对地震预测的一个统计物理算法在川滇地区的回溯性预测检验
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摘要
基于复杂系统统计力学的地震物理预测模型——图像信息学(PatternInformatics,PI)算法近年来得到了较大发展.利用此方法对1988年以来川滇地区进行了回溯性预测检验,探讨了将其应用于中国大陆时间相依的地震危险性分析的可能性.使用1970~2007年ML3.0级以上区域地震目录,针对MS5.5级及以上预测"目标震级",采用15a尺度的地震目录滑动时间窗、均为5a尺度的地震活动"异常学习"时段和"预测时间窗"进行PI算法计算.对PI算法预测效果使用ROC检验方法进行了统计检验,结果表明,PI算法预测效果不但明显优于随机预测,同时优于基于地震丛集理论进行地震数目统计的地震相对强度(RelativeIntensity,RI)算法.当将"预测时间窗"缩短为3和1a时间尺度时,PI算法的预测效果虽仍优于随机预测,但相对5a"预测时间窗"明显下降.对于1a尺度"预测时间窗",PI算法预测效果与RI算法基本相当,这表明,在此时间尺度下,地震活动的丛集属性占主导地位.
引文
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5Nanjo K Z,Rundle J B,Holliday J R,et al.Pattern informatics and its application for optimal forecasting of large earthquakes in Ja-pan.Pure Appl Geophys,2006,163:2417—2432
6Chen C C,Rundle J B,Holliday J R,et al.The1999Chi-Chi,Taiwan,earthquake as a typical example of seismic activation and quies-cence.Geophys Res Lett,2005,32:L22315,doi:10.1029/2005GL023991
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13Xu X W,Deng Q D.Nonlinear characteristics of paleoseismicity in China.J Geophys Res,1996,101:6209—6231
14徐锡伟,张培震,闻学泽,等.川西及其邻近地区活动构造基本特征与强震复发模型.地震地质,2005,27:446—461
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16苏有锦,李永莉,李忠华,等.川滇地区区域地震目录完整性最小震级分析.地震研究,2003,26(增刊):10—16
17Holliday J R,Rundle J B,Tiampo K F,et al.Modification of the pattern informatics method for forecasting large earthquake events using complex eigenfactors.Tectonophysics,2006,413:87—91
18Robinson R.A test of the precursory accelerating moment release model on some recent New Zealand earthquakes.Geophys J Int,2000,140:568—576
19JauméS C,Sykes L R.Evolving towards a critical point:a review of accelerating seismic moment/energy release prior to large and great earthquake.Pure Appl Geophys,1999,155:279—306
20Field E D,eds.Special Issue-Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models.Seism.Res Lett,2007,78:17—140
21Swets J A.The relative operating characteristic in psychology.Science,1973,182:990—1000
22Molchan G M.Earthquake prediction as a decision-making problem.Pure appl Geophys,1997,149:233—247
23许绍燮.地震预报能力评分.见:国家地震局科技监测司编.地震预报方法实用化研究文集—地震学专辑.北京:学术书刊出版社,1989.586—589
24史勇军,吴忠良,白玲,等.位于预测区边界附近的地震统计检验问题.中国地震,2003,19:351—357
25周龙泉,张晓东,刘杰.基于中国大陆5级以上地震重复性的年度地震预测及其效能检验.中国地震,2006,22:311—320
26Kagan Y Y,Jackson D D.Probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes.Geophys J Int,2000,143:438—453
27Huang Q,Sobolev G A,Nagao T.Characteristics of the seismic quiescence and activation patterns before the M=7.2Kobe earth-quake,January17,1995.Tectonophysics,2001,337:99—116
28Jackson D D.Earthquake prediction and forecasting.In:IUGG,eds.State of the Planet:Frontiers and Challenges.Washington DC:AGU,2004.225—348
29Huang Q.Search for reliable precursors:A case study of the seismic quiescence of the2000western Tottori prefecture earthquake.J Geophys Res,2006,111(4),B04301,doi:10.1029/2005JB003982
2Rundle J B,Klein W,Turcotte D L,et al.Precursory seismic activation and critical-point phenomena.Pure Appl Geophys,2000,157:2165—2182
3Rundle J B,Turcotte D L,Shcherbakov R,et al.Statistical physics approach to understanding the multiscale dynamics of earthquake fault systems.Rev Geophys,2003,41(4):1019,doi:10.1029/2003RG000135
4Tiampo K F,Rundle J B,McGinnis S,et al.Mean-field threshold systems and phase dynamics:An application to earthquake fault sys-tems.Europhys Lett,2002,60:481—487
5Nanjo K Z,Rundle J B,Holliday J R,et al.Pattern informatics and its application for optimal forecasting of large earthquakes in Ja-pan.Pure Appl Geophys,2006,163:2417—2432
6Chen C C,Rundle J B,Holliday J R,et al.The1999Chi-Chi,Taiwan,earthquake as a typical example of seismic activation and quies-cence.Geophys Res Lett,2005,32:L22315,doi:10.1029/2005GL023991
7Field E D,eds.Special issue-Regional earthquake likelihood models.Seism Res Lett,2007,78:7—16
8Rundle J B,Tiampo K F,Klein W,et al.Self-organization in leaky threshold systems:The influence of near mean field dynamics and its implications for earthquakes,neurobiology,and forecasting.Proc Natl Acad Sci USA,2002,99(Suppl.1):2514—2521
9石耀霖,刘杰,张国民.对我国90年代年度地震预报的评估.中国科学院研究生院学报,2000,17:63—69
10Keilis-Borok V I,Rotwain I M.Diagnosis of time of increased probability of strong earthquakes in deferent regions of the world.Phys Earth Planet Int,1990,61:57—72
11彭克银,尹祥础,和锐.用临界点理论讨论应变能加速释放现象和孕震区尺度.中国地震,2003,19:425—430
12Holliday J R,Chen C C,Tiampo K F,et al.A RELM earthquake forecast based on pattern informatics.Seism Res Lett,2007,78:87—93
13Xu X W,Deng Q D.Nonlinear characteristics of paleoseismicity in China.J Geophys Res,1996,101:6209—6231
14徐锡伟,张培震,闻学泽,等.川西及其邻近地区活动构造基本特征与强震复发模型.地震地质,2005,27:446—461
15易桂喜,闻学泽,徐锡伟.川滇地区若干活动断裂带整体的强地震复发特征研究.中国地震,2002,18:267—276
16苏有锦,李永莉,李忠华,等.川滇地区区域地震目录完整性最小震级分析.地震研究,2003,26(增刊):10—16
17Holliday J R,Rundle J B,Tiampo K F,et al.Modification of the pattern informatics method for forecasting large earthquake events using complex eigenfactors.Tectonophysics,2006,413:87—91
18Robinson R.A test of the precursory accelerating moment release model on some recent New Zealand earthquakes.Geophys J Int,2000,140:568—576
19JauméS C,Sykes L R.Evolving towards a critical point:a review of accelerating seismic moment/energy release prior to large and great earthquake.Pure Appl Geophys,1999,155:279—306
20Field E D,eds.Special Issue-Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models.Seism.Res Lett,2007,78:17—140
21Swets J A.The relative operating characteristic in psychology.Science,1973,182:990—1000
22Molchan G M.Earthquake prediction as a decision-making problem.Pure appl Geophys,1997,149:233—247
23许绍燮.地震预报能力评分.见:国家地震局科技监测司编.地震预报方法实用化研究文集—地震学专辑.北京:学术书刊出版社,1989.586—589
24史勇军,吴忠良,白玲,等.位于预测区边界附近的地震统计检验问题.中国地震,2003,19:351—357
25周龙泉,张晓东,刘杰.基于中国大陆5级以上地震重复性的年度地震预测及其效能检验.中国地震,2006,22:311—320
26Kagan Y Y,Jackson D D.Probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes.Geophys J Int,2000,143:438—453
27Huang Q,Sobolev G A,Nagao T.Characteristics of the seismic quiescence and activation patterns before the M=7.2Kobe earth-quake,January17,1995.Tectonophysics,2001,337:99—116
28Jackson D D.Earthquake prediction and forecasting.In:IUGG,eds.State of the Planet:Frontiers and Challenges.Washington DC:AGU,2004.225—348
29Huang Q.Search for reliable precursors:A case study of the seismic quiescence of the2000western Tottori prefecture earthquake.J Geophys Res,2006,111(4),B04301,doi:10.1029/2005JB003982
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