2010年2月27日智利M_W8.8地震前全球地震活动特征分析
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摘要
通过对智利地震前全球不同时空范围地震活动特征分析,发现:①智利地震前出现了两类地震空区:第一类空区为1900年以来形成的360km长的MW≥8.0地震空段,第二类空区为震前5年形成的780km长的M≥5.5地震空段;②1986—2010年,智利中南部仅发生1次MW7.1地震,表现为显著的MW≥7.0地震平静异常;③2007—2009年,南美板块M≥6.5地震显著平静,平静打破后3个月发生了智利MW8.8地震;④1993年以来,南美板块中、深源地震活动显著增强;⑤智利地震的发生是2004年开始的全球MW≥8.5地震活跃时段的继续发展,根据前2个活跃时段的特点,认为今后数年全球还将发生数次MW≥8.5地震,且环太平洋地震带是MW≥8.0地震的主体活动地区.
Spatio-temporal variation of seismic activity before the great Chile earthquake on February 27,2010,is studied.Some results are as follows:① Two types of seismic gaps appeared before the Chile MW8.8 shock.One is the background gap of MW≥8.0 earthquakes with 360 km long since 1900.The other is the seismogenic gap of M≥5.5 earthquakes with 780 km long 5 years before the Chile earthquake.② There was only one earthquake with MW7.1 in middle and southern part of Chile from 1986 to 2010.This is the long-term background anomaly of the obvious quiescence of MW≥7.0 earthquakes before the Chile earthquake.③ The quiescence of earthquakes with M≥6.5 appeared in South American Plate and its vicinity during 2007—2009,and the quietude state has been disappeared three months before the MW8.8 shock.④ The deep and intermediate-depth earthquake activity has been noticeably strengthened in the subduction zone of South American Plate since 1993.⑤ The great Chile earthquake shows that the global seismicity is still in the active period of MW≥8.5 earthquakes since 2004.Based on the characteristics of the former two active periods,several MW≥8.5 great earthquakes would take place in a few years.In addition,the circum-Pacific seismic belt would be the main region for MW≥8.0 earthquakes.
Spatio-temporal variation of seismic activity before the great Chile earthquake on February 27,2010,is studied.Some results are as follows:① Two types of seismic gaps appeared before the Chile MW8.8 shock.One is the background gap of MW≥8.0 earthquakes with 360 km long since 1900.The other is the seismogenic gap of M≥5.5 earthquakes with 780 km long 5 years before the Chile earthquake.② There was only one earthquake with MW7.1 in middle and southern part of Chile from 1986 to 2010.This is the long-term background anomaly of the obvious quiescence of MW≥7.0 earthquakes before the Chile earthquake.③ The quiescence of earthquakes with M≥6.5 appeared in South American Plate and its vicinity during 2007—2009,and the quietude state has been disappeared three months before the MW8.8 shock.④ The deep and intermediate-depth earthquake activity has been noticeably strengthened in the subduction zone of South American Plate since 1993.⑤ The great Chile earthquake shows that the global seismicity is still in the active period of MW≥8.5 earthquakes since 2004.Based on the characteristics of the former two active periods,several MW≥8.5 great earthquakes would take place in a few years.In addition,the circum-Pacific seismic belt would be the main region for MW≥8.0 earthquakes.
引文
[1]中国新闻网.2010.http:∥news.qq.com/a/20100304/001063.ht m.
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Fedotov S A.1965.Regularities of the distribution of strong earthuqaksin Kanchatka,the Kuri Island and northeast Ja-pan[J].Tr Inst Fiz Zemli,Acad Nauk SSSR,36:66--93.
Kelleher J.1972.Rupture zones of large South American earthquakes and some predictions[J].J Geophys Res,77(11):2089--2103.
Melnick D,Moreno M,Lange D,Strecher MR,Echtler HP.2008.Tectonic control on the1960Chile earthquake rup-ture set ment[C].7thInternational Symposiumon Andean Geodynamics(ISAG2008,Nice),Extended Abstracts:326--329.
Mogi K.1973.Relationship between shallowand deep seismicityinthe western Pacific region[J].Tectonophysics,17(1-2):1--22.
Mogi K.1979.Two kinds of seismic gaps[J].Pure Appl Geophys,117(6):1172--1186.
Mogi K.1987.Recent seismic activityin the Tokai(Japan)region where a large earthquake is expected in the near future[J].Tectonophysics,138(2-4):255--268.
Mogi K.1988.Downward migration of seismic activity prior to some great shallow earthquakes in Japanese subductionzone:Apossible intermediate-termprecursor[J].Pure Appl Geophys,126(2-4):447--463
Mogi K.1990.Seismicity before and after large shallow earthquakes around the Japanese islands[J].Tectonophysics,175(1-3):1--33.
薛艳,宋治平,梅世蓉.2005a.印尼苏门答腊9.0级地震前地震活动图像异常特征研究[J].中国地震,21(3):311--319.
薛艳,刘杰,宋治平.2005b.印尼苏门答腊两次巨大地震序列特征对比分析[J].国际地震动态,(10):1--8.
薛艳,宋治平,梅世蓉,马宏生.2008.印尼苏门答腊几次巨大地震前的地震活动异常特征[J].地震学报,30(3):321--325.
Beck S,Barrientos S,Kausel E,Reyes M.1998.Source characteristics of historic earthquakes along the central Chile subduction zone[J].Journal of South American Earth Sciences,11(2):115--129.
Engdahl E R,Villaseor A.2002.Global seismicity:1900—1999[M]∥Lee W H K,Kanamori H,Jennings P C,Kisslinger Ceds.International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology.San Diego:Academic Press,Part A:665--690.
Fedotov S A.1965.Regularities of the distribution of strong earthuqaksin Kanchatka,the Kuri Island and northeast Ja-pan[J].Tr Inst Fiz Zemli,Acad Nauk SSSR,36:66--93.
Kelleher J.1972.Rupture zones of large South American earthquakes and some predictions[J].J Geophys Res,77(11):2089--2103.
Melnick D,Moreno M,Lange D,Strecher MR,Echtler HP.2008.Tectonic control on the1960Chile earthquake rup-ture set ment[C].7thInternational Symposiumon Andean Geodynamics(ISAG2008,Nice),Extended Abstracts:326--329.
Mogi K.1973.Relationship between shallowand deep seismicityinthe western Pacific region[J].Tectonophysics,17(1-2):1--22.
Mogi K.1979.Two kinds of seismic gaps[J].Pure Appl Geophys,117(6):1172--1186.
Mogi K.1987.Recent seismic activityin the Tokai(Japan)region where a large earthquake is expected in the near future[J].Tectonophysics,138(2-4):255--268.
Mogi K.1988.Downward migration of seismic activity prior to some great shallow earthquakes in Japanese subductionzone:Apossible intermediate-termprecursor[J].Pure Appl Geophys,126(2-4):447--463
Mogi K.1990.Seismicity before and after large shallow earthquakes around the Japanese islands[J].Tectonophysics,175(1-3):1--33.
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