耦合潜源参数不确定性效应的地震海啸危险性分析——原理与方法
详细信息 本馆镜像全文    |  推荐本文 | | 获取馆网全文
摘要
总结基于数值模拟的地震海啸危险性分析的基本步骤,论述潜源位置界定原则、潜源参数取值方法、潜源地震海啸发生率估算方法,同时给出一种可以耦合潜源参数不确定性效应的地震海啸危险性分析方法。
The basic steps of the seismic tsunami hazard analysis based on numerical simulation is summarized.The specification of the potential seismic tsunami source location, selection of potential source parameters as well as estimation of the seismic tsunami occurrence rate is discussed. Meanwhile, a method of seismic tsunami hazard analysis coupling the uncertainty effect of the potential source parameters is proposed in this paper.
引文
[1]章在墉,冯时庆.地震危险性分析及其应用[M].上海:同济大学出版社,1996.
    [2]Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis:Guidance on Uncertainty and Use of Experts[R].Main Report,1997.
    [3]胡聿贤,鹿林.地震活动性估计的不确定性[M]//地震危险性分析中的综合概率法.北京:地震出版社,1990:176-185.
    [4]Geist E L,Parsons T.Probabilistic Analysis of Tsunami Hazards[J].Natural Hazards,2006,37(3):277-314.
    [5]Stein S,Geller R J,Liu M.Why earthquake hazard maps often fail and what to do about it[J].Tectonophysics,2012,562-563:1-25.
    [6]荆旭.地震危险性分析不确定性表征[J].核安全,2013(1):60-63.
    [7]Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission.Tsunami Glossary[M].Paris,UNESCO.IOC Technical Series,85,2008.
    [8]任鲁川,洪明理.地震海啸危险性分析研究进展[J].防灾科技学院学报,2012,14(2):9-14.
    [9]温瑞智,任叶飞,李小军,等.我国地震海啸危险性概率分析方法[J].华南地震,2012,31(4):1-13.
    [10]Liu Y C,Santos A,Wang S M,et al.Tsunami hazards along Chinese coast from potential earthquakes in South China Sea[J].Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors,2007,163(1-4):233-244.
    [11]Mansinha L,Smylie D E.The Displacement Fields of Inclined Faults[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1971,61(5):1433-1440.
    [12]Okada Y.Surface Deformation due to Shear and Tensile Faults in a Half-Space[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1985,75(4):1135-1154.
    [13]Goto C,Ogawa Y,Shuto N,et al.Numerical method of tsunami simulation with the leap frog scheme[Z].IUGG/IOC Time Project.IOC Manual,UNESCO 35.1997.
    [14]Titov V V,Gonzalez F I.Implementation and testing of the Method of Splitting Tsunami(MOST)model[R].NOAA Technical Memorandum ERL PMEL-112,1997.
    [15]Titov V,Synolakis C.Numerical modeling of tidal wave runup[J].Journal of Waterway,Port,Coastal,and Ocean Engineering,1998,124(4):151-171.
    [16]Titov V V,Gonzalez F I,Bernard E N,et al.Real-time tsunami forecasting:challenges and solutions[J].Natural Hazards,2005,35(1):35-41.
    [17]Liu P L-E,Woo S-B,Cho Y-S.Computer programs for tsunami propagation and inundation[EB/OL].Cornell University.1998.http://ceeserver.cee.cornell.Edu/pll-group/comcot-down.htm.
    [18]Wang W M.User Manual for COMCOT Version 1.7[EB/OL],2009.http://ceeserver.cee.cornell.edu/pll-group/comcot.htm.
    [19]于福江,叶琳,王喜年.1994年发生在台湾海峡的一次地震海啸的数值模拟[J].海洋学报,2001,23(6):32-39.
    [20]胡聿贤.地震安全性评价技术教程[M].北京:地震出版社,1999.
    [21]胡聿贤.地震危险性分析中的综合概率法[M].北京:地震出版社,1990.
    [22]陈颙,陈棋福.印尼地震海啸及其相关的地球物理现象[J].地球物理学进展,2005,20(1):112-117.
    [23]Kirby S,Geist E,Lee W H K,et al.Tsunami Source Characterization for Western Pacific Subduction Zones,A Preliminary Report[R].USGS Tsunami Subduction Source Working Group,2005.
    [24]Satake K,Tanioka Y.Sources of tsunami and tsunamigenic earthquakes in subduction zones[M]//Seismogenic and Tsunamigenic Processes in Shallow Subduction Zones.Birkh?user Basel,1999:467-483.
    [25]Lee W H K,Kirby S H,Diggles M F.compilers,2010,Program and abstracts of the Second Tsunami Source Workshop[EB/OL].2010.
    [26]Kirby S H,Wartman J,Choy G L,et al.Large Off-trench Earthquakes and Their Tsunami Potentials[C]//Program and Abstracts of the Second Tsunami Source Workshop.U.S.Geological Survey Open-File Report 2010-1152,2010.
    [27]蒋溥,戴丽思.工程地震学概论[M].北京:世界知识出版社,1993.
    [28]Philip L,Liu F,Wang X M.Andrew John Salisbury.Tsunami Hazard and Forecast Study in South China Sea[EB/OL].http://ceeserver.cee.cornell.edu/pll-group/comcot.htm.
    [29]陈运泰,杨智娴,许力生.海啸、地震海啸与海啸地震[J].物理,2005,34(12):864-872.
    [30]Hanks T C,Kanamori H.A moment magnitude scale[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,1979,84(B5):2348-2350.
    [31]Cornell C A.Engineering seismic risk analysis[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1968,58(5):1583-1606.
    [32]薛霆虓,邵志刚,傅容珊.特征地震现象和机制分析[J].地球物理学进展,2011,25(6):1887-1896.
    [33]Paul Segall.Testing Earthquake Recurrence Models:Space-Time Patterns of Slip-Deficit at Parkfield[EB/OL].http://pangea.stanford.edu/research/CDFM/index.html.
    [34]Rikitake T.Probability of a great earthquake to recur in the Tokai district,Japan:reevaluation based on newly-developed paleoseismology,plate tectonics,tsunami study,micro-seismicity and geodetic measurements[J].Earth,Planets and Space,1999,51(3):147-158.

版权所有:© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心