以颗粒物理原理认识地震——地震成因、地震前兆和地震预测
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摘要
本文以地壳和地幔的基本构造和己有观测事实为依据,运用颗粒物理原理,将地壳和地幔作为大尺度离散态颗粒物质体系处理,重新认识地震孕育过程,前兆产生机制及规律,探求地震预测方法和途径.主要结果是:建立了地壳与地幔构成和运动的颗粒模型;提出了引发地震的大地构造力的形成机制,以及地震前兆信息产生和传播规律;说明了地震前兆信息的主要特征及其与地震发生之间的关联,阐述了探测有效地震前兆信息的方法原理;用颗粒流动的阻塞-解阻塞转变原理解释了深源地震发生机制;对以前难以理解的若干地震学现象进行了解释,并讨论了地震的可预测性。由于地壳和地幔的离散结构特征,对于地震孕育的准静力学过程,连续介质理论不再适用.以颗粒物理原理研究地震成因、地震前兆和地震预测,所获得的新认识与传统连续介质地震学观点有本质区别。
To recognize the seismogenic process,mechanism and behavior of seismic precursors,as well as look for the ways of earthquake prediction the granular physics principle is applied based on the basic structure of the crust and mantle and existing experimental observations,where we treat the earth crust and mantle as large scale discrete matters.Main outcomes are:A granular model of the structure and movement of the earth crust and mantle is established.A formation mechanism of the tectonic forces,which causes the earthquakes,and a model of propagation for precursive signals are proposed.Properties of the seismic precursive signal and its relevance with the earthquake occurrence are illustrated,and principle of ways to detect the effective seismic precursor is elaborated. In the paper the mechanism of palintectic earthquake is also explained by the jamming-unjamming transition of the granular flow. Some earthquake phenomena which were previously difficult to understand are explained,and the predictability of the earthquake is discussed.Due to the discrete nature of the earth crust and mantle,the continuum theory no longer applies during the quasi-static seismogenic process.In all in this paper,based on granular physics,we study the causes of earthquakes,earthquake precursors and earthquake prediction,and a new understanding,different from the traditional seismological point of view,is obtained.
To recognize the seismogenic process,mechanism and behavior of seismic precursors,as well as look for the ways of earthquake prediction the granular physics principle is applied based on the basic structure of the crust and mantle and existing experimental observations,where we treat the earth crust and mantle as large scale discrete matters.Main outcomes are:A granular model of the structure and movement of the earth crust and mantle is established.A formation mechanism of the tectonic forces,which causes the earthquakes,and a model of propagation for precursive signals are proposed.Properties of the seismic precursive signal and its relevance with the earthquake occurrence are illustrated,and principle of ways to detect the effective seismic precursor is elaborated. In the paper the mechanism of palintectic earthquake is also explained by the jamming-unjamming transition of the granular flow. Some earthquake phenomena which were previously difficult to understand are explained,and the predictability of the earthquake is discussed.Due to the discrete nature of the earth crust and mantle,the continuum theory no longer applies during the quasi-static seismogenic process.In all in this paper,based on granular physics,we study the causes of earthquakes,earthquake precursors and earthquake prediction,and a new understanding,different from the traditional seismological point of view,is obtained.
引文
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[4]Zhang G M,Fu Z X,Gui X T 2001 Introduction to Earthquake ??Prediction(Beijing:Science Press)(in Chinese)[张国民,傅征祥,桂燮泰2001地震预报引论(北京:科学出版社)]
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[11]Agnolin I,Roux J N 2007 Phys.Rev.E 76 061304
[12]Liu A J,Nagel S R 1998 Nature 396 21
[13]Trappe V,Prasad V,Cipelletti L,Segre P N,Weitz D A 2001 Nature 411772
[14]To K,Lai P Y,Pak H K 2001 Phys.Rev.Lett.86 71
[15]Hou M Y,Chen W,Zhang T,Lu K Q,Chan C K 2003 Phys.Rev. Lett.91 204301
[16]Zhu X H,Cai Y L 2006 Advance in Earth Sciences 21 496(in Chinese)[朱晓华,蔡运龙2006地球科学进展21 496]
[17]Yang S D Ed.2001 An Outline of Earth Sciences(2nd Ed.) (Hangzhou:Zhejiang University Press)(in Chinese)[杨树铎主编2001地球科学概论(第2版)(杭州:浙江大学出版社)]
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[19]Li Z W,Xu Y,Hao T Y,Liu J S,Zhang L 2006 Chin.J.Geophys. 49 707(in Chinese)[李志伟,胥颐,郝天珧,刘劲松,张岭2006地球物理学报49 707]
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[22]Li Y H,Wu Q J,Tian X B,Zhang R Q,Pan J T 2009 Chin.J. Geophys.52 67(in Chinese)[李永华,吴庆举,田小波,张瑞青,潘佳铁2009地球物理学报52 67]
[23]Dragert H,Wang K,James T S 2001 Science 292 1525
[24]Wang Q,Zhang P Z,Niu Z J,Freymueller J T,Lai X A,Li Y X, Zhu W Y,Liu J N,Bilhan R,Larson K M 2001 Sci.China D 31 529(in Chinese)[王琪,张培震,牛之俊,Freymueller J T.赖锡安,李延兴,朱文耀,刘经南,Bilhan R,Larson K M 2001中国科学(D辑)31 529
[25]Zhang P Z,Deng Q D,Zhang G M,Ma J,Gan W J,Min W,Mao F Y,Wang Q 2003 Sci.China D 33 12(in Chinese)[张培震,邓起东,张国民,马瑾,甘卫军,闵伟,毛凤英,王琪2003中国科学(D辑)3312]
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[27]Tang H T,Zhang X L,Zhang X,Jiang F Y 2011 Plateau Earthquake Research 23 37(in Chinese)唐红涛,张晓亮,张希,蒋锋云2011高原地震23 37]
[28]Zhang P Z,Xu X W,Wen X Z,Ran Y K 2008 Chin.J.Geophys. SI 1066(in Chinese)张培震,徐锡伟,闻学泽,冉勇康2008地球物理学报51 1066]
[29]Shen Z K,Sun J B,Zhang P Z,Wan Y G,Wang M,Burgmann R, Zeng Y H,Gan W J,Liao H,Wang Q L 2009 Nature Geosci.2 718
[30]Lu K Q,Hou M Y,Wang Q,Jiang Z H,Liu J X 2011 Acta Phys. Sin.60 119101(in Chinese)[陆坤权,厚美瑛,王强,姜泽辉,刘寄星2011物理学报60 119101]
[31]Wang L 2004 Earthquake Research in Sichuan 110 42(in Chinese)[王兰2004四川地震11042]
[32]Niu F L,Silver P G,Daley T M 2008 Nature 454 204
[33]Jiang J X,Yin G H,Wang Z H,Wang X G,Tang X Y 2004 Chin. J.Rock Mechan.Engin.23 4072(in Chinese)[蒋靖祥,尹光华,王在华,王新刚,唐小勇2004岩石力学与工程学报23 4072]
[34]Jiang J X,Yin G H 2005 J.Geodesy Geodynamics 25 91(in Chinese) [蒋靖祥,尹光华2005大地测量与地球动力学25 91]
[35]Peng H,Ma X M,Jiang J J 2008 J.Geomechanics 14 97 (in Chinese)[彭华,马秀敏,姜景捷2008地质力学学报14 97]
[36]Fan G Y,Shi L Q,Li L S 2002 J.Seismology 22 7(in Chinese)[范桂英,拾礼勤,李兰生2002地震学刊22 7]
[37]Qiu Z H,Zhang B H,Chi S L,Tang L,Song M 2010 Sci.China: Geosci.40 1031(in Chinese)[邱泽华,张宝红,池顺良,唐磊,宋茉2010中国科学:地球科学40 1031]
[38]The Monitoring and Prediction Department of China Seismological Bureau 2005 The Indonesian Earthquake and Its Impact on the Chinese Mainland Area(Beijing:Seismic Press)(in Chinese)[中国地震局监测预报司编2005 2004年印尼8.7级大地震及其对中国大陆地区的影响(北京:地震出版社)]
[39]Lu K Q,Hou M Y,Wang Q,Peng Z,Sun W,Sun X M,Wang Y Y, Tong X H,Jiang Z H,Liu J X 2011 Chin.Sci.Bull.56 1071[陆坤权,厚美瑛,王强,彭政,孙威,孙晓明,王玉莹,佟晓辉,姜泽辉,刘寄星2011科学通报56 1071]
[40]Li J,Jin X,Zhou Z R,Lin S,Yuan L W,Chen Y 2009 Acta Seismol. Sin.31 629(in Chinese)[李军,金星,周峥嵘,林树,袁丽文,陈莹2009地震学报31 629]
[41]Frohlish C 1989 Ann.Rev.Earth Planet.Sci.17 227
[42]Green H W,Houston H 1995 Annu.Rev.Earth Planet.Sci.23 169
[43]Li G B 2005 Plateau Earthquake Research 17 33(in Chinese)[李国斌2005高原地震17 33]
[44]Che Y T,Gu Y Z,Yu J Z,Liu W Z 2002 Earthquake 22 106(in Chinese)[车用太,谷元珠,鱼金子,刘五洲2002地震22 106]
[45]Zhang X M,Zhai Y Z,Guo J F,Guo X Z,Han H P 2006 Earthquake 26 82(in Chinese)[张学民,翟彦忠,郭建芳,郭学增,韩和平2006地震26 82]
[46]Xu S X 2006 Chin.Academy Engin.8 14(in Chinese)[许绍燮2006中国工程科学8 14]
[47]Zhang G M,Wang S Y,Li L,Zhang X D,Ma H S 2002 Chin.Sci. Bull.47 663(in Chinese)[张国民,汪素云,李丽,张晓东,马宏生2002科学通报47 663]
[48]Bak P(translated by Li W,Cai M) 2001 How Nature Works (Wuhan:Central China Normal University Press)[巴克帕著(李炜,蔡勖译)2001大自然如何工作(武汉:华中师范大学出版社)]
[49]Wu Z L,Jiang C S 2005 Earthquake Research in China 21 103(in Chinese)[吴忠良,蒋长胜2005中国地震21 103]
[50]Wu Z L,Jiang C S 2006 Earthquake Research in China 22 236(in Chinese)[吴忠良,蒋长胜2006中国地震22 236]
[51]Wang Y Z,Shen Z K 2007 Earthquake Research in China 23 1(in Chinese)[王阎昭,沈正康2007中国地震23 1]
[52]Zhang G M,Ma H S,Wang H,Li L 2004 Sci.China D 34 591(in Chinese)[张国民,马宏生,王辉,李丽2004中国科学(D辑) 34 591]
[2]Shearer P M(translated by Chen Z L) 1999 Introduction to Seismology (New York:Cambridge University Press)[席勒P M著(陈章立译)2008地震学引论(北京:地震出版社)]
[3]Chen Z L 2004 Introduction to the Base of Seismological Method for Earthquake Prediction(Beijing:Seismic Press)(in Chinese) [陈章立2004浅论地震预报地震学方法基础(北京:地震出版社)]
[4]Zhang G M,Fu Z X,Gui X T 2001 Introduction to Earthquake ??Prediction(Beijing:Science Press)(in Chinese)[张国民,傅征祥,桂燮泰2001地震预报引论(北京:科学出版社)]
[5]de Gennes P G.1999 to.Mod.Phys.71 S374
[6]Kadanoff L P 1999 Rev.Mod.Phys.71 S435
[7]Lu K Q,Liu J X,2004 Physics 33 629,713(in Chinese)[陆坤权,刘寄星2004物理33 629,713]
[8]Duran J 1999 Sands,Powders,and Grains,An Introduction to the Physics of Granular Materials(New York:Springer)
[9]Brace W F,Byerlee J D 1966 Sience 153 990
[10]Burridge R,Knopoff L 1967 Bull.Seismoi.Soc.Am.57 341
[11]Agnolin I,Roux J N 2007 Phys.Rev.E 76 061304
[12]Liu A J,Nagel S R 1998 Nature 396 21
[13]Trappe V,Prasad V,Cipelletti L,Segre P N,Weitz D A 2001 Nature 411772
[14]To K,Lai P Y,Pak H K 2001 Phys.Rev.Lett.86 71
[15]Hou M Y,Chen W,Zhang T,Lu K Q,Chan C K 2003 Phys.Rev. Lett.91 204301
[16]Zhu X H,Cai Y L 2006 Advance in Earth Sciences 21 496(in Chinese)[朱晓华,蔡运龙2006地球科学进展21 496]
[17]Yang S D Ed.2001 An Outline of Earth Sciences(2nd Ed.) (Hangzhou:Zhejiang University Press)(in Chinese)[杨树铎主编2001地球科学概论(第2版)(杭州:浙江大学出版社)]
[18]Song X D,Li S T,Li Y C,Zheng S H.Xie X N 2004 Earth Sci. J.China Univ.Geosci.9 531(in Chinese)[宋晓东,李思田,李迎春,郑斯华,解习农2004中国地质大学学报:地球科学9 531]
[19]Li Z W,Xu Y,Hao T Y,Liu J S,Zhang L 2006 Chin.J.Geophys. 49 707(in Chinese)[李志伟,胥颐,郝天珧,刘劲松,张岭2006地球物理学报49 707]
[20]Helffrich G R,Wood B J 2001 Nature 412 501
[21]Teng J W 1996 Introduction to Solid Geophysics(Beijing:Seismic Press)(in Chinese)[腾吉文1996固体地球物理学概论(北京:地震出版社)]
[22]Li Y H,Wu Q J,Tian X B,Zhang R Q,Pan J T 2009 Chin.J. Geophys.52 67(in Chinese)[李永华,吴庆举,田小波,张瑞青,潘佳铁2009地球物理学报52 67]
[23]Dragert H,Wang K,James T S 2001 Science 292 1525
[24]Wang Q,Zhang P Z,Niu Z J,Freymueller J T,Lai X A,Li Y X, Zhu W Y,Liu J N,Bilhan R,Larson K M 2001 Sci.China D 31 529(in Chinese)[王琪,张培震,牛之俊,Freymueller J T.赖锡安,李延兴,朱文耀,刘经南,Bilhan R,Larson K M 2001中国科学(D辑)31 529
[25]Zhang P Z,Deng Q D,Zhang G M,Ma J,Gan W J,Min W,Mao F Y,Wang Q 2003 Sci.China D 33 12(in Chinese)[张培震,邓起东,张国民,马瑾,甘卫军,闵伟,毛凤英,王琪2003中国科学(D辑)3312]
[26]Li Y X,Yang G H,Li Z,Guo L Q,Huang C,Zhu W Y,Fu Y,Wang Q,Jiang Z S,Wang M 2003 Sci.China D 33 65(in Chinese) [李延兴,杨国华,李智,郭良迁,黄城,朱文耀,符养,王琪,江在森,王敏2003中国科学(D辑)33 65]
[27]Tang H T,Zhang X L,Zhang X,Jiang F Y 2011 Plateau Earthquake Research 23 37(in Chinese)唐红涛,张晓亮,张希,蒋锋云2011高原地震23 37]
[28]Zhang P Z,Xu X W,Wen X Z,Ran Y K 2008 Chin.J.Geophys. SI 1066(in Chinese)张培震,徐锡伟,闻学泽,冉勇康2008地球物理学报51 1066]
[29]Shen Z K,Sun J B,Zhang P Z,Wan Y G,Wang M,Burgmann R, Zeng Y H,Gan W J,Liao H,Wang Q L 2009 Nature Geosci.2 718
[30]Lu K Q,Hou M Y,Wang Q,Jiang Z H,Liu J X 2011 Acta Phys. Sin.60 119101(in Chinese)[陆坤权,厚美瑛,王强,姜泽辉,刘寄星2011物理学报60 119101]
[31]Wang L 2004 Earthquake Research in Sichuan 110 42(in Chinese)[王兰2004四川地震11042]
[32]Niu F L,Silver P G,Daley T M 2008 Nature 454 204
[33]Jiang J X,Yin G H,Wang Z H,Wang X G,Tang X Y 2004 Chin. J.Rock Mechan.Engin.23 4072(in Chinese)[蒋靖祥,尹光华,王在华,王新刚,唐小勇2004岩石力学与工程学报23 4072]
[34]Jiang J X,Yin G H 2005 J.Geodesy Geodynamics 25 91(in Chinese) [蒋靖祥,尹光华2005大地测量与地球动力学25 91]
[35]Peng H,Ma X M,Jiang J J 2008 J.Geomechanics 14 97 (in Chinese)[彭华,马秀敏,姜景捷2008地质力学学报14 97]
[36]Fan G Y,Shi L Q,Li L S 2002 J.Seismology 22 7(in Chinese)[范桂英,拾礼勤,李兰生2002地震学刊22 7]
[37]Qiu Z H,Zhang B H,Chi S L,Tang L,Song M 2010 Sci.China: Geosci.40 1031(in Chinese)[邱泽华,张宝红,池顺良,唐磊,宋茉2010中国科学:地球科学40 1031]
[38]The Monitoring and Prediction Department of China Seismological Bureau 2005 The Indonesian Earthquake and Its Impact on the Chinese Mainland Area(Beijing:Seismic Press)(in Chinese)[中国地震局监测预报司编2005 2004年印尼8.7级大地震及其对中国大陆地区的影响(北京:地震出版社)]
[39]Lu K Q,Hou M Y,Wang Q,Peng Z,Sun W,Sun X M,Wang Y Y, Tong X H,Jiang Z H,Liu J X 2011 Chin.Sci.Bull.56 1071[陆坤权,厚美瑛,王强,彭政,孙威,孙晓明,王玉莹,佟晓辉,姜泽辉,刘寄星2011科学通报56 1071]
[40]Li J,Jin X,Zhou Z R,Lin S,Yuan L W,Chen Y 2009 Acta Seismol. Sin.31 629(in Chinese)[李军,金星,周峥嵘,林树,袁丽文,陈莹2009地震学报31 629]
[41]Frohlish C 1989 Ann.Rev.Earth Planet.Sci.17 227
[42]Green H W,Houston H 1995 Annu.Rev.Earth Planet.Sci.23 169
[43]Li G B 2005 Plateau Earthquake Research 17 33(in Chinese)[李国斌2005高原地震17 33]
[44]Che Y T,Gu Y Z,Yu J Z,Liu W Z 2002 Earthquake 22 106(in Chinese)[车用太,谷元珠,鱼金子,刘五洲2002地震22 106]
[45]Zhang X M,Zhai Y Z,Guo J F,Guo X Z,Han H P 2006 Earthquake 26 82(in Chinese)[张学民,翟彦忠,郭建芳,郭学增,韩和平2006地震26 82]
[46]Xu S X 2006 Chin.Academy Engin.8 14(in Chinese)[许绍燮2006中国工程科学8 14]
[47]Zhang G M,Wang S Y,Li L,Zhang X D,Ma H S 2002 Chin.Sci. Bull.47 663(in Chinese)[张国民,汪素云,李丽,张晓东,马宏生2002科学通报47 663]
[48]Bak P(translated by Li W,Cai M) 2001 How Nature Works (Wuhan:Central China Normal University Press)[巴克帕著(李炜,蔡勖译)2001大自然如何工作(武汉:华中师范大学出版社)]
[49]Wu Z L,Jiang C S 2005 Earthquake Research in China 21 103(in Chinese)[吴忠良,蒋长胜2005中国地震21 103]
[50]Wu Z L,Jiang C S 2006 Earthquake Research in China 22 236(in Chinese)[吴忠良,蒋长胜2006中国地震22 236]
[51]Wang Y Z,Shen Z K 2007 Earthquake Research in China 23 1(in Chinese)[王阎昭,沈正康2007中国地震23 1]
[52]Zhang G M,Ma H S,Wang H,Li L 2004 Sci.China D 34 591(in Chinese)[张国民,马宏生,王辉,李丽2004中国科学(D辑) 34 591]
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