汶川县地震滑坡易发性LR与NN评价比较研究
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摘要
通过地理信息系统(GIS)技术,结合神经网络(NN)和逻辑回归模型(LR)开展汶川县范围内地震诱发滑坡易感性评价,并对两种模型结果进行比较研究。基于2008年5.12 Ms8.0级地震,选取高程、坡度、坡位、坡向、岩性、微地貌、距断层距离、距水系距离、距道路距离、年平均降雨量、归一化植被指数、地震峰值加速度共12个因子作为地震滑坡影响因子,基于ARCGIS10.1平台将这些影响因子专题图层栅格化;采用提取的模型训练样本,由R软件对神经网络(NN)和逻辑回归模型(LR)进行训练;将训练好的模型对整个汶川县地震滑坡易感性进行仿真,并将仿真结果划分为五类滑坡敏感区域:极低,低,中,高和极高,分别得到LR与NN模型仿真的滑坡易发性分区图;根据汶川县实际地震滑坡分布图进行统计分析,以及采用ROC曲线对两种模型的仿真结果进行对比分析,神经网络(NN)和逻辑回归模型(LR)的AUC值分别为0.930和0.941。研究表明两种模型的滑坡易感性评价图与实际滑坡发育基本吻合,评价结果较好,且LR模型预测精度相对较高。
Its purpose is to comparative study on the susceptibility mapping model of landslides at meizoseismal area 2008 Wenchuan earthquake by two statistics method: neural network and logistic regression. Based on the landslides from f ield investigation of in Wenchuan County, main influencing factors of the earthquake triggered landslides were studied, including 12 factors: peak ground acceleration(PGA), distance from faults, distance from drainage, distance from highway, slope gradient, average annual rainfall, normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI), lithology, slope position, elevation, slope aspect and micro-landform. Using ArcGIS 10.1 set up factors layers and corresponding raster data. NN model and LR model were achieved to training, testing and predicting by R software. The study area was reclassified into five categories of landslides susceptibility: very low, low, medium, high and very high. By statistics analysis, the landslide data from field investigation are good agreement with the evaluation results. The overall prediction capability are about 0.930 and 0.941 shown by AUC values of NN model and LR model, respectively. Both NN model and LR model are satisfactory for susceptibility mapping of landslide triggered by earthquake, but all results showed that the LR model seems to be slightly superior to the NN model.
Its purpose is to comparative study on the susceptibility mapping model of landslides at meizoseismal area 2008 Wenchuan earthquake by two statistics method: neural network and logistic regression. Based on the landslides from f ield investigation of in Wenchuan County, main influencing factors of the earthquake triggered landslides were studied, including 12 factors: peak ground acceleration(PGA), distance from faults, distance from drainage, distance from highway, slope gradient, average annual rainfall, normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI), lithology, slope position, elevation, slope aspect and micro-landform. Using ArcGIS 10.1 set up factors layers and corresponding raster data. NN model and LR model were achieved to training, testing and predicting by R software. The study area was reclassified into five categories of landslides susceptibility: very low, low, medium, high and very high. By statistics analysis, the landslide data from field investigation are good agreement with the evaluation results. The overall prediction capability are about 0.930 and 0.941 shown by AUC values of NN model and LR model, respectively. Both NN model and LR model are satisfactory for susceptibility mapping of landslide triggered by earthquake, but all results showed that the LR model seems to be slightly superior to the NN model.
引文
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[5]文海家,赵亮,黄勤.山地城镇高边坡灾变危险性区划研究[J].地下空间与工程学报,2011,7(3):609-613(Wen Haijia,Zhao Liang,Huang Qin.Research on fatalness regionalization of high slopes at mountainous town[J].Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering,2011,7(3):609-613(in Chinese))
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[8]刘艺梁,殷坤龙,刘斌.逻辑回归和人工神经网络模型在滑坡灾害空间预测中的应用[J].水文地质工程地质,2010,37(5):92-96(Liu Yiliang,Yin Kunlong,Liu Bin.Application of logistic regression and artifi cial neural networks in spatial assessment of landslide hazards[J].Hydrogeology&Engineering Geology,2010,37(5):92-96(in Chinese))
[9]许冲,徐锡伟.基于GIS和ANN模型的地震滑坡易发性区划[J].地质科技情报.2012,31(3):116-121(Xu Chong,Xu Xiwei.GIS and ANN model for earthquake triggered landslides susceptibility zonation[J].Geological Science and Technology Information,2012,31(3):116-121(in Chinese))
[10]Huang Runqiu,Xu Qiang.Rapid susceptibility mapping of co-seismic landslides triggered by the 2013 Lushan Earthquake using the regression model developed for the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake[J].Journal of Mountain Science,2013,10(5):699-715
[11]Xu C,Xu X X,Dai F C,et al.Application of an incomplete landslide inventory,logistic regression model and its validation for landslide susceptibility mapping related to the May 12,2008 Wenchuan earthquake of China[J].Natural Hazards,2013,68(2):883-900
[12]王进,郭靖,王卫东,等.权重线性组合与逻辑回归模型在滑坡易发性区划中的应用与比较[J].中南大学学报:自然科学版,2012,43(5):1932-1939(Wang Jin,Guo Jing,Wang Weidong,et al.Application and comparison of weighted liner combination model and logistic regression model in landside susceptibility mapping[J].Journal of Central South University:Science and Technology,2012,43(5):1932-1939(in Chinese))
[13]许冲,徐锡伟.逻辑回归模型在玉树地震滑坡危险性评价中的应用与检验[J].工程地质学报,2012,20(3):326-333(Xu Chong,Xu Xiwei.Logistic regression model and its validation for hazard mapping of landslides triggered by Yushu earthquake[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2012,20(3):326-333(in Chinese))
[14]黄润秋,许向宁,唐川,等.地质环境评价与地质灾害管理[M].北京:科学出版社,2008
[15]周国兵,马力,廖代强,等.重庆市山体滑坡等级预报研究[J].气象科学,2005,25(1):105-109(Zhou Guobing,Ma Li,Liao Daiqiang,et al.The research of landslip grade forecast in Chongqing[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2005,25(1):105-109(in Chinese))
[16]Meunier P,Hovius N,Haines A J.Regional patterns of earthquake-triggered landslides and their relation to ground motion[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2007,34(20):L20408
[17]Meunier P,Hovius N,Haines A J.Topographic site effects and the location of earthquake induced landslides[J].Earth and Planetary Science Letters,2008,275(3):221-232
[18]许冲,徐锡伟,吴熙彦,等.2008年汶川地震滑坡详细编目及其空间分布规律分析[J].工程地质学报,2013,21(1):25-44(Xu Chong,Xu Xiwei,Wu Xiyan,et al.Detailed catalog of landslides triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake and statistical analyses of their spatial distribution[J].Journal of Engineering Geology 2013,21(1):25-44(in Chinese))
[19]黄润秋,李为乐.汶川大地震触发地质灾害的断层效应分析[J].工程地质学报,2009,17(1):19-29(Huang Runqiu,Li Weile.Fault effect analysis of geo-harzard triggered by Wenchuan earthquake[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2009,17(1):19-29(in Chinese))
[20]Xu C,Xu X W,Dai F C,et al.Comparison of different models for susceptibility mapping of earthquake triggered landslides related with the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China[J].Computers&Geosciences,2012,46:317-329
[21]Xu C,Xu X W,Yao X,et al.Three(nearly)complete inventories of landslides triggered by May 12,Wenchuan Mw 7.9 earthquake of China and their spatial distribution statistical analysis[J].Landslides,2014,11(3):441-461
[22]Huang R Q,Li W L.Analysis of the geo-hazards triggered by the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake China[J].Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment,2009,68(3):363-371
[23]Yin Y,Wang F,Sun P.Landslide hazards triggered by the2008 Wenchuan earthquake,Sichuan,China[J].Landslides,2009,6(2):139-152
[24]Huang R Q,Li W L.Analysis of the geo–hazards triggered by the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake,China[J].Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment 2009,68(3):363-371
[25]Weiss A D.Topographic position and landforms analysis[C]//Anon.Environmental Systems Research Institute.Inc.International user Conference.San Diego,CA,USA,9-13,July,2001:200-200
[26]KurkováV.Kolmogorov's theorem and multilayer neural networks[J].Neural Networks,1992,5(3):501–506
[27]Rodriguez C E,Bommer J J,Chandler R J.Earthquake-induced landslides:1980-1997[J].Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering,1999,18(5):325-346
[28]Harp E L,Keefer D K,Sato H P,et al.Landslide inventories:the essential part of seismic landslide hazard analyses[J].Engineering Geology,2011,122(1):9-21
[2]张永兴,陈云,文海家,等.边坡灾害风险评估系统研究及应用[J].重庆大学建筑学报,2008,30(1):30-33(Zhang Yongxing,Chen Yun,Wen Haijia,et al.The research of landslide hazards assessment system[J].Journal of Chongqing Jianzhu University,2008,30(1):30-33(in Chinese))
[3]Wen H J,Zhang J L,Xu M.Safety assessment of high slopes in Three Gorges Reservoir area[J].International Journal of Terraspace Science and Engineering,2009,1(2):83-86
[4]文海家,李鑫,张永兴.山地城市高边坡风险管理系统研究及应用[J].工程力学,2010,27(S1):168-171(Wen Haijia,Li Xin,Zhang Yongxing.Study on the georisk mis of high slopes at mountainous region cities[J].Engineering Mechanics 2010,27(S1):168-171(in Chinese))
[5]文海家,赵亮,黄勤.山地城镇高边坡灾变危险性区划研究[J].地下空间与工程学报,2011,7(3):609-613(Wen Haijia,Zhao Liang,Huang Qin.Research on fatalness regionalization of high slopes at mountainous town[J].Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering,2011,7(3):609-613(in Chinese))
[6][6]Huang R Q,Tang C,Xu Q,et al.Co-seismic landslide inventory and susceptibility mapping in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake disaster area,China[J].Journal of Mountain Science,2013,10(3):339-354
[7]许冲,戴福初,徐锡伟.汶川地震滑坡灾害研究综述[J].地质论评,2010,56(6):860-874(Xu Chong,Dai Fuchu,Xu Xiwei.Wenchuan earthquake-induced landslides:an overview[J].Geological Review,2010,56(6):860-874(in Chinese))
[8]刘艺梁,殷坤龙,刘斌.逻辑回归和人工神经网络模型在滑坡灾害空间预测中的应用[J].水文地质工程地质,2010,37(5):92-96(Liu Yiliang,Yin Kunlong,Liu Bin.Application of logistic regression and artifi cial neural networks in spatial assessment of landslide hazards[J].Hydrogeology&Engineering Geology,2010,37(5):92-96(in Chinese))
[9]许冲,徐锡伟.基于GIS和ANN模型的地震滑坡易发性区划[J].地质科技情报.2012,31(3):116-121(Xu Chong,Xu Xiwei.GIS and ANN model for earthquake triggered landslides susceptibility zonation[J].Geological Science and Technology Information,2012,31(3):116-121(in Chinese))
[10]Huang Runqiu,Xu Qiang.Rapid susceptibility mapping of co-seismic landslides triggered by the 2013 Lushan Earthquake using the regression model developed for the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake[J].Journal of Mountain Science,2013,10(5):699-715
[11]Xu C,Xu X X,Dai F C,et al.Application of an incomplete landslide inventory,logistic regression model and its validation for landslide susceptibility mapping related to the May 12,2008 Wenchuan earthquake of China[J].Natural Hazards,2013,68(2):883-900
[12]王进,郭靖,王卫东,等.权重线性组合与逻辑回归模型在滑坡易发性区划中的应用与比较[J].中南大学学报:自然科学版,2012,43(5):1932-1939(Wang Jin,Guo Jing,Wang Weidong,et al.Application and comparison of weighted liner combination model and logistic regression model in landside susceptibility mapping[J].Journal of Central South University:Science and Technology,2012,43(5):1932-1939(in Chinese))
[13]许冲,徐锡伟.逻辑回归模型在玉树地震滑坡危险性评价中的应用与检验[J].工程地质学报,2012,20(3):326-333(Xu Chong,Xu Xiwei.Logistic regression model and its validation for hazard mapping of landslides triggered by Yushu earthquake[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2012,20(3):326-333(in Chinese))
[14]黄润秋,许向宁,唐川,等.地质环境评价与地质灾害管理[M].北京:科学出版社,2008
[15]周国兵,马力,廖代强,等.重庆市山体滑坡等级预报研究[J].气象科学,2005,25(1):105-109(Zhou Guobing,Ma Li,Liao Daiqiang,et al.The research of landslip grade forecast in Chongqing[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2005,25(1):105-109(in Chinese))
[16]Meunier P,Hovius N,Haines A J.Regional patterns of earthquake-triggered landslides and their relation to ground motion[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2007,34(20):L20408
[17]Meunier P,Hovius N,Haines A J.Topographic site effects and the location of earthquake induced landslides[J].Earth and Planetary Science Letters,2008,275(3):221-232
[18]许冲,徐锡伟,吴熙彦,等.2008年汶川地震滑坡详细编目及其空间分布规律分析[J].工程地质学报,2013,21(1):25-44(Xu Chong,Xu Xiwei,Wu Xiyan,et al.Detailed catalog of landslides triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake and statistical analyses of their spatial distribution[J].Journal of Engineering Geology 2013,21(1):25-44(in Chinese))
[19]黄润秋,李为乐.汶川大地震触发地质灾害的断层效应分析[J].工程地质学报,2009,17(1):19-29(Huang Runqiu,Li Weile.Fault effect analysis of geo-harzard triggered by Wenchuan earthquake[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2009,17(1):19-29(in Chinese))
[20]Xu C,Xu X W,Dai F C,et al.Comparison of different models for susceptibility mapping of earthquake triggered landslides related with the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China[J].Computers&Geosciences,2012,46:317-329
[21]Xu C,Xu X W,Yao X,et al.Three(nearly)complete inventories of landslides triggered by May 12,Wenchuan Mw 7.9 earthquake of China and their spatial distribution statistical analysis[J].Landslides,2014,11(3):441-461
[22]Huang R Q,Li W L.Analysis of the geo-hazards triggered by the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake China[J].Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment,2009,68(3):363-371
[23]Yin Y,Wang F,Sun P.Landslide hazards triggered by the2008 Wenchuan earthquake,Sichuan,China[J].Landslides,2009,6(2):139-152
[24]Huang R Q,Li W L.Analysis of the geo–hazards triggered by the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake,China[J].Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment 2009,68(3):363-371
[25]Weiss A D.Topographic position and landforms analysis[C]//Anon.Environmental Systems Research Institute.Inc.International user Conference.San Diego,CA,USA,9-13,July,2001:200-200
[26]KurkováV.Kolmogorov's theorem and multilayer neural networks[J].Neural Networks,1992,5(3):501–506
[27]Rodriguez C E,Bommer J J,Chandler R J.Earthquake-induced landslides:1980-1997[J].Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering,1999,18(5):325-346
[28]Harp E L,Keefer D K,Sato H P,et al.Landslide inventories:the essential part of seismic landslide hazard analyses[J].Engineering Geology,2011,122(1):9-21
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