滇西地区综合环境因子预报地震的研究
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摘要
本文在原有单项预报指标的基础上，研究滇西地区（Ｎ２３°４８′～２６°２０′；Ｅ９７°００′～９９°３０′）Ｍ≥５０级的地震。利用环境因子与地震的相关性，引用“权重集成数学模式”，从而给出定性、定量的综合判据。并根据滇西地区地震活动特征及其时空动态演变规律，对地震发生地点做出进一步判定，得出了一套滇西地区综合预报模式方案。结果表明，１９６０年以来该区发生的１４次中强地震其历史准确率１２／１２＝１００，历史概括率１２／１４＝０８６，其预报效能具有较强的实用价值。
Based on former signal prediction index,the earthquakes with M≥5 0 occurred in West Yunnan(N 23°48′-26°20′,E97°00′-99°30′) are studied and comprehensive criteria in quality and quantity are given using correlativety between envirnmental factors and earthquake and citing“mathematical model of weighting intergration",and earthquake locations are determined and a set of comprehensive prediction scheme for West Yunnan is obtained on the basis of seismicity features and its evolution regularity in time-space in west Yunnan.The results show that historical accuracy and historical generality for the 14 medium and strong earthquakes since 1960 are 12/12=1.00 and 12/14=0.88 respectively and the prediction effect has obvious practical value.
Based on former signal prediction index,the earthquakes with M≥5 0 occurred in West Yunnan(N 23°48′-26°20′,E97°00′-99°30′) are studied and comprehensive criteria in quality and quantity are given using correlativety between envirnmental factors and earthquake and citing“mathematical model of weighting intergration",and earthquake locations are determined and a set of comprehensive prediction scheme for West Yunnan is obtained on the basis of seismicity features and its evolution regularity in time-space in west Yunnan.The results show that historical accuracy and historical generality for the 14 medium and strong earthquakes since 1960 are 12/12=1.00 and 12/14=0.88 respectively and the prediction effect has obvious practical value.
引文
〔1〕赵洪声，地震预报的内、外因时空迭加模式，地震研究，1987，10（1），1～11〔2〕耿国庆，中国旱震关系研究，海洋出版社，1985〔3〕许绍燮，地震活动性预报地震方法，地震学报，1993，15（2），239～252
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