基于MapInfo的中长期地震预测动态系统
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摘要
“中长期地震预测动态系统”(MapDEP 2 0 0 0forWindows)是以强震时 -空概率增益综合预测模型与单项地震预测模型的预测效能评价方法为理论基础 ,以强大的数据库为支持 ,集成桌面地图信息系统 (MapInfo)的主要功能而研制完成的运行于Windows 9x或以上环境下的地震综合预测系统。系统具有中长期单项预测方法的计算、异常提取、效能评价、概率增益统计、外推预测和概率增益综合预测等计算与各种输入 输出、图形显示等强大而实用的功能 ,为运用数据库和GIS实现多手段、多尺度、动态和交互的信息综合 ,进行地震预测提供了一套实用的系统和完整的解决方案。本文对该系统的科学依据、设计思想和主要功能进行了介绍
The dynamic medium- and long-term earthquake prediction system (MapDEP 2000 for Windows), based on the synthetic prediction model for spatial and temporal probability gain of strong earthquakes and the assessment method for earthquake forecast models, the powerful built-in database as well as main functions of desktop mapping information system (MapInfo), running on Windows 9x or up, has been developed for the synthetic earthquake prediction. The system have many powerful functions such as numerical calculation, anomaly analysis, predicting capability assessment and statistical analysis or prediction of probability gain for individual earthquake forecast method; the synthetic prediction by combining various forecast methods; input/output and database management. The system is practical and it provides an integrated resolution for earthquake prediction based on multi-methods, multi-scale, dynamical and interaction information composition. The main functions of the system are introduced in the paper.
The dynamic medium- and long-term earthquake prediction system (MapDEP 2000 for Windows), based on the synthetic prediction model for spatial and temporal probability gain of strong earthquakes and the assessment method for earthquake forecast models, the powerful built-in database as well as main functions of desktop mapping information system (MapInfo), running on Windows 9x or up, has been developed for the synthetic earthquake prediction. The system have many powerful functions such as numerical calculation, anomaly analysis, predicting capability assessment and statistical analysis or prediction of probability gain for individual earthquake forecast method; the synthetic prediction by combining various forecast methods; input/output and database management. The system is practical and it provides an integrated resolution for earthquake prediction based on multi-methods, multi-scale, dynamical and interaction information composition. The main functions of the system are introduced in the paper.
引文
黄玮琼、李文香、曹学锋,1994,中国大陆地震资料完整性研究之一———以华北地区为例,地震学报,16(3),273～280。
王晓青,2000,R值用于地震预测效能评估中的问题与改进,中国地震,16(3),256～262。
王晓青、傅征祥、张立人等,2000,中长期时空增益综合预测模型及其初步应用,地震学报,22(1),45～53。
Aki,K .,1981,AProbabilisticSynthesisofPrecursoryPhenomena,inEarthquakePredictionAnInternationalReview,ed.D .W .SimpsonandP .G .Richards,pp.566～574,A .G .U .,WashingtonD .C .
王晓青,2000,R值用于地震预测效能评估中的问题与改进,中国地震,16(3),256～262。
王晓青、傅征祥、张立人等,2000,中长期时空增益综合预测模型及其初步应用,地震学报,22(1),45～53。
Aki,K .,1981,AProbabilisticSynthesisofPrecursoryPhenomena,inEarthquakePredictionAnInternationalReview,ed.D .W .SimpsonandP .G .Richards,pp.566～574,A .G .U .,WashingtonD .C .
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