以空间光滑的地震活动性模型为空间分布函数的地震危险性分析方法
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摘要
根据华北地区的地震目录,建立了4个空间光滑的地震活动性模型,并以这些模型为空间分布函数,将华北地震区每个地震带的地震年发生率分配到空间格点中,计算这一地区的地震危险性.结果表明,采用仪器记录地震计算得到的地震活动性模型和地震危险性结果能够反映华北地区现今的地震活动水平和地震危险性水平,符合人们对现今华北地区地震危险性的认识;采用历史破坏性地震(M≥4.7)计算的地震活动性模型和地震危险性结果,较好地反映了华北地区中强地震活动区的地震危险性水平;以地震应变计算地震活动率,并根据点椭圆模型和线椭圆模型计算得到的地震活动性模型,能够较好地反映大地震的活动水平和空间构造特征.将根据4个模型计算得到的50年超越概率10%峰值加速度(PGA)分布加权平均,得到综合的华北地区PGA分布,并将该PGA分布与根据《中国地震动参数区划图》中综合潜源方案计算得到的50年超越概率10%的PGA分布做了比较,发现二者无本质差别,均能反映华北地震区的地震危险性水平.当然,二者也具有一定的差异:前者计算得到的符合PGA≥100cm/s2条件的区域面积明显要比后者的大,而符合PGA≥250cm/s2条件的区域面积则比后者的要小.这主要是由于潜在震源区类型和空间分布函数不同造成的.
In this study,we established four spatially smoothed seismicity models based on the earthquake catalog of North China.Taking these models as the spatial distribution function,we distributed the seismic annual rates into grid cells of every seismic belt in North China seismic area,and calculated the seismic hazard in this region.The result shows that,first,the seismic activitymodel and seismic hazard result both calculated by using instrumental earthquake catalog,can reflect the contemporary seismic activity level and seismic hazard level of North China area;second,the seismic activity model and seismic hazard result,both calculated by using historical earthquakes ( M≥4.7 ), represent the seismic hazard level of moderate earthquakes in North China quite well;third,the seismic activity,which is based on the calculation using point-ellipse model and linear-ellipse model involving seismic activity rate derived from seismic strain,can fairly well exhibit strong earthquakes ’ activity level and relevant tectonic characteristics.The PGA distribution in North China region is the average with an equal weight of four PGA values obtained from four seismicity models for 10% P.E.in 50a.Comparing this PGA distribution with another PGA distribution for 10% P.E.in 50a,which is calculated by combined potential seismic sources according to " National Seismic Zoning Map ", we find that there is no essential difference between them,and both of them can reflect the seismic hazard level of North China seismic region.Admittedly,there are still some differences between these two distributions : the area satisfying the condition of PGA≥100cm / s 2 calculated from the former is obviously larger than that calculated from the latter;nevertheless,the area satisfying PGA≥100cm / s 2 calculated from the former is smaller than the one calculated from the latter.It is principally due to the differences of potential seismic sources and spatial distribution functions.
In this study,we established four spatially smoothed seismicity models based on the earthquake catalog of North China.Taking these models as the spatial distribution function,we distributed the seismic annual rates into grid cells of every seismic belt in North China seismic area,and calculated the seismic hazard in this region.The result shows that,first,the seismic activitymodel and seismic hazard result both calculated by using instrumental earthquake catalog,can reflect the contemporary seismic activity level and seismic hazard level of North China area;second,the seismic activity model and seismic hazard result,both calculated by using historical earthquakes ( M≥4.7 ), represent the seismic hazard level of moderate earthquakes in North China quite well;third,the seismic activity,which is based on the calculation using point-ellipse model and linear-ellipse model involving seismic activity rate derived from seismic strain,can fairly well exhibit strong earthquakes ’ activity level and relevant tectonic characteristics.The PGA distribution in North China region is the average with an equal weight of four PGA values obtained from four seismicity models for 10% P.E.in 50a.Comparing this PGA distribution with another PGA distribution for 10% P.E.in 50a,which is calculated by combined potential seismic sources according to " National Seismic Zoning Map ", we find that there is no essential difference between them,and both of them can reflect the seismic hazard level of North China seismic region.Admittedly,there are still some differences between these two distributions : the area satisfying the condition of PGA≥100cm / s 2 calculated from the former is obviously larger than that calculated from the latter;nevertheless,the area satisfying PGA≥100cm / s 2 calculated from the former is smaller than the one calculated from the latter.It is principally due to the differences of potential seismic sources and spatial distribution functions.
引文
胡聿贤,高孟潭.2001.GB18306-2001《中国地震动参数区划图》宣贯教材[M].北京:中国标准出版社:52--56.
黄玮琼,李文香,曹学锋.1994.中国大陆地震资料完整性研究之一:以华北地区为例[J].地震学报,16(3):273--280.
马宗晋.1975.华北地区的地震地质分析[J].地震战线,(5):23--31.
汪素云,俞言祥,高阿甲,闫秀杰.2000.中国分区地震动衰减关系的确定[J].中国地震,16(2):99--106.
徐伟进,高孟潭.2012.空间光滑地震活动性模型中光滑函数的比较研究[J].地震学报,34(2):244--256.
杨勇,史保平,孙亮.2008.基于华北区域地震活动性分布的地震危险性评价模型[J].地震学报,30(2):198--208.
Bth M.1973.Introduction to Seismology[M].Birkhuser:Basel:1--395.
Beauval C,Scotti O,Bonilla F.2006.The role of seismicity models in probabilistic seismic hazard estimation:Compari-son of a zoning and a smoothing approach[J].Geophys J Int,165:584--595.
Benioff H.1951.Crustal strain characteristics derived from earthquake sequences[J].Trans Amer Geophys Union,32:508--514.
Cao T,Petersen M D,Reichle M S.1996.Seismic hazard estimate from background seismicity in southern California[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,86(5):1372--1381.
Cornell C A.1968.Engineering seismic risk analysis[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,58:1583--1606.
Frankel A.1995.Mapping seismic hazard in the central and eastern United States[J].Seism Res Lett,66(4):8--21.
Frankel A,Mueller C,Barnhard T,Leyendecker E,Wesson R,Harmsen S,Klein F,Perkins D,Dickamn N,HansonN,Hopper M.2000.USGS national seismic hazard maps[J].Earthquake Spectra,16:1--20.
Frankel A C,Mueller C S,Barnhard T,Perkins D,Leyendecker E V,Dickman N,Hanson S,Hopper M.1996.NationalSeismic-Hazard Maps:Documentation June 1996[R].Denver:U S Geol Surv Open-File Rept 96-532:3--10.
Frankel A D,Petersen M D,Mueller C S,Haller K M,Wheeler R L,Leyendecker E V,Wesson R L,Harmsen S C,Cramer C H,Perkins D M,Rukstales K S.2002.Documentation for the 2002 Update of the National SeismicHazard Maps[R].Denver:U S Geol Surv Open-File Rept 02-420:1--7.
Hagos L,Arvidsson R,Roberts R.2006.Application of the spatially smoothed seismicity and Monte Carlo Methods toestimate the seismic hazard of Eritrea and the surrounding region[J].Natural Hazards,39(3):395--418.
Kracke D W,Heinrich R.2004.Local seismic hazard assessment in areas of weak to moderate seismicity--case study fromEastern Germany[J].Tectonophysics,390(1--4):45--55.
Lapajne J K,Motnikar B,Zabukovec B,Zupancˇiˇc P.1997.Spatially smoothed seismicity modelling of seismic hazard inSlovenia[J].J Seism,1(1):73--85.
Lapajne J K,Motnikar B,Zupanˇcic P.2003.Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment methodology for distributed seis-micity[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,93(6):2502--2515.
McGuire R K.1976.Fortran Computer Program for Seismic Risk Analysis[R].Denver:U S GeoL Surv Open-FileRept 76--67:1--90.
Ogata Y,Utsu T,Katsura K.1995.Statistical features of foreshocks in comparison with other earthquake cluster[J].Geophys J Int,121(1):233--254.
Peláez Montillaa J A,Hamdacheb M,Casado C L.2003.Seismic hazard in Northern Algeria using spatially smoothedseismicity.Results for peak ground acceleration[J].Tectonophysics,372:105--119.
Peláez Montillaa J A,Casado C L.2002.Seismic hazard estimate at the Iberian Peninsula[J].Pure Appl Geophys,159:2699--2713.
Petersen M D,Frankel A D,Harmsen S C,Mueller C S,Haller K M,Wheeler R L,Wesson R L,Zeng Y H,Boyd OS,Perkins D M,Luco N,Field E H,Wills C J,Rukstales K S.2008.Documentation for the 2008 Update of theUnited States National Seismic Hazard Maps[R].Denver:U S Geol Surv Open-File Rept 2008-1128:4--39.
Reiter L.1990.Earthquake Hazard Analysis:Issues and Insights[M].New York:Columbia U Press:1--254.
Wells D L,Coppersmith K J.1994.New empirical relationships among magnitude rupture length rupture width rupturearea and surface displacement[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,84(4):974--1002.
Willmore P L ed.1979.Manual of Seismological Observatory Practice[M].World Data Center a for Solid Earth Geo-physics.Washington D C:U S Dept of Commerce,National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,EnvironmentalData and Information Service:1--165.
黄玮琼,李文香,曹学锋.1994.中国大陆地震资料完整性研究之一:以华北地区为例[J].地震学报,16(3):273--280.
马宗晋.1975.华北地区的地震地质分析[J].地震战线,(5):23--31.
汪素云,俞言祥,高阿甲,闫秀杰.2000.中国分区地震动衰减关系的确定[J].中国地震,16(2):99--106.
徐伟进,高孟潭.2012.空间光滑地震活动性模型中光滑函数的比较研究[J].地震学报,34(2):244--256.
杨勇,史保平,孙亮.2008.基于华北区域地震活动性分布的地震危险性评价模型[J].地震学报,30(2):198--208.
Bth M.1973.Introduction to Seismology[M].Birkhuser:Basel:1--395.
Beauval C,Scotti O,Bonilla F.2006.The role of seismicity models in probabilistic seismic hazard estimation:Compari-son of a zoning and a smoothing approach[J].Geophys J Int,165:584--595.
Benioff H.1951.Crustal strain characteristics derived from earthquake sequences[J].Trans Amer Geophys Union,32:508--514.
Cao T,Petersen M D,Reichle M S.1996.Seismic hazard estimate from background seismicity in southern California[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,86(5):1372--1381.
Cornell C A.1968.Engineering seismic risk analysis[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,58:1583--1606.
Frankel A.1995.Mapping seismic hazard in the central and eastern United States[J].Seism Res Lett,66(4):8--21.
Frankel A,Mueller C,Barnhard T,Leyendecker E,Wesson R,Harmsen S,Klein F,Perkins D,Dickamn N,HansonN,Hopper M.2000.USGS national seismic hazard maps[J].Earthquake Spectra,16:1--20.
Frankel A C,Mueller C S,Barnhard T,Perkins D,Leyendecker E V,Dickman N,Hanson S,Hopper M.1996.NationalSeismic-Hazard Maps:Documentation June 1996[R].Denver:U S Geol Surv Open-File Rept 96-532:3--10.
Frankel A D,Petersen M D,Mueller C S,Haller K M,Wheeler R L,Leyendecker E V,Wesson R L,Harmsen S C,Cramer C H,Perkins D M,Rukstales K S.2002.Documentation for the 2002 Update of the National SeismicHazard Maps[R].Denver:U S Geol Surv Open-File Rept 02-420:1--7.
Hagos L,Arvidsson R,Roberts R.2006.Application of the spatially smoothed seismicity and Monte Carlo Methods toestimate the seismic hazard of Eritrea and the surrounding region[J].Natural Hazards,39(3):395--418.
Kracke D W,Heinrich R.2004.Local seismic hazard assessment in areas of weak to moderate seismicity--case study fromEastern Germany[J].Tectonophysics,390(1--4):45--55.
Lapajne J K,Motnikar B,Zabukovec B,Zupancˇiˇc P.1997.Spatially smoothed seismicity modelling of seismic hazard inSlovenia[J].J Seism,1(1):73--85.
Lapajne J K,Motnikar B,Zupanˇcic P.2003.Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment methodology for distributed seis-micity[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,93(6):2502--2515.
McGuire R K.1976.Fortran Computer Program for Seismic Risk Analysis[R].Denver:U S GeoL Surv Open-FileRept 76--67:1--90.
Ogata Y,Utsu T,Katsura K.1995.Statistical features of foreshocks in comparison with other earthquake cluster[J].Geophys J Int,121(1):233--254.
Peláez Montillaa J A,Hamdacheb M,Casado C L.2003.Seismic hazard in Northern Algeria using spatially smoothedseismicity.Results for peak ground acceleration[J].Tectonophysics,372:105--119.
Peláez Montillaa J A,Casado C L.2002.Seismic hazard estimate at the Iberian Peninsula[J].Pure Appl Geophys,159:2699--2713.
Petersen M D,Frankel A D,Harmsen S C,Mueller C S,Haller K M,Wheeler R L,Wesson R L,Zeng Y H,Boyd OS,Perkins D M,Luco N,Field E H,Wills C J,Rukstales K S.2008.Documentation for the 2008 Update of theUnited States National Seismic Hazard Maps[R].Denver:U S Geol Surv Open-File Rept 2008-1128:4--39.
Reiter L.1990.Earthquake Hazard Analysis:Issues and Insights[M].New York:Columbia U Press:1--254.
Wells D L,Coppersmith K J.1994.New empirical relationships among magnitude rupture length rupture width rupturearea and surface displacement[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,84(4):974--1002.
Willmore P L ed.1979.Manual of Seismological Observatory Practice[M].World Data Center a for Solid Earth Geo-physics.Washington D C:U S Dept of Commerce,National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,EnvironmentalData and Information Service:1--165.
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