地震活动中期预测指标研究及其空间图像演化
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摘要
在研究应用模糊数学和非线性科学某些方法的基础上，通过实际预报检验，对一些中期预报较好的方法，如平静异常μq值、自相似从属函数μS值、自助统计方σBM值进行深入研究，提取中期预报定量化指标，探索孕震后期地震活动图像演化特征。结果表明：μq、μS、μBM值能够较好地反映地震前中期—短期异常变化特征，可以作为中期预报定量化指标；空间时序图像系列的显示，能定性反映震前异常区域及地震活动图像演化特征。
In this paper, based on study and application of some fuzzy mathematical methods and nonlinear science methods, and through practical test for earthquake prediction, some good medium-term methods are deeply studied, and some good quantitative indexes have been picked up, such as seismic quietness anomaly μq, self-similarity subordinate function μs, bootstrap statistical deviation σMB and others. Furthermore, the evolutionary features of seismicity pattern in late period of earthquake preparation are explored. The results show that, as quantitative indexes for mid-term prediction, μq, μs and σBM can have obvious mid-term and short term changes before large earthquakes; the time series of spatial pattern can represent the general anomalous areas before earthquakes and the evolutionary features of the seismicity pattern.
In this paper, based on study and application of some fuzzy mathematical methods and nonlinear science methods, and through practical test for earthquake prediction, some good medium-term methods are deeply studied, and some good quantitative indexes have been picked up, such as seismic quietness anomaly μq, self-similarity subordinate function μs, bootstrap statistical deviation σMB and others. Furthermore, the evolutionary features of seismicity pattern in late period of earthquake preparation are explored. The results show that, as quantitative indexes for mid-term prediction, μq, μs and σBM can have obvious mid-term and short term changes before large earthquakes; the time series of spatial pattern can represent the general anomalous areas before earthquakes and the evolutionary features of the seismicity pattern.
引文
1蒋淳,冯德益.大震前地震活动平静异常的模糊识别与分析.中国地震,1989,5(3):8～25
2蒋淳,冯德益,田山,等. 地震序列的自相似性分析及其在地震预报中的应用.地震学报,1993,15(4):455～462
3蒋淳,陈化然,冯德益.地震活动性的自助统计分析及其在地震预报中的应用.中国地震,1996,12(4):428～431
4陆远忠,吕悦军,郑月军.短期预报中地震活动图像演化方法.见:国家地震局预测预防司编.地震短临预报的理论与方法.北京:地震出版社,1997.13～21
5高旭,郭大庆,李海华. 我国中期地震预报的指标体系研究.地震,1995(增刊):66～78
6孙加林,陆远忠,曹井泉,等.地震活动性图像演化及有序性在短临预报中应用研究的新进展.地震,1995(增刊):110～117
2蒋淳,冯德益,田山,等. 地震序列的自相似性分析及其在地震预报中的应用.地震学报,1993,15(4):455～462
3蒋淳,陈化然,冯德益.地震活动性的自助统计分析及其在地震预报中的应用.中国地震,1996,12(4):428～431
4陆远忠,吕悦军,郑月军.短期预报中地震活动图像演化方法.见:国家地震局预测预防司编.地震短临预报的理论与方法.北京:地震出版社,1997.13～21
5高旭,郭大庆,李海华. 我国中期地震预报的指标体系研究.地震,1995(增刊):66～78
6孙加林,陆远忠,曹井泉,等.地震活动性图像演化及有序性在短临预报中应用研究的新进展.地震,1995(增刊):110～117
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