地震预警中两种利用卓越周期估算震级方法的比较
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摘要
利用地震P波初始信息快速估算震级是地震预警系统中的重要部分之一,文中详细介绍了地震预警研究中常用的两种卓越周期估算震级方法:τpmax方法和τc方法。为了评估这两种方法哪一种震级估算精度更高,文中通过设置不同的估算震级时间窗以及不同的滤波频带,利用震级范围4.1～7.9的22次地震的强震观测记录对这两种方法进行了比较分析。比较的结果表明:本文计算得到的τpmax值和τc值与震级之间均存在线性比例关系,与前人的研究结果一致;在相同的0.075～3 Hz带通滤波条件下,利用P波触发后3 s地震记录计算的τc值可获得最优的震级估计结果,τc与震级的相关系数为0.78,标准差为0.16。仅经过0.075 Hz高通滤波得到的τpmax值与震级的线性相关度比0.075～3Hz带通滤波得到的τpmax值与震级的线性相关度低,而是否经过低通滤波对τc值与震级的线性比例关系没有影响。建议在地震预警系统中优先采用3 sτc方法作为震级估算方法。
One of the critical technologies of earthquake early warning is determining the size of an earthquake from the first a few seconds after the P-wave arrival.Currently,there are two magnitude estimating approaches using predominant period for earthquake early warning,τpmax method and τc method.In order to explore which method is with higher precision,we compare τpmax method with τc method from 22 earthquakes in United States with magnitude ranging from 4.1 to 7.9,through setting different time windows for calculating τpmax and τc values and band of filtering for earthquake records.Our results show that scaling relations between the two predominant period parameters,τpmax and τc,calculated from P-wave arrivals and earthquake magnitude are consistent with the previous researches.It is found that τc method has higher precision than τpmax and τc method with the same filtering band,and has best result in magnitude estimation resulting in a correlation coefficient of 0.78 and a standard deviation of 0.16 using 3 seconds signal after the P-wave arrival.We also found that τpmax method with low-pass filtering had higher accuracy than τpmax method without low-pass filtering.There is no distinct effect on magnitude estimation using τc with whether low-pass filtering or not.We recommend τc method using 3 seconds signal after the P-wave arrival as the preferential magnitude estimating method for earthquake early warning.
One of the critical technologies of earthquake early warning is determining the size of an earthquake from the first a few seconds after the P-wave arrival.Currently,there are two magnitude estimating approaches using predominant period for earthquake early warning,τpmax method and τc method.In order to explore which method is with higher precision,we compare τpmax method with τc method from 22 earthquakes in United States with magnitude ranging from 4.1 to 7.9,through setting different time windows for calculating τpmax and τc values and band of filtering for earthquake records.Our results show that scaling relations between the two predominant period parameters,τpmax and τc,calculated from P-wave arrivals and earthquake magnitude are consistent with the previous researches.It is found that τc method has higher precision than τpmax and τc method with the same filtering band,and has best result in magnitude estimation resulting in a correlation coefficient of 0.78 and a standard deviation of 0.16 using 3 seconds signal after the P-wave arrival.We also found that τpmax method with low-pass filtering had higher accuracy than τpmax method without low-pass filtering.There is no distinct effect on magnitude estimation using τc with whether low-pass filtering or not.We recommend τc method using 3 seconds signal after the P-wave arrival as the preferential magnitude estimating method for earthquake early warning.
引文
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[31]Xu Y,Wu Z L,Jiang C S,et al.Estimating the size of an earthquake using short-period seismograms of the first three seconds:a simulated ex-periment using the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake sequence[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,2008,21(2):139-147.
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[33]WANG W T,Ni S D,Chen Y,et al.Magnitude estimation for early warning applications using the initial part of P waves:A case study on the2008 Wenchuan sequence[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2009,36:L16305.
[34]Sokolov V,Wenzel F,Furumura T.On estimation of earthquake magnitude in earthquake early warning systems[J].Earth Planets Space,2009,61:1275-1285.
[35]Park Y,Park S C,Kim K H,et al.Magnitude scaling relationships from the first 3 s of P-wave arrivals in South Korea[J].Jouarnal of Seis-mology,2010,14(4):761-768.
[36]Rydelek P,Horiuchi S.Is earthquake rupture deterministic[J].Nature,2006,442:E5-E6.
[37]Allen R V.Automatic earthquake recognition and timing from single traces[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1978,68:1521-1532.
[38]Akaike H.Information theory as an extension of the maximum likelihood principle[C].//Proceedings of 2nd International Symposium on Informa-tion Theory,1973:267-281.
[2]Suarez G,Novelo D,Mansilla E.Performance evaluation of the seismic alert system(SAS)in Mexico city:a seismological and a social perspec-tive[J].Seismological Research Letters,2009,80(5):707-716.
[3]Espinosa-Aranda J M,Cuellar A,Garcia A,et al.Evolution of the Mexico seismic alert system(SASMEX)[J].Seismological Research Letters,2009,80(5):694-706.
[4]Nakamura Y.On the urgent earthquake detection and alarm system(UrEDAS)[C]//Proceedings of 9th World Conference on Earthquake Engi-neering,1988,Vol.VII:673-678.
[5]Hoshiba M,Kamigaichi O,Saito M,et al.Earthquake early warning starts nationwide in Japan[J].EOS,Transactions,American GeophysicalUnion,2008,89(8):73-80.
[6]Kamigaichi O,Saito M,Doi K,et al.Earthquake early warning in Japan:warning the general public and future[J].Seismological Research Let-ters,2009,80(5):717-726.
[7]Allen R M,Kanamori H.The protential for earthquake early warning in southern California[J].Science,2003,300:786-789.
[8]Wurman G,Allen R M,Lombard P.Toward earthquake early warning in northern California[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2007,112:B08311.
[9]Cua G,Fischer M,Heaton T,et al.Real-time performance of the virtual seismologist earthquake early warning algorithm in southern California[J].Seismological Research Letters,2009,80(5):740-747.
[10]Wenzel F,Oncescu M C,Baur M,et al.An early warning system for Bucharest[J].Seismological Research Letters,1999,70(2):161-169
[11]Bse M,Ionescu C,Wenzel F.Earthquake early warning for Bucharest,Romania:novel and revised scaling relations[J].Seismological Re-search Letters,2007,34:L07302.
[12]Erdik M,Fahjan Y,Ozel O,et al.Istanbul earthquake rapid response and the early warning system[J].Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering,2003,1:157-163.
[13]Alcik H,Ozel O,Apaydin N,et al.A study on warning algorithms for Istanbul earthquake early warning system[J].Geophysical Research Let-ters,2009,36:L00B05.
[14]Fleming K,Picozzi M,Milkereit C,et al.The self-organizing seismic early warning information network(SOSEWIN)[J].Seismological Re-search Letters,2009,80(5):755-771.
[15]Weber E,Convertito V,Iannaccone G,et al.An advanced seismic network in the southern Apennines(Italy)for seismicity investigations andexperimentation with earthquake early warning[J].Seismological Research Letters,2007,78(6):622-634.
[16]Zollo A,Iannaccone G,Lancieri M,et al.Earthquake early warning system in southern Italy:methodologies and performance evaluation[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2009,36:L00B07.
[17]Peng H S,Wu Z L,Wu Y M,et al.Developing a prototype earthquake early warning system in the Beijing capital region[J].Seismological Re-search Letters,2011,82(3):394-403.
[18]马强.地震预警技术研究及应用[D].哈尔滨:中国地震局工程力学研究所,2008.MA Qiang.Study and application on earthquake early warning[D].Harbin:Institute of Engineering Mechanics,China Earthquake Administra-tion,2008.(in Chinese)
[19]Wu Y M,Shin T C,Chen C C,et al.Taiwan rapid earthquake information release system[J].Seismological Research Letters,1997,68(6):931-943.
[20]Wu Y M,Teng T L.A virtual sub-network approach to earthquake early warning[J].Bulletin of Seismological Society of America,2002,92(5):2008-2018.
[21]Hsiao N C,Wu Y M,Shin T C,et al.Development of earthquake early warning system in Taiwan[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2009,36:L00B02.
[22]Nakamura Y,Saita J.UrEDAS,the earthquake warning system:today and tomorrow[M].In Earthquake Early Warning Systems,ed.GaspariniP,Manfredi G,Zschau J,Berlin and Heidelberg:Springer,2007:249-282.
[23]Kanamori H.Real-time seismology and earthquake damage mitigation[J].Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences,2005,33:195-214.
[24]Olson E L,Allen R M.The deterministic nature of earthquake rupture[J].Nature,2005,438:212-215.
[25]Wu Y M,Kanamori H.Experiment on an onsite early warning method for the Taiwan early warning system[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Soci-ety of America,2005,95(1):347-353.
[26]Wu Y M,Kanamori H.Rapid assessment of damaging potential of earthquakes in Taiwan from the beginning of P waves[J].Bulletin of the Seis-mological Society of America,2005,95(3):1181-1185.
[27]Wu Y M,Kanamori H,Allen R M,et al.Determination of earthquake early warning parameters,τc and Pd,for southern California[J].Geo-physical Journal International,2007,170:711-717.
[28]Lockman A B,Allen R M.Magnitude period scaling relations for Japan and the Pacific northwest:implications for earthquake early warning[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,2007,97(1B):140-150.
[29]Lewis M A,Ben-Zion Y.Examination of scaling between proposed early signals in P waveforms and earthquake magnitude[J].Geophysical Jour-nal International,2007,170:1258-1268.
[30]Olivieri M,Schweitzer J.An empirical procedure for rapid magnitude estimation in Italy[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,2007,97(5):1750-1755.
[31]Xu Y,Wu Z L,Jiang C S,et al.Estimating the size of an earthquake using short-period seismograms of the first three seconds:a simulated ex-periment using the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake sequence[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,2008,21(2):139-147.
[32]Lewis M A,Ben-Zion Y.Examination of scaling between earthquake magnitude and proposed early signals in P waveforms from very near sourcestations in South African gold mines[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2008,113:B09305.
[33]WANG W T,Ni S D,Chen Y,et al.Magnitude estimation for early warning applications using the initial part of P waves:A case study on the2008 Wenchuan sequence[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2009,36:L16305.
[34]Sokolov V,Wenzel F,Furumura T.On estimation of earthquake magnitude in earthquake early warning systems[J].Earth Planets Space,2009,61:1275-1285.
[35]Park Y,Park S C,Kim K H,et al.Magnitude scaling relationships from the first 3 s of P-wave arrivals in South Korea[J].Jouarnal of Seis-mology,2010,14(4):761-768.
[36]Rydelek P,Horiuchi S.Is earthquake rupture deterministic[J].Nature,2006,442:E5-E6.
[37]Allen R V.Automatic earthquake recognition and timing from single traces[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1978,68:1521-1532.
[38]Akaike H.Information theory as an extension of the maximum likelihood principle[C].//Proceedings of 2nd International Symposium on Informa-tion Theory,1973:267-281.
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