森林火灾重灾年(季)灾变原理和机制的研究
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摘要
根据辩证逻辑和唯物哲学“联系的普遍性和多样性”、“物质运动规律性”及“量变 -质变”原理和13年来对森林火灾与太阳黑子活动异常、海温异常、海陆气压异常、大气环流异常、强地震活动、地球自转速度变化等地球各圈层重大异常变化关系的研究结果和经验积累 ,以及近年来国内外自然灾害研究界共识的“许多自然灾害具有群发性、相关性和连锁性规律”观点 ,研究并提出了一个林区发生大规模森林火灾以至最终形成森林火灾重灾年 (季 )的基本原理———四因素轨迹交叉论理论 ,并同时提出了大规模森林火灾及森林火灾重灾年 (季 )的灾变机制和逻辑过程理论 ,为林火长期管理和科学地预防、控制森林火灾灾害提供了一种全新的理念 ,为森林火灾长期预报和防治决策提供了重要理论和基础
According to the dialectic logic and the theory of "the universality and the variety of the contact", " the regularity of the material movement " and the "quantitative change - qualitative change" principle of the material philosophy, the disaster changing principle for the year/quarter of great calamity of forest fire is demonstrated. After 13 years observation on the correlation of the forest fire with sunspot activity, the sea surface temperature abnormality, pressure abnormality of the sea and continent, the atmosphere circulation abnormality, the strong earthquake activity, the change of earth rotating velocity and the great abnormality of all layers of the earth, and according to the co-recognition in recent years that "many natural disasters have a tendency to happen in group, and are related with the catenarian regulation", the basic principle of the formation of the year/quarter of great calamity of forest fire is put forward. That is four elements track crossing theory, which brings up the disaster changing mechanism and the logic process theory of the large-scale forest fire and the forest fire serious disaster year/quarter. It provides a new principle and a new concept for the long-term management of forest fire, including scientific prevention and control. It also provides an important theory and basis for long period forecast and decision-making for preventing the forest fire.
According to the dialectic logic and the theory of "the universality and the variety of the contact", " the regularity of the material movement " and the "quantitative change - qualitative change" principle of the material philosophy, the disaster changing principle for the year/quarter of great calamity of forest fire is demonstrated. After 13 years observation on the correlation of the forest fire with sunspot activity, the sea surface temperature abnormality, pressure abnormality of the sea and continent, the atmosphere circulation abnormality, the strong earthquake activity, the change of earth rotating velocity and the great abnormality of all layers of the earth, and according to the co-recognition in recent years that "many natural disasters have a tendency to happen in group, and are related with the catenarian regulation", the basic principle of the formation of the year/quarter of great calamity of forest fire is put forward. That is four elements track crossing theory, which brings up the disaster changing mechanism and the logic process theory of the large-scale forest fire and the forest fire serious disaster year/quarter. It provides a new principle and a new concept for the long-term management of forest fire, including scientific prevention and control. It also provides an important theory and basis for long period forecast and decision-making for preventing the forest fire.
引文
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13 郭增建等著.未来灾害学.北京:地震出版社,1992
14 赵振国厄尔尼诺现象对北半球大气环流和中国降水的影响.大气科学,1996(4):422～428
2 王述洋.森林火灾大时间尺度活动成因规律及中长期预测预报理论研究.科技导报,1994(2):47～50
3 王述洋.森林火灾重灾年现象与海温异常变化关系研究.北京:林业科学,2002(5)
4 王述洋.未来十年黑龙江省森林火灾灾情宏观预测与对策.哈尔滨:森林防火,1993(2)
5 朝仓正著,周力泽.气候异常与环境破坏.北京:气象出版社,1991
6 任振球全球变化.北京:科学出版社,1990
7 谢思梅,王景毅,吉野正敏太阳活动与异常地球物理现象.灾害学,1986(1):29～37
8 王述洋,郑焕能等.大兴安岭森林火灾周期性演变与厄尔尼诺现象、太阳黑子活动关系的研究.森林防火,1991(3):2～4
9 王述洋.森林火灾年际变化对太阳活动.ELnino.南方涛动异常的响应.西安:灾害学,1993(2)
10 WangShuyang,CORRELATIONANALYSISOFFORESTFIRESANDSUNSPORT ,J ,NORTHEASTFORRESTUNIVERSITY ,1992,3(2).
11 WangShuyang,StudyOnRelationsBetweenHeavy-disaster- periodofForestFireActivityandSunsportActivity,SSTA ,JournalofNortheastForeastryUniversity,1994,5(4):27～32.
12 王述洋,苏建民,张 宁等.区域高火险时段现象与太阳活动异常的关系研究.东北林业大学学报,1993(6):22～25
13 郭增建等著.未来灾害学.北京:地震出版社,1992
14 赵振国厄尔尼诺现象对北半球大气环流和中国降水的影响.大气科学,1996(4):422～428
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