地震灾害预测和应急模拟系统的设计与应用——以永安市城市应急系统为例
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摘要
城市防震减灾是地震潜在频发区提高自然灾害防治能力建设的重要方面。本文结合福建省永安市城市防震减灾信息管理系统的建设,探讨设计防震减灾数值模型,分析模型集成的关键技术,构建了地震风险评估、建筑物易损性评价、生命与财产损失估算、救援与救灾管理调度等模型和基于GIS开发的震害预测和应急模拟系统。该系统在福建省永安市的实际应用表明,通过对地震灾害预测结果的分析,可加强城市抗震中的薄弱环节,为灾区政府应急响应和制订对策提供决策支持辅助信息,从而显著提高城市防震减灾的综合能力。
Urban earthquake prevention and disa ster alleviation is one of the important factors which improve the ability of natural disaster prevention in the areas where earthquakes may occur frequently. Combining with the practice of constructing urban information management systems for anti-earthquake and seismic hazard reduction in Yongan City of Fujian Province,this paper not only discusses the mathematic models of earthquake prevention and disaster alleviation, but also analyses the critical techniques of model in tegration.In addition,a seismic hazard prediction and emergency simulation system was established based on GIS for seismic risk evaluation,vulnerability analys is of buildings,estimation of casualty and economic loss, search and rescue man agement. GIS has notable advantages for spatial analysis and graphic display.We can predict the influence of earthquake in virtue of many seismic mathematic models,such as the model of vulnerability analysis of buildings, estimation of casualty and economic loss, the influence of epicentrum. By GIS and relevant models,we can identify the coverage of earthquake which can directly affect the precision of final result. It is believed that the loss of earthquake depends on the intensity of the earthquake. Certainly,it is true.In the mathematic models, the scale and the direction of seismic grade affect the distribution range of ellipse. Another factor is also very important, that is the quality of buildings, which are affected by the materials, years and stories of a building.According to the result that leads to the formation of the models, we can take proper meas ures to reduce hazard before earthquake. The practical application of the system shows that it can not only intensify the weakness in urban earthquake preventi on according to the analysis of seismic hazard prediction result,but also provide auxiliary information for disaster affected area's decision-making and quick response.Therefore, the comprehensive abilities for urban earthquake prevention and disaster alleviation are improved evidently.
Urban earthquake prevention and disa ster alleviation is one of the important factors which improve the ability of natural disaster prevention in the areas where earthquakes may occur frequently. Combining with the practice of constructing urban information management systems for anti-earthquake and seismic hazard reduction in Yongan City of Fujian Province,this paper not only discusses the mathematic models of earthquake prevention and disaster alleviation, but also analyses the critical techniques of model in tegration.In addition,a seismic hazard prediction and emergency simulation system was established based on GIS for seismic risk evaluation,vulnerability analys is of buildings,estimation of casualty and economic loss, search and rescue man agement. GIS has notable advantages for spatial analysis and graphic display.We can predict the influence of earthquake in virtue of many seismic mathematic models,such as the model of vulnerability analysis of buildings, estimation of casualty and economic loss, the influence of epicentrum. By GIS and relevant models,we can identify the coverage of earthquake which can directly affect the precision of final result. It is believed that the loss of earthquake depends on the intensity of the earthquake. Certainly,it is true.In the mathematic models, the scale and the direction of seismic grade affect the distribution range of ellipse. Another factor is also very important, that is the quality of buildings, which are affected by the materials, years and stories of a building.According to the result that leads to the formation of the models, we can take proper meas ures to reduce hazard before earthquake. The practical application of the system shows that it can not only intensify the weakness in urban earthquake preventi on according to the analysis of seismic hazard prediction result,but also provide auxiliary information for disaster affected area's decision-making and quick response.Therefore, the comprehensive abilities for urban earthquake prevention and disaster alleviation are improved evidently.
引文
[1]Gao Yunxue·Suggestions on howto reduce earthquake disasters onliving buildingsin villages andtowns of China·Chinese Science Abstracts Series B,1995,14(3):60.
[2]Yin Zhiqian·Content of analysing earthquakelossesin city andthe process of countermeasures decision-makingfor disaster Mitigation·Chinese Science Abstracts Series B,1995,14(3):60.
[3]Shabestari,Khosrow T,Yamazaki Fumio,Saita Jun,et al·Esti mation of the spatial distribution of ground motion parameters for two recent earthquakes in Japan·Tectonophysics,2004,390(1-4):193~204.
[4]张晓东,张国民·关于地震预警的思考·国际地震动态,2004,(6):43~47.
[5]朱煌武·突发性地震灾害危机的预警和应急管理机制·灾害学,2004(1):78~82.
[6]陈秀万,杨凯欣,方裕,等·基于空间信息技术的城市应急救援联动系统研究·地理与地理信息科学,2003,19(4):49~53.
[7]邬伦,刘瑜,张晶,等·地理信息系统———原理、方法和应用·北京:科学出版社,2001.
[8]张永波,张礼中,周小元,等·地质灾害信息系统的设计与开发·北京:地质出版社,2001.
[9]Keilis-Borok,Vladi mir,Ismail-Zadeh,et al·Non-linear dynamics of the lithosphere and intermediate-term earth-quake prediction·Tectonophysics,2001,338(3-4):247~260.
[10]Japanese seismic rehabilitation of concrete buildings after the Hyogoken-Nanbu Earthquake·Cement and Concrete Composites,2000,22(1):59~79.
[11]Three destructive inland earthquakes in the central-western Yamaguchi Prefecture,southwest Japan and accompa-nied stress changes to their adjacent faults·Engineering Geology,2002,66(1-2):143~156.
[12]郭增建,陈鑫连主编·城市地震对策·北京:地震出版社,1991.
[13]尹之潜,等·震害与地震损失的估计方法·地震工程与工程震动,1990,10(1).
[14]赵成刚,冯启民,等·生命线地震工程·北京:地震出版社,1994.
[15]傅征祥,等·地震生命损失研究·北京:地震出版社,1993.
[16]王晓青,丁香·地震现场灾害损失评估地理信息系统·北京:地震出版社,2002.
[17]山东省地震工程研究院,胜利石油管理局地震台编·胜利石油管理局暨东营市防震减灾示范研究与应用·报告,2000.
[2]Yin Zhiqian·Content of analysing earthquakelossesin city andthe process of countermeasures decision-makingfor disaster Mitigation·Chinese Science Abstracts Series B,1995,14(3):60.
[3]Shabestari,Khosrow T,Yamazaki Fumio,Saita Jun,et al·Esti mation of the spatial distribution of ground motion parameters for two recent earthquakes in Japan·Tectonophysics,2004,390(1-4):193~204.
[4]张晓东,张国民·关于地震预警的思考·国际地震动态,2004,(6):43~47.
[5]朱煌武·突发性地震灾害危机的预警和应急管理机制·灾害学,2004(1):78~82.
[6]陈秀万,杨凯欣,方裕,等·基于空间信息技术的城市应急救援联动系统研究·地理与地理信息科学,2003,19(4):49~53.
[7]邬伦,刘瑜,张晶,等·地理信息系统———原理、方法和应用·北京:科学出版社,2001.
[8]张永波,张礼中,周小元,等·地质灾害信息系统的设计与开发·北京:地质出版社,2001.
[9]Keilis-Borok,Vladi mir,Ismail-Zadeh,et al·Non-linear dynamics of the lithosphere and intermediate-term earth-quake prediction·Tectonophysics,2001,338(3-4):247~260.
[10]Japanese seismic rehabilitation of concrete buildings after the Hyogoken-Nanbu Earthquake·Cement and Concrete Composites,2000,22(1):59~79.
[11]Three destructive inland earthquakes in the central-western Yamaguchi Prefecture,southwest Japan and accompa-nied stress changes to their adjacent faults·Engineering Geology,2002,66(1-2):143~156.
[12]郭增建,陈鑫连主编·城市地震对策·北京:地震出版社,1991.
[13]尹之潜,等·震害与地震损失的估计方法·地震工程与工程震动,1990,10(1).
[14]赵成刚,冯启民,等·生命线地震工程·北京:地震出版社,1994.
[15]傅征祥,等·地震生命损失研究·北京:地震出版社,1993.
[16]王晓青,丁香·地震现场灾害损失评估地理信息系统·北京:地震出版社,2002.
[17]山东省地震工程研究院,胜利石油管理局地震台编·胜利石油管理局暨东营市防震减灾示范研究与应用·报告,2000.
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