地震活动中短期预测指标研究及其应用
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摘要
在研究应用模糊地震学和统计地震学某些方法的基础上，通过实际预报检验，对一些中短期预报较好的方法，如地震活动平静异常μｑ 值，自相似从属函数μｓ 值，自助统计方差σＢ 值进行深入研究，探索孕震后期地震活动图像演化特征。结果表明：μｑ、μｓ、σＢ 值能够较好地反映地震前中短期异常变化特征，可以作为中短期预报定量化指标；空间时序图像系列的显示，能定性反映震前异常区域及地震活动图像演化特征。
The complicity of seismicities is that not only they cannot go back and their precursors are not simply reappearing,but also the random features of their temporal and spatial evolution processes.Therefore,as the physical process of earthquakes is not very clear to us,the application of the statistical methods of having physical basis,fuzzy mathematical methods and non-linear theory may give some effective ways for earthquake prediction.Seismic quietness anomaly μq-value,self-similarity subordinate function of seismic series μs-value and bootstrap statistical deviation of seismic dispersion σ B -value show sound effects for mid-term and short-term earthquake prediction.
The complicity of seismicities is that not only they cannot go back and their precursors are not simply reappearing,but also the random features of their temporal and spatial evolution processes.Therefore,as the physical process of earthquakes is not very clear to us,the application of the statistical methods of having physical basis,fuzzy mathematical methods and non-linear theory may give some effective ways for earthquake prediction.Seismic quietness anomaly μq-value,self-similarity subordinate function of seismic series μs-value and bootstrap statistical deviation of seismic dispersion σ B -value show sound effects for mid-term and short-term earthquake prediction.
引文
1 蒋淳,冯德益.大震前地震活动平静异常的模糊识别与分析.中国地震,1989,5(3):8—25
2 蒋淳,冯德益,田山,等.地震序列的自相似性分析及其在地震预报中的应用.地震学报,1993,15(4):455—462
3 蒋淳,陈化然,冯德益.地震活动性的自助统计分析及其在地震预报中的应用.中国地震,1996,12(4):428—431
2 蒋淳,冯德益,田山,等.地震序列的自相似性分析及其在地震预报中的应用.地震学报,1993,15(4):455—462
3 蒋淳,陈化然,冯德益.地震活动性的自助统计分析及其在地震预报中的应用.中国地震,1996,12(4):428—431
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