抗旱能力研究理论框架
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摘要
在总结抗旱能力相关研究成果的基础上,探讨了抗旱能力的理论内涵及其评估方法。借鉴抗御地震和洪水等其他自然灾害能力、自然资源承载力的定义,综合考虑抗旱能力的自然与社会双重属性,兼顾相关行业中关于能力描述的两点要义:一是与灾害级别或量级大小联系在一起,二是强调人类的抵御活动及最大程度的概念,阐述了抗旱能力的定义及其内涵。基于构成要素和定义剖析,构建了抗旱能力评估方法体系,初步构建了抗旱能力基础理论研究框架。
The theoretical concept and evaluation method of drought resistance capacity were investigated based on the summary of current research on drought resistance capacity.The concepts of resistance capacity of other natural disasters such as earthquake and flood and carrying capacity of natural resources were used,and the natural and social properties of the drought resistance capacity were also considered.Two essences of capacity were generalized,including that the capacity was linked with the degree or magnitude of the disaster,and that the capacity emphasized the human resistant activity and the concept of maximum extent.On this basis,the definition of drought resistance capacity and its connotation were proposed.The assessment system of drought resistance capacity was constructed on the basis of the elements and definition analysis of drought resistance capacity.The framework of drought resistance capacity was preliminarily presented.
The theoretical concept and evaluation method of drought resistance capacity were investigated based on the summary of current research on drought resistance capacity.The concepts of resistance capacity of other natural disasters such as earthquake and flood and carrying capacity of natural resources were used,and the natural and social properties of the drought resistance capacity were also considered.Two essences of capacity were generalized,including that the capacity was linked with the degree or magnitude of the disaster,and that the capacity emphasized the human resistant activity and the concept of maximum extent.On this basis,the definition of drought resistance capacity and its connotation were proposed.The assessment system of drought resistance capacity was constructed on the basis of the elements and definition analysis of drought resistance capacity.The framework of drought resistance capacity was preliminarily presented.
引文
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[15]杨奇勇,冯发林,巢礼义.多目标决策的农业抗旱能力综合评价[J].灾害学,2007,22(2):5-8.(YANG Qi-yong,FENG Fa-lin,CHAO Li-yi.Comprehensive Evaluation on Ability of Coping with Agriculture Drought by Using Multi-objective Decision[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2007,22(2):5-8.(in Chinese))
[16]刘迎春,肖谦益.湖南农业抗旱能力综合评价[J].云南地理环境研究,2007,19(4):39-42,57.(LIU Ying-chun,XIAO Qian-yi.Comprehensive Evaluation on Ability of Coping with Agri-culture Drought in Yunnan[J].Yunnan Geographic Environ-ment Research,2007,19(4):39-42,57.(in Chinese))
[17]李树岩,刘荣华,成林,等.河南省农业综合抗旱能力分析与区划[J].生态学杂志,2009,28(8):1555-1560.(LI Shu-yan,LIU Rong-hua,CHENG Lin,et al.Comprehensive Agricul-tural Drought-resistant Capability of Henan Province:Analy-sis and Regionalization[J].Chinese Journal of Ecology,2009,28(8):1555-1560.(in Chinese))
[18]邓伟杰,金彦兆,李莉.甘肃省农业抗旱能力综合评价[J].人民长江,2010,41(12):105-107.(DENG Wei-Jie,JIN Yan-zhao,LI Li.Comprehensive Evaluation on Agriculture Drought-resistance Ability of Gansu Province[J].Yangtze River,2010,41(12):105-107.(in Chinese))
[19]科技部国家计委国家经贸灾害综合研究组.灾害.社会.减灾.发展:中国百年自然灾害态势与21世纪减灾策略分析[M].北京:气象出版社,2000.(State Planning Commission and the State Economic and Trade Ministry of Science and Technology of Disaster Research Group.Disaster.Society.Disaster Reduction.Development:The Hundred Years of Natural Disasters Trend Analysis and Mitigation Strategies in the21st Century in China[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2000.(in Chinese))
[20]史培军.灾害研究的理论与实践[J].南京大学学报(自然科学版),1991,(11):37-42.(SHI Pei-jun.Theory and Practice ofDisaster Study[J].Journal of Nanjing University(Natural Sciences),1991,(11):37-42.(in Chinese))
[21]长江流域规划办公室水文处.水利工程实用水文水利计算[M].北京:水利出版社,1980.(Bureau of Hydrology,Changjiang Water Resources Commission.Water Conservan-cy Engineering Hydrology and Hydraulic Calculation[M].Beijing:China WaterPower Press,1980.(in Chinese))
[22]林世镔.建筑物抗震能力研究[D].哈尔滨:中国地震局工程力学研究所,2010.(LIN Shi-bin.Study on Seismic Capacity of Buildings[D].Haerbin:Institute of Engineering Mechanics,China Earthquake Administration,2010.(in Chinese))
[23]Manuel C,Molles Jr.Ecology:Concepts&Applications(Fu-ture Edition)[M].New York:McGraw-Hill High Education Press,2008.
[24]张丽.水资源承载能力与生态需水量理论及应用[M].郑州:黄河水利出版社,2005.(ZHANG Li.Water Resources Car-rying Capacity and Ecological Water Demand Theory and Its Application[M].Zhengzhou:Yellow River Conservancy Press,2005.(in Chinese))
[25]水利部水利水电规划设计总院.中国抗旱战略研究[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2008.(The Ministry of Water Re-sources and Hydropower Planning and Design.The China Drought Strategic Research[M].Beijing:China WaterPower Press,2008.(in Chinese))
[26]陈守煜.水资源与防洪系统可变模糊集理论与方法[M].大连:大连理工大学出版社,2005.(CHEN Shou-yu.Theories and Methods of Variable Fuzzy Sets in Water Resources and Flood Control System[M].Dalian:Dalian University of Tech-nology Press,2005.(in Chinese))
[27]陈守煜.工程模糊集理论与应用[M].北京:国防工业出版社,1998.(CHEN Shou-yu.Engineering Fuzzy Set Theory and Application[M].Beijing:National Defence Industry Press,1998.(in Chinese))
[28]张中旺,江华军,李长安,等.南水北调中线工程核心水源区水安全模糊综合评价[J].南水北调与水利科技,2012,10(3):16-21.(ZHANG Zhong-wang,JIANG Hua-jun,LI Chang-an,et al.Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of Water Security in Central Water Source Area of Middle Route of South-to-North Water Tansfer Project[J].South-to-North Water Tansfers and Water Science&Technology,2012,10(3):16-21.(in Chinese))
[29]Saaty T L.The Analytic Hierarchy Process[M].New York:McGraw-Hill,1980.
[30]Fleig A K,Tallaksen L M,Hisdal H,et al.A global Evalua-tion of Streamflow Drought Characteristics[J].Hydrology and Earth.System Sciences,2006,10(4):535-552.
[31]陆桂华,闫桂霞,吴志勇,等.基于copula函数的区域干旱分析方法[J].水科学进展,2010,21(2):188-193.(LU Gui-hua,YAN Gui-xia,WU Zhi-yong et al.Regional Drought Analysis Approach Based on Copula Function[J].Advances in Water Science,2010,21(2):188-193.(in Chinese))
[32]徐春晓,袁潇晨,金菊良,等.基于Copula的区域干旱空间分布特征分析[J].资源科学,2011,33(12):2308-2313.(XU Chun-xiao,YUAN Xiao-chen,JIN Ju-liang,et al.Analysis of Character-istics of Spatial Distribution of Drought Based on Copula[J].Re-sources Science,2011,33(12):2308-2313.(in Chinese))
[33]Shiau,J.T.Fitting Drought Duration and Severity with Two-dimensional Copulas[J].Water Resources Management,2006,20:795-815.
[2]Wihite D.A.Integrated Climate Monitoring for Drought.Detec-tion.Drought:A Global Assessment[C].London&NewYork:Routledge,2000,145-158.
[3]闫桂霞.综合气象干旱指数及其应用研究[D].南京:河海大学,2009.(YAN Gui-xia.Study on the Integration MeteorologicalDrought Index and Its Application[D].Nanjing:Hohai Univer-sity,2009.(in Chinese))
[4]闫宝伟,郭生练,肖义,等.基于两变量联合分布的干旱特征分析[J].干旱区研究,2007,24(4):237-542.(YAN Bao-wei,GUO Sheng-lian,XIAO Yi,et al.Analysis on Drought Charac-teristics Based on Bivariate Joint Distribution[J].Arid ZoneResearch,2007,24(4):237-542.(in Chinese))
[5]Shiau J.T.,R.Modarres.Copula-based Drought Severity-duration-frequency Analysis in Iran[J].Meteorol.Appl.,2009,16:481-489.
[6]Wong G,Lambert MF,Leonard M,et al.Drought Analysis U-sing Trivariate Copulas Conditional on Climate States[J].Jour-nal of Hydrologic Enginecring,2010,15(2):129-141.
[7]Songbai Song,Vijay P.Singh.Meta-elliptical Copulas for DroughtFrequency Analysis of Periodic Hydrologic Data[J].Stoch En-viron Res Risk Assess,2010,24:425-444.
[8]Mark Svoboda,Doug LeComte,Mike Hayes,et al.The DroughtMonitor[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,2002,83(8):1181-1190.
[9]闫娜,杜继稳,李登科,等.干旱遥感监测方法研究应用进展[J].灾害学,2008,23(4):117-121.(YAN Na,DU Ji-wen,LI Deng-ke,et al.Progress in Research and Application of Drought Monitoring Method by Remote Sensing[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2008,23(4):117-121.
[10]Cody Knutson,Mike Hayes,Tom Phillips.How to Reduce Drought[M].Risk Preparedness and Mitigation Working Group.1998.
[11]David Thompson,Roy Powell.Exceptional Circumstances Provision in Australia-is There Too Much Emphasis on Drought[J].Agricultural Systems,1998,(57):7469-7488.
[12]陈晓楠.农业干早灾害风险管理理论与技术[D].西安:西安理工大学,2008.(CHEN Xiao-nan.Theory and Technology of Risk Management for Agricultural Drought Disaster[D].Xi′an:Xi′an University of Technology,2008.(in Chinese))
[13]王静爱,商彦蕊,苏筠,等.中国农业旱灾承灾体脆弱性诊断与区域可持续发展[J].北京师范大学学报(社会科学版),2005,17(3):130-136.(WANG Jing-ai,SHANG Yan-rui,SU Yun,et al.A Vulnerability Diagnosis of Agricultural Drought Disasters and Regional Sustainable Development in China[J].Journal of Beijing Normal University(Social Science Edi-tion),2005,17(3):130-136.(in Chinese))
[14]顾颖,倪深海,王会容.中国农业抗旱能力综合评价[J].水科学进展,2005,16(5):700-704.(GU Ying,NI Shen-hai,WANG Hui-rong.Comprehensive Evaluation on Ability of Coping with Agriculture Drought in China[J].Advances in Water Science,2005,16(5):700-704.(in Chinese))
[15]杨奇勇,冯发林,巢礼义.多目标决策的农业抗旱能力综合评价[J].灾害学,2007,22(2):5-8.(YANG Qi-yong,FENG Fa-lin,CHAO Li-yi.Comprehensive Evaluation on Ability of Coping with Agriculture Drought by Using Multi-objective Decision[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2007,22(2):5-8.(in Chinese))
[16]刘迎春,肖谦益.湖南农业抗旱能力综合评价[J].云南地理环境研究,2007,19(4):39-42,57.(LIU Ying-chun,XIAO Qian-yi.Comprehensive Evaluation on Ability of Coping with Agri-culture Drought in Yunnan[J].Yunnan Geographic Environ-ment Research,2007,19(4):39-42,57.(in Chinese))
[17]李树岩,刘荣华,成林,等.河南省农业综合抗旱能力分析与区划[J].生态学杂志,2009,28(8):1555-1560.(LI Shu-yan,LIU Rong-hua,CHENG Lin,et al.Comprehensive Agricul-tural Drought-resistant Capability of Henan Province:Analy-sis and Regionalization[J].Chinese Journal of Ecology,2009,28(8):1555-1560.(in Chinese))
[18]邓伟杰,金彦兆,李莉.甘肃省农业抗旱能力综合评价[J].人民长江,2010,41(12):105-107.(DENG Wei-Jie,JIN Yan-zhao,LI Li.Comprehensive Evaluation on Agriculture Drought-resistance Ability of Gansu Province[J].Yangtze River,2010,41(12):105-107.(in Chinese))
[19]科技部国家计委国家经贸灾害综合研究组.灾害.社会.减灾.发展:中国百年自然灾害态势与21世纪减灾策略分析[M].北京:气象出版社,2000.(State Planning Commission and the State Economic and Trade Ministry of Science and Technology of Disaster Research Group.Disaster.Society.Disaster Reduction.Development:The Hundred Years of Natural Disasters Trend Analysis and Mitigation Strategies in the21st Century in China[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2000.(in Chinese))
[20]史培军.灾害研究的理论与实践[J].南京大学学报(自然科学版),1991,(11):37-42.(SHI Pei-jun.Theory and Practice ofDisaster Study[J].Journal of Nanjing University(Natural Sciences),1991,(11):37-42.(in Chinese))
[21]长江流域规划办公室水文处.水利工程实用水文水利计算[M].北京:水利出版社,1980.(Bureau of Hydrology,Changjiang Water Resources Commission.Water Conservan-cy Engineering Hydrology and Hydraulic Calculation[M].Beijing:China WaterPower Press,1980.(in Chinese))
[22]林世镔.建筑物抗震能力研究[D].哈尔滨:中国地震局工程力学研究所,2010.(LIN Shi-bin.Study on Seismic Capacity of Buildings[D].Haerbin:Institute of Engineering Mechanics,China Earthquake Administration,2010.(in Chinese))
[23]Manuel C,Molles Jr.Ecology:Concepts&Applications(Fu-ture Edition)[M].New York:McGraw-Hill High Education Press,2008.
[24]张丽.水资源承载能力与生态需水量理论及应用[M].郑州:黄河水利出版社,2005.(ZHANG Li.Water Resources Car-rying Capacity and Ecological Water Demand Theory and Its Application[M].Zhengzhou:Yellow River Conservancy Press,2005.(in Chinese))
[25]水利部水利水电规划设计总院.中国抗旱战略研究[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2008.(The Ministry of Water Re-sources and Hydropower Planning and Design.The China Drought Strategic Research[M].Beijing:China WaterPower Press,2008.(in Chinese))
[26]陈守煜.水资源与防洪系统可变模糊集理论与方法[M].大连:大连理工大学出版社,2005.(CHEN Shou-yu.Theories and Methods of Variable Fuzzy Sets in Water Resources and Flood Control System[M].Dalian:Dalian University of Tech-nology Press,2005.(in Chinese))
[27]陈守煜.工程模糊集理论与应用[M].北京:国防工业出版社,1998.(CHEN Shou-yu.Engineering Fuzzy Set Theory and Application[M].Beijing:National Defence Industry Press,1998.(in Chinese))
[28]张中旺,江华军,李长安,等.南水北调中线工程核心水源区水安全模糊综合评价[J].南水北调与水利科技,2012,10(3):16-21.(ZHANG Zhong-wang,JIANG Hua-jun,LI Chang-an,et al.Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of Water Security in Central Water Source Area of Middle Route of South-to-North Water Tansfer Project[J].South-to-North Water Tansfers and Water Science&Technology,2012,10(3):16-21.(in Chinese))
[29]Saaty T L.The Analytic Hierarchy Process[M].New York:McGraw-Hill,1980.
[30]Fleig A K,Tallaksen L M,Hisdal H,et al.A global Evalua-tion of Streamflow Drought Characteristics[J].Hydrology and Earth.System Sciences,2006,10(4):535-552.
[31]陆桂华,闫桂霞,吴志勇,等.基于copula函数的区域干旱分析方法[J].水科学进展,2010,21(2):188-193.(LU Gui-hua,YAN Gui-xia,WU Zhi-yong et al.Regional Drought Analysis Approach Based on Copula Function[J].Advances in Water Science,2010,21(2):188-193.(in Chinese))
[32]徐春晓,袁潇晨,金菊良,等.基于Copula的区域干旱空间分布特征分析[J].资源科学,2011,33(12):2308-2313.(XU Chun-xiao,YUAN Xiao-chen,JIN Ju-liang,et al.Analysis of Character-istics of Spatial Distribution of Drought Based on Copula[J].Re-sources Science,2011,33(12):2308-2313.(in Chinese))
[33]Shiau,J.T.Fitting Drought Duration and Severity with Two-dimensional Copulas[J].Water Resources Management,2006,20:795-815.
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