山西、辽宁海城与京津地区未来中强地震预测[J].地球物理学进展,2010,25(5):1539-1549.Qin S Q,Xue L,Huang X,et al.A forward prediction ofmoderate-sized or strong earthquakes in Shandong,Hebei,Henan,Shanxi,Haicheng in Liaoning province and Beijing-Tianjin regions[J].Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese),2010,25(5):1539-1549.
[14]朱成男,陈承照.1974年云南省昭通地震破裂机制[J].地球物理学报,1976,19(4):317-329.Zhu C N,Chen C Z.The rupture mechanism of the Zhaotongearthquake of 1974in Yunnan province[J].Acta GeophysicaSinica(Chinese J.Geophys.)(in Chinese),1976,19(4):317-329.
[15]http://data.earthquake.cn/data/zhenli/liuying/zhenli/html/zhenli007.htm.
[16]顾功叙,林庭煌,时振梁,等.中国地震目录(公元前1831年-公元1969年)[M].北京:科学出版社,1983.Gu G X,Lin T H,Shi Z L,et al.The Earthquake Catalog inChina(B.C.1831-A.D.1969)(in Chinese)[M].Beijing:Science Press,1983.
[17]顾功叙,林庭煌,时振,等.中国地震目录(公元1970-1979年)[M].北京:地震出版社,1984.Gu G X,Lin T H,Shi Z L,et al.The Earthquake Catalog inChina(A.D.1970-A.D.1979)(in Chinese)[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,1984.
[18]俞维贤,侯学英,周瑞琦,等.澜沧-耿马地震的地表破裂特征[J].地震研究,1991,14(3):203-214.Yu W X,Hou X Y,Zhou R Q,et al.Characteristic surfaceruptures of Lancang-Gengma earthquake[J].Journal ofSeismological Research(in Chinese),1991,14(3):203-214.
[19]郝敏,谢礼立.921台湾集集地震的烈度等震线[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报,2007,39(2):169-172.Hao M,Xie L L.The isoseismal of seismic intensity for the9.21 Taiwan Chi-Chi earthquake of 1999[J].Journal ofHarbin Institute of Technology(in Chinese),2007,39(2):169-172.
[20]彭阜南,叶银灿.台湾9.21集集地震考察兼论强震发震断层[J].地震地质,2004,26(4):576-585.Peng F N,Ye Y C.Seismogenic fault of the 1999Chi-Chiearthquake in Taiwan province and the features of earthquakedamages[J].Seismology and Geology(in Chinese),2004,26(4):576-585.
[21]陈祥熊.集集地震的综合研究[J].福建地震,2000,16(3-4):74-82.Chen X X.Synthesis research on the Jiji earthquake[J].Fujian Seismology(in Chinese),2000,16(3-4):74-82.
[22]党光明,王赞军.青海昆仑山口西MS8.1级地震地表破裂带特征与主要震害———对青藏高原区域稳定性评价的制约[J].地质通报,2002,21(2):105-108.Dang G M,Wang Z J.Characteristics of the surface rupturezone and main seismic hazards caused by the MS 8.1earthquake west of the Kunlun pass,China-Constraints onthe regional stability of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau[J].Geological Bulletin of China(in Chinese),2002,21(2):105-108.
[23]徐锡伟,闻学泽,叶建青,等.汶川MS8.0地震地表破裂带及其发震构造[J].地震地质,2008,30(3):597-629.Xu X W,Wen X Z,Ye J Q,et al.The MS8.0 Wenchuanearthquake surface ruptures and its seismogenic structure[J].Seismology and Geology(in Chinese),2008,30(3):597-629.
版权所有：© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心