随机方法在地震烈度速报中的应用
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摘要
我国地震监测台网间距大,很难实现大震发生时地震烈度分布图的快速编制。基于随机方法,利用历史小震数据反演地震动估计模型的参数,参考地震发生时获取的少量强震动数据,选取合适的震源参数,正演地震动场的分布。根据地震烈度与地震动参数的经验关系,实现地震烈度速报。本方法可以模拟大震的近断层地震动特征,对高烈度区的判断较目前常用的烈度速报方法更为合理。研究成果既可以用于首张烈度分布图的发布,还能够用于地震烈度的动态修正。
Several destructive earthquakes occurred in China in recent years,which resulted in urgent demands of seismic intensity repaid report(SIRR).However,the distance interval of seismic monitoring network is too large to issue the distribution of seismic intensity immediately.Based on stochastic model,this study inverts the model parameters,such as source parameter,ground motion attenuation parameters and site amplification parameter,by using the ground motion records of small earthquakes.When moderate or large earthquakes come up in the future,the source parameter can be modified by a few strong ground motion records.Combined with the inverted ground motion attenuation parameters and site amplification parameters,new model can simulate the ground motion of moderate or large earthquakes.According to the relationship between ground motion parameters and seismic intensity,the SIRR can come true.The result of this study can be applied to issue the first-time seismic intensity report and the dynamic update of the report.In comparison with the ground motion attenuation relationship used in SIRR,stochastic model can not only predict the location and shape of Meizoseismic area more rationally,but also simulate the characteristics of near-fault ground motion,which can estimate the area of high seismic intensity more accurately.
Several destructive earthquakes occurred in China in recent years,which resulted in urgent demands of seismic intensity repaid report(SIRR).However,the distance interval of seismic monitoring network is too large to issue the distribution of seismic intensity immediately.Based on stochastic model,this study inverts the model parameters,such as source parameter,ground motion attenuation parameters and site amplification parameter,by using the ground motion records of small earthquakes.When moderate or large earthquakes come up in the future,the source parameter can be modified by a few strong ground motion records.Combined with the inverted ground motion attenuation parameters and site amplification parameters,new model can simulate the ground motion of moderate or large earthquakes.According to the relationship between ground motion parameters and seismic intensity,the SIRR can come true.The result of this study can be applied to issue the first-time seismic intensity report and the dynamic update of the report.In comparison with the ground motion attenuation relationship used in SIRR,stochastic model can not only predict the location and shape of Meizoseismic area more rationally,but also simulate the characteristics of near-fault ground motion,which can estimate the area of high seismic intensity more accurately.
引文
王玉石,周正华,王伟,等.基于假设检验的地震动强度(烈度)速报方法[J].地震工程与工程震动,2008,28(5):49-54.
喻畑.汶川地震区地震动估计经验模型[D].中国地震局工程力学研究所,2012,博士研究生学位论文.
袁一凡.由地震动三要素确定地震动强度(烈度)的研究[M].哈尔滨:国家地震局工程力学研究所,1998:1-51.
赵翠萍,陈章立,周连庆,等.汶川Mw 8.0地震震源破裂过程研究:分段特征[J].科学通报,2009,54(22):3 475-3 482.
中华人民共和国国家标准.中国地震烈度表(GB/T 17742—2008)[M].北京;中国标准出版社,2008.
Anderson J G,Hough S E.A Model for the shape of the fourier amplitude spectrum of acceleration at high frequencies[J],Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1984,74(5):1 969—1 993.
Boore D M.Stochastic simulation of high-frequency ground motions based on seismological models of the radiated spectra[J].Bull Seism Soc Am,1983,73(6):1 865-1 894.
Boore D M.Short-period P-and S-wave radiation from large earthquakes:implications for spectral scaling relations[J].Bull Seism Soc Am,1986,76(1),43-64.
Hanks T CKanamori H.A moment-magnitude scale[J].J Geophys Res,1979,84:2 348—2 350.
Herrmann R B.An extension of random vibration theory estimates of strong ground motion to large distance[J].Bull Seism Soc Am,1985,75(5),1 447-1 453.
Wells D,Coppersmith K.New empirical relationships among magnitude,rupture length,rupture width,rupture area,and surface displacement[J],Bull Seism Soc Am,1994,84(4),974—1 002.
喻畑.汶川地震区地震动估计经验模型[D].中国地震局工程力学研究所,2012,博士研究生学位论文.
袁一凡.由地震动三要素确定地震动强度(烈度)的研究[M].哈尔滨:国家地震局工程力学研究所,1998:1-51.
赵翠萍,陈章立,周连庆,等.汶川Mw 8.0地震震源破裂过程研究:分段特征[J].科学通报,2009,54(22):3 475-3 482.
中华人民共和国国家标准.中国地震烈度表(GB/T 17742—2008)[M].北京;中国标准出版社,2008.
Anderson J G,Hough S E.A Model for the shape of the fourier amplitude spectrum of acceleration at high frequencies[J],Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1984,74(5):1 969—1 993.
Boore D M.Stochastic simulation of high-frequency ground motions based on seismological models of the radiated spectra[J].Bull Seism Soc Am,1983,73(6):1 865-1 894.
Boore D M.Short-period P-and S-wave radiation from large earthquakes:implications for spectral scaling relations[J].Bull Seism Soc Am,1986,76(1),43-64.
Hanks T CKanamori H.A moment-magnitude scale[J].J Geophys Res,1979,84:2 348—2 350.
Herrmann R B.An extension of random vibration theory estimates of strong ground motion to large distance[J].Bull Seism Soc Am,1985,75(5),1 447-1 453.
Wells D,Coppersmith K.New empirical relationships among magnitude,rupture length,rupture width,rupture area,and surface displacement[J],Bull Seism Soc Am,1994,84(4),974—1 002.
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