汶川地震都江堰市人员伤亡研究
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摘要
都江堰市在汶川地震中人员伤亡严重,文中主要研究了该市所辖地区人员伤亡的时空分布特征及影响人员伤亡数的各种因素,希望对城市防震减灾具有参考意义。根据都江堰地区各乡镇的烈度及人员伤亡数据,分析了地震烈度及人口密度对人员死亡率的影响,并给出了死亡率与烈度及人口密度的经验关系式,结果表明死亡率与烈度具有较明显的正相关性。研究了死亡率随断层距的变化规律,分析表明死亡率与断层距的相关性比与烈度的相关性更明显。采用断层距估计人口死亡率在一定程度上减小了烈度评定中人为等因素带来的不确定性,因而更具客观性。定量分析了报道死亡人数随时间的变化规律,定性讨论了救援效率与报道死亡人数的关系,报道死亡人数占总死亡人数的比例与救援效率成正比。总结了造成人员伤亡的几种因素,认为房屋破坏和倒塌是造成人员伤亡的主要原因,而且不同结构类型房屋破坏造成的人员伤亡率相差甚大,这是在人员伤亡评估中需要注意的问题。
Dujiangyan City suffered heavy casualties in Wenchuan earthquake.This paper studies the spatiotemporal distribution characters and factors impacting casualties of this city to provide some reference for urban earthquake disaster mitigation.Based on the earthquake intensity and casualty data of each town,the effects of earthquake intensity and population density on death rate are analyzed,and the empirical expressions are given.The result shows that there is an obvious positive correlation between mortality rate and earthquake intensity.The change of death rate with fault distance is studied,and it's shown that the correlation between death rate and fault distance is higher than the correlation between death rate and earthquake intensity.To some extent,estimation of death rate based on fault distance reduces the human caused uncertainty in intensity evaluation,which is thus more objective.The changes of the number of reported deaths with time are quantitatively analyzed,and the effects of rescue efficiency on the reported deaths are qualitatively discussed.The ratio of reported deaths to total deaths is proportional to rescue efficiency.By summarizing several factors causing casualties,it is shown that destruction and collapse of building structures are the main reason of casualties,and the death rate caused by building damage depends on the building type.Attention should be paid to this issue when estimating the casualty rate.
Dujiangyan City suffered heavy casualties in Wenchuan earthquake.This paper studies the spatiotemporal distribution characters and factors impacting casualties of this city to provide some reference for urban earthquake disaster mitigation.Based on the earthquake intensity and casualty data of each town,the effects of earthquake intensity and population density on death rate are analyzed,and the empirical expressions are given.The result shows that there is an obvious positive correlation between mortality rate and earthquake intensity.The change of death rate with fault distance is studied,and it's shown that the correlation between death rate and fault distance is higher than the correlation between death rate and earthquake intensity.To some extent,estimation of death rate based on fault distance reduces the human caused uncertainty in intensity evaluation,which is thus more objective.The changes of the number of reported deaths with time are quantitatively analyzed,and the effects of rescue efficiency on the reported deaths are qualitatively discussed.The ratio of reported deaths to total deaths is proportional to rescue efficiency.By summarizing several factors causing casualties,it is shown that destruction and collapse of building structures are the main reason of casualties,and the death rate caused by building damage depends on the building type.Attention should be paid to this issue when estimating the casualty rate.
引文
[1]傅征祥,李革平.地震生命损失研究[M].北京:地震出版社,1993:12-125.
[2]Coburn A W,Pornonis A,Sakai S.Assessing strategies to reduce fatalities in earthquakes[C]//Proceedings of international workshops on earth-quake injury epidermology for mitigation and response.Baltimore.Maryland,1989:107-132.
[3]尹之潜.中国地震灾害损失预测研究[M].北京:地震出版社,1990:1-135.
[4]邹其嘉,毛国敏,孙振凯,等.地震人员伤亡易损性研究[J].自然灾害学报,1995,4(3):60-69.ZOU Qijia,MAO Guomin,SUN Zhenkai,et al.Vulnerability study on casualties due to earthquake[J].1995,4(3):60-69.(in Chinese)
[5]肖光先.地震损失的预测方法[J].地震学刊,1987(1):23-29.XIAO Guangxian.Prediction method on earthquake loss[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,1987(1):23-29.(in Chinese)
[6]马玉宏,谢礼立.地震人员伤亡估算方法研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,2000,20(4):140-147.MA Yuhong,XIE Lili.Methodologies for assessment of earthquake casualties[J].Journal of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,2000,(4):140-147.(in Chinese)
[7]赵振东,林均歧,钟江荣,等.地震人员伤亡指数与人员伤亡状态函数[J].自然灾害学报,1998,7(3):90-96.ZHAO Zhendong,LIN Junqi,ZHONG Jiangrong,et al.The index and state-function of casualties in earthquake[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,1998,7(3):90-96.(in Chinese)
[8]赵振东,钟江荣,郑向远.地震人员伤亡的动态评估[J].地震工程与工程振动,1999,l9(4):l49-156.ZHAO Zhendong,ZHONG Jiangrong,ZHENG Xiangyuan.Dynamic assessment of seismic casualties[J].Journal of Earthquake Engineering andEngineering Vibration,1999,19(4):149-156.(in Chinese)
[9]赵振东,郑向远.地震人员伤亡研究的回顾与进展[J].自然灾害学报,2000,9(1):93-99.ZHAO Zhendong,ZHENG Xiangyuan.Review and progress of seismic casualties assessment[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2000,9(1):93-99.(in Chinese)
[10]吴新燕,顾建华,吴昊昱.地震报道死亡人数随时间的修正指数模型[J].地震学报,2009,31(4):457-463.WU Xinyan,GU Jianhua,WU Haoyu.A modified exponential model for reported casualties during earthquakes[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,2009,31(4):457-463.(in Chinese)
[11]韩新民,毛玉平,周瑞奇.1970年通海7.7级地震人员伤亡研究[J].地震研究,1996,19(2):199-205.HAN Xinmin,MAO Yuping,ZHOU Ruiqi.Study on casualties on Tonghai M=7.7 earthquake in 1970[J].Journal of Seismological Research.1996,19(2):199-205.(in Chinese)
[12]汶川8.0级地震烈度分布图。中国地震局网站,http://www.cea.gov.cn/
[13]四川省统计局.四川统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2008.
[14]李锰,尹力峰,宋立军.新疆喀什地区乡村地震人员伤亡矩阵与对比研究[J].自然灾害学报,2000,9(1):100-104.LI Meng,YIN Lifeng,SONG Lijun.Aeismic casualty matrix and its comparison research of rural karshi Area in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2000,9(1):100-104.(in Chinese)
[15]刘倬,吴忠良.地震和地震海啸中报道死亡人数随时间变化的一个简单模型[J].中国地震,2005,21(4):526-529.LIU Zhuo,WU Zhongliang.A simple model of reported casualties during earthquakes and earthquake-generated tsunamis[J].Earthquake Re-search in China.2005,21(4):526-529.(in Chinese)
[16]王艳茹,王宝光,戴君武,等.“5.12”汶川大地震人员伤亡的时空分布特点[J].自然灾害学报,2009,18(6):52-56.WANG Yanru,WANG Baoguang,DAI Junwu,et al.Spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of casualties in great 5.12 Wenchuan earthquake[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2009,18(6):52-56.(in Chinese)
[17]张敏政.汶川地震中都江堰市的房屋震害[J].地震工程与工程振动,2008,28(3):1-6.ZHANG Minzheng.Building damage in Dujiangyan during M8.0 Wenchuan earthquake[J].Journal of Earthquake Engineering and EngineeringVibration,2008,28(3):1-6.(in Chinese)
[2]Coburn A W,Pornonis A,Sakai S.Assessing strategies to reduce fatalities in earthquakes[C]//Proceedings of international workshops on earth-quake injury epidermology for mitigation and response.Baltimore.Maryland,1989:107-132.
[3]尹之潜.中国地震灾害损失预测研究[M].北京:地震出版社,1990:1-135.
[4]邹其嘉,毛国敏,孙振凯,等.地震人员伤亡易损性研究[J].自然灾害学报,1995,4(3):60-69.ZOU Qijia,MAO Guomin,SUN Zhenkai,et al.Vulnerability study on casualties due to earthquake[J].1995,4(3):60-69.(in Chinese)
[5]肖光先.地震损失的预测方法[J].地震学刊,1987(1):23-29.XIAO Guangxian.Prediction method on earthquake loss[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,1987(1):23-29.(in Chinese)
[6]马玉宏,谢礼立.地震人员伤亡估算方法研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,2000,20(4):140-147.MA Yuhong,XIE Lili.Methodologies for assessment of earthquake casualties[J].Journal of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,2000,(4):140-147.(in Chinese)
[7]赵振东,林均歧,钟江荣,等.地震人员伤亡指数与人员伤亡状态函数[J].自然灾害学报,1998,7(3):90-96.ZHAO Zhendong,LIN Junqi,ZHONG Jiangrong,et al.The index and state-function of casualties in earthquake[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,1998,7(3):90-96.(in Chinese)
[8]赵振东,钟江荣,郑向远.地震人员伤亡的动态评估[J].地震工程与工程振动,1999,l9(4):l49-156.ZHAO Zhendong,ZHONG Jiangrong,ZHENG Xiangyuan.Dynamic assessment of seismic casualties[J].Journal of Earthquake Engineering andEngineering Vibration,1999,19(4):149-156.(in Chinese)
[9]赵振东,郑向远.地震人员伤亡研究的回顾与进展[J].自然灾害学报,2000,9(1):93-99.ZHAO Zhendong,ZHENG Xiangyuan.Review and progress of seismic casualties assessment[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2000,9(1):93-99.(in Chinese)
[10]吴新燕,顾建华,吴昊昱.地震报道死亡人数随时间的修正指数模型[J].地震学报,2009,31(4):457-463.WU Xinyan,GU Jianhua,WU Haoyu.A modified exponential model for reported casualties during earthquakes[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,2009,31(4):457-463.(in Chinese)
[11]韩新民,毛玉平,周瑞奇.1970年通海7.7级地震人员伤亡研究[J].地震研究,1996,19(2):199-205.HAN Xinmin,MAO Yuping,ZHOU Ruiqi.Study on casualties on Tonghai M=7.7 earthquake in 1970[J].Journal of Seismological Research.1996,19(2):199-205.(in Chinese)
[12]汶川8.0级地震烈度分布图。中国地震局网站,http://www.cea.gov.cn/
[13]四川省统计局.四川统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2008.
[14]李锰,尹力峰,宋立军.新疆喀什地区乡村地震人员伤亡矩阵与对比研究[J].自然灾害学报,2000,9(1):100-104.LI Meng,YIN Lifeng,SONG Lijun.Aeismic casualty matrix and its comparison research of rural karshi Area in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2000,9(1):100-104.(in Chinese)
[15]刘倬,吴忠良.地震和地震海啸中报道死亡人数随时间变化的一个简单模型[J].中国地震,2005,21(4):526-529.LIU Zhuo,WU Zhongliang.A simple model of reported casualties during earthquakes and earthquake-generated tsunamis[J].Earthquake Re-search in China.2005,21(4):526-529.(in Chinese)
[16]王艳茹,王宝光,戴君武,等.“5.12”汶川大地震人员伤亡的时空分布特点[J].自然灾害学报,2009,18(6):52-56.WANG Yanru,WANG Baoguang,DAI Junwu,et al.Spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of casualties in great 5.12 Wenchuan earthquake[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2009,18(6):52-56.(in Chinese)
[17]张敏政.汶川地震中都江堰市的房屋震害[J].地震工程与工程振动,2008,28(3):1-6.ZHANG Minzheng.Building damage in Dujiangyan during M8.0 Wenchuan earthquake[J].Journal of Earthquake Engineering and EngineeringVibration,2008,28(3):1-6.(in Chinese)
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