t检验方法在评价水库地震中的应用
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摘要
引入t检验方法对中国1975年以后的30例水库地震震例进行了定量评价。评价中首先分别统计水库蓄水前、后水库区水域线20 km范围内的地震年频度作为统计检验的2个样本,然后通过F检验和t检验方法对2个样本的标准差和均值是否存在显著差异进行检验,根据标准差和均值检验结果判定水库蓄水是否诱发了地震活动。结果显示:①如果水库蓄水前后库区地震年频度标准差和平均值均发生了显著变化,则水库蓄水诱发了地震。②如果水库蓄水前后库区地震年频度标准差无明显变化,但地震年频度平均值变化显著,则水库蓄水可能诱发了地震。③如果水库蓄水前后库区地震年频度标准差和平均值均无明显变化,则水库蓄水没有诱发地震。
With the use of introduced t-test method,this paper evaluated 30 cases of reservoir quantitatively after 1975.First,the evaluation result make a statistic about earthquake yearly average occurrence ratio around 20km,before the impoundment of earthquakes as a sample,after impoundment as another sample.Then,with the use of the F test and t test to the 2 samples repectively,we known whether the standard deviation and average deviation of this two samples were the same and decide whether or not the impounding reservoir leaded to occurcence of earthquake.There are three possibilities: ① If the significant difference of earthquake frequency standard deviation and averages existed before the impoundment and after it,the impoundment induced earthquake.② If earthquake frequency standard deviation does not change,the average changes,the impoundment may induced earthquake.③If all of them do not change,the earthquake is not induced by the impoundment
With the use of introduced t-test method,this paper evaluated 30 cases of reservoir quantitatively after 1975.First,the evaluation result make a statistic about earthquake yearly average occurrence ratio around 20km,before the impoundment of earthquakes as a sample,after impoundment as another sample.Then,with the use of the F test and t test to the 2 samples repectively,we known whether the standard deviation and average deviation of this two samples were the same and decide whether or not the impounding reservoir leaded to occurcence of earthquake.There are three possibilities: ① If the significant difference of earthquake frequency standard deviation and averages existed before the impoundment and after it,the impoundment induced earthquake.② If earthquake frequency standard deviation does not change,the average changes,the impoundment may induced earthquake.③If all of them do not change,the earthquake is not induced by the impoundment
引文
[1]杜运连,王洪涛,袁丽文.我国水库诱发地震研究[J].地震,2008,28(4):39-51.
[2]周昕,傅建武,杨福平,等.水库地震,诱发还是触发?[J].华南地震,2005,25(2):13-21.
[3]陈光祥.水库诱发地震机制和实例[J].云南地质,2004,23(2):266-269.
[4]张林洪,周建芬,阮莉.水库地震研究概述[J].云南水电技术,2001(1):70-72.
[5]杨晓源.水库诱发地震和我国近年水库地震监测综述(一)[J].四川水力发电,2000,19(2):82-85.
[6]欧作畿.水库诱发地震的研究[J].云南水力发电,21(3):18-29.
[7]夏其发.《世界水库诱发地震震例基本参数汇总表》暨水库诱发地震评述(一)[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,1992,3(4):95-100.
[8]焦远碧,吴开统,杨满栋.我国地震台网监测能力及台网观测条件质量评定[J].中国地震,1990,6(4):1-7.
[9]钟羽云,周昕,张帆,等.2006年温州珊溪水库地震序列特征[J].华南地震,2007,27(1):22-30.
[10]钟羽云,张帆,赵冬.珊溪水库4.6震群精确定位与发震构造研究[J].地震研究,2011,34(2):158-165.
[11]卢显,张晓东,周龙泉,等.紫坪铺水库库区地震精定位研究及分析[J].地震,2010,30(2):10-19.
[12]陈翰林,赵翠萍,修济刚,等.龙滩水库地震精定位及活动特征研究[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(8):2O35-2043.
[13]姚宏.广西区域测震台网监测能力评定[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2010,31(1):107-113.
[14]陈祥熊,吴长江,黄向荣,等.闽台两岸区域地震监测台网及地震监测能力比较[J].地震地磁观测与研究,1997,18(3):13-20.
[15]吴开统,焦远碧.论中国地震台网的监测效能[J].地震研究,1981,4(1):19-25.
[16]胡先明,张炜.冕宁大桥水库诱发地震的监测[J].四川地震,2005,1:12-17.
[17]赵珠,龙思胜,罗昭明.四川二滩水库库区蓄水前地震序列揭示的水库诱震结构[J].华南地震,1999,19(1):78-84.
[18]郭铭奎.四川省铜街子电站水库诱发地震[J].四川地震,1994,2:12-23.
[19]胡松.天生桥一级水电站水库蓄水初期的水库地震[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2003,24(6):125-130.
[20]覃子建,吴淑才.乌江渡水电站水库地震分析[J].贵州地质,1993,10(4):335-344.
[21]毛玉平,艾永平,付虹,等.云南水电站建设和大型水库诱发地震的监测与研究[EB/OL].[2009-02-11].http://www.wcb.yn.gov.cn/slsd/ztyj/2727.html
[22]文成玉,李珍,刘强中,等.小浪底水库遥测地震台网的初期运用[J].水力发电,2004,3O(9):60-61.
[23]杨又陵,杨欣.新疆克孜尔震群活动与水库蓄水关系研究[J].内陆地震,1996,10(2):147-153.
[24]张子凤,陈倩,王迎春,等.某水库在蓄水后的地震活动特征分析[J].高原地震,2008,20(3):23-27.
[25]隋欣,杨志峰.李家峡水库蓄水后区域地震活动特征及危险性分析[J].安全与环境学报,2004,4(6):50-53.
[2]周昕,傅建武,杨福平,等.水库地震,诱发还是触发?[J].华南地震,2005,25(2):13-21.
[3]陈光祥.水库诱发地震机制和实例[J].云南地质,2004,23(2):266-269.
[4]张林洪,周建芬,阮莉.水库地震研究概述[J].云南水电技术,2001(1):70-72.
[5]杨晓源.水库诱发地震和我国近年水库地震监测综述(一)[J].四川水力发电,2000,19(2):82-85.
[6]欧作畿.水库诱发地震的研究[J].云南水力发电,21(3):18-29.
[7]夏其发.《世界水库诱发地震震例基本参数汇总表》暨水库诱发地震评述(一)[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,1992,3(4):95-100.
[8]焦远碧,吴开统,杨满栋.我国地震台网监测能力及台网观测条件质量评定[J].中国地震,1990,6(4):1-7.
[9]钟羽云,周昕,张帆,等.2006年温州珊溪水库地震序列特征[J].华南地震,2007,27(1):22-30.
[10]钟羽云,张帆,赵冬.珊溪水库4.6震群精确定位与发震构造研究[J].地震研究,2011,34(2):158-165.
[11]卢显,张晓东,周龙泉,等.紫坪铺水库库区地震精定位研究及分析[J].地震,2010,30(2):10-19.
[12]陈翰林,赵翠萍,修济刚,等.龙滩水库地震精定位及活动特征研究[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(8):2O35-2043.
[13]姚宏.广西区域测震台网监测能力评定[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2010,31(1):107-113.
[14]陈祥熊,吴长江,黄向荣,等.闽台两岸区域地震监测台网及地震监测能力比较[J].地震地磁观测与研究,1997,18(3):13-20.
[15]吴开统,焦远碧.论中国地震台网的监测效能[J].地震研究,1981,4(1):19-25.
[16]胡先明,张炜.冕宁大桥水库诱发地震的监测[J].四川地震,2005,1:12-17.
[17]赵珠,龙思胜,罗昭明.四川二滩水库库区蓄水前地震序列揭示的水库诱震结构[J].华南地震,1999,19(1):78-84.
[18]郭铭奎.四川省铜街子电站水库诱发地震[J].四川地震,1994,2:12-23.
[19]胡松.天生桥一级水电站水库蓄水初期的水库地震[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2003,24(6):125-130.
[20]覃子建,吴淑才.乌江渡水电站水库地震分析[J].贵州地质,1993,10(4):335-344.
[21]毛玉平,艾永平,付虹,等.云南水电站建设和大型水库诱发地震的监测与研究[EB/OL].[2009-02-11].http://www.wcb.yn.gov.cn/slsd/ztyj/2727.html
[22]文成玉,李珍,刘强中,等.小浪底水库遥测地震台网的初期运用[J].水力发电,2004,3O(9):60-61.
[23]杨又陵,杨欣.新疆克孜尔震群活动与水库蓄水关系研究[J].内陆地震,1996,10(2):147-153.
[24]张子凤,陈倩,王迎春,等.某水库在蓄水后的地震活动特征分析[J].高原地震,2008,20(3):23-27.
[25]隋欣,杨志峰.李家峡水库蓄水后区域地震活动特征及危险性分析[J].安全与环境学报,2004,4(6):50-53.
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