自然灾害风险分析的时空尺度初探

英文篇名：A Preliminary Study on the Spatial and Temporal Scales of Natural Disaster Risk Analysis
中文刊名：灾害学
英文刊名：Journal of Catastrophology
作者：赵思健
英文作者：Zhao Sijian1 ; 2(1.Agricultural Information Institute of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences ; Key Laboratory of Digital Agricultural Early-warning Technology ; MOA ; Beijing 100081 ; China ; 2.Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management ; Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education ; Beijing Normal University ; Beijing 100875 ; China)
中文关键词：自然灾害 ; 风险分析 ; 时空差异 ; 时空尺度 ; 广度 ; 粒度
英文关键词：natural disaster ; risk analysis ; spatial and temporal variance ; spatial and temporal scale ; extent ; grain
出版日期：2012-04-20
机构：中国农业科学院农业信息研究所农业部智能化农业预警技术重点开放实验室;北京师范大学民政部/教育部应急与减灾管理研究院;
年：2012
期：02
出版单位：灾害学

摘要

自然灾害风险存在着显著的动态特性,即灾害风险会随时间与空间的变化而呈现出差异。研究自然灾害风险的时空差异是对自然灾害风险研究的进一步深化。其中,时空差异研究的一个重要前提条件是选择恰当的灾害风险分析的时空尺度。广度与粒度是时空尺度的两个孪生指标,时空广度限定了灾害风险评估在时间和空间上的有效范围,而时空粒度则是量度灾害风险时间和空间差异的最小单元。列出了风险时空差异的表达式,深入探讨自然灾害风险的时空尺度,并对我国三种典型的自然灾害(地震、洪涝和台风)风险分析的时空尺度选择进行了讨论,为进一步深入开展自然灾害风险时空差异分析奠定了基础。
Natural disaster risk varies in spatial and temporal dimensions.The study on spatial and temporal variance of natural disaster risk is a new challenge,in which the foremost subject is to explore its inherent spatial and temporal scales.As a twin index,the extent and grain play an important role in the scale study.In detail,the spatial and temporal extent could constrain the effective ranges of risk in spatial and temporal dimensions;while the spatial and temporal grain would be as smallest unit to present the variances of risk in spatial and temporal dimensions.In this paper,the expression about the spatial and temporal variance of natural disaster risk is given,and then the scale theory of natural disaster risk is discussed deeply.Finally the choosing of spatial and temporal scales for three kinds of natural disaster risks(earthquake,typhoon and flood) that occur frequently in China is discussed.This study laid a basis for further analysis of the spatial and temporal variance of natural disaster risk.

引文

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