地形变监测地震能力的评价
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摘要
利用中国地震局第二监测中心1992-2007年的年度地震趋势研究报告为统计样本,对青藏块体东北缘地区的年度地震预报进行了检验,从一个侧面评价了当前地形变监测地震能力。结果显示在16年中无中强地震漏报,其中报对地震4个,报错地震19个,对错比例为21%。这表明地形变对中强以上地震有较强的监测能力,但由于二者之间尚无确定的对应关系,导致了错报率较高的现象。
Taking the annual seismicity trend reports from 1992 to 2007 given by Second Monitoring and Application Center,CEA,as statistical sample,the seismic monitoring and annual earthquake prediction for northeast margin of Qinghai-Tibet block using crustal deformation data are tested.The capacity of earthquake prediction using crustal deformation anomalies is evaluated.The results show that there was no pretermission of prediction for moderate-strong earthquake in 16 years,4 events were predicted correctly and 19 times failed,the accuracy ratio of prediction is about 21%.It is indicated that crustal deformation monitoring has good predictive capacity to moderate-strong earthquake.But caused by the uncertainty of corresponding relationship between crustal deformation and earthquake event,the percentage of failure is much higher than one of accuracy.
Taking the annual seismicity trend reports from 1992 to 2007 given by Second Monitoring and Application Center,CEA,as statistical sample,the seismic monitoring and annual earthquake prediction for northeast margin of Qinghai-Tibet block using crustal deformation data are tested.The capacity of earthquake prediction using crustal deformation anomalies is evaluated.The results show that there was no pretermission of prediction for moderate-strong earthquake in 16 years,4 events were predicted correctly and 19 times failed,the accuracy ratio of prediction is about 21%.It is indicated that crustal deformation monitoring has good predictive capacity to moderate-strong earthquake.But caused by the uncertainty of corresponding relationship between crustal deformation and earthquake event,the percentage of failure is much higher than one of accuracy.
引文
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[12]张四新,王双绪,张希,等.民乐-山丹6.1级地震前后的地壳垂直形变[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2006,26(1):
[2]张四新,张希,王双绪.汶川8.0级地震前后地壳垂直形变分析[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2008,28(6):43-46.
[3]梅世蓉.地震前兆场物理模式与前兆时空分布机制研究(三)———强震孕育时地震活动与地壳形变异常及机制[J].地震学报,1996,18(2):170-178.
[4]张培震,许锡伟,闻学泽,等.2008年汶川8.0级地震发震断裂的滑动速率、复发周期和构造成因[J].地球物理学报,2008,51(4):1066-1073.
[5]袁道阳,何文贵,刘小凤,等.10余年来甘肃省中强地震发震构造特征[J].西北地震学报,2006,28(3):235-241.
[6]郑文俊,刘小风,赵广,等.2003年11月13日甘肃岷县MS5.2地震基本特征[J].西北地震学报,2005,27(1):61-65.
[7]高曙德,杜学彬,苏永刚,等.甘川交界地区近年地震活动与武都地震台前兆资料变化特征[J].西北地震学报,2009,167-173.
[8]祝意青,梁伟锋,许云马.流动重力资料对汶川MS8.0地震的中期预测[J].国际地震动态,2008,28(11):118.
[9]巩守文.门源、江口地震的断层形变前兆分析[J].地震,1992,22(1):34-40.
[10]江在森,祝意青,王庆良,等.永登5.8级地震孕育发生过程中的断层形变与重力场动态图像特征[J].地震学报,1998,20(3):264-271.
[11]王双绪,江在森,陈文胜,等.景泰5.9级地震的断层形变异常及中短期预报[J].地震学报,2001,23(2):151-158.
[12]张四新,王双绪,张希,等.民乐-山丹6.1级地震前后的地壳垂直形变[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2006,26(1):
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