基于固体潮的地震模拟预警系统的初步设计
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摘要
基于地震震中所受日月和行星引潮力及其参数的分布特征,提出一种行星地球地震模拟预警系统的模型及设计方案.该模型理论上可方便地提供任何地点的地震预警信息,并试图成为地震研究的辅助手段.采用NEIC提供的1973～2003年全球完整的4018次M≥6级地震数据,建成其测试版,并作初步检测,其中包括对1976年唐山地震和2004年印度洋地震的检验,以及模拟对美国旧金山地区所作10年(2006～2015年)6级以上的强震预测.
We propose a tentative design of an earthquake warning system,which based on the tidal forces reckoned from the sun,the moon and other major planets on an epicenter and their characters of parameter distribution of the forces.Theoretically this model may provide accurate predicting information conveniently for any given region.So it is possible to become an assistant method for earthquake studies.In this paper,we employ the integrated globe 4018 cases of M≥6 earthquakes from 1973 to 2003 obtained from National Earthquake Information Center of U.S.Geological Survey(NEIC)and launch a test version of Earthquake Warning System for further studies.Here tests for Tangshan Earthquake of China in 1976 and Northern Sumatra Earthquake in 2004 are given.We also predict the possibility of M≥6 earthquake for San Francisco of the United States within 10 years from 2006 to 2015.
We propose a tentative design of an earthquake warning system,which based on the tidal forces reckoned from the sun,the moon and other major planets on an epicenter and their characters of parameter distribution of the forces.Theoretically this model may provide accurate predicting information conveniently for any given region.So it is possible to become an assistant method for earthquake studies.In this paper,we employ the integrated globe 4018 cases of M≥6 earthquakes from 1973 to 2003 obtained from National Earthquake Information Center of U.S.Geological Survey(NEIC)and launch a test version of Earthquake Warning System for further studies.Here tests for Tangshan Earthquake of China in 1976 and Northern Sumatra Earthquake in 2004 are given.We also predict the possibility of M≥6 earthquake for San Francisco of the United States within 10 years from 2006 to 2015.
引文
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[2]Geller RJ,Jackson D D,Kagan Y Y,et al.Enhanced:earth-quakes cannot be predicted[J].Science,1997,275(5306):1616～1620.
[3]吴小平,黄雍,冒蔚,等.云南地震的潮汐应力触发机制及相关天体位置图像[J].地球物理学报,2005,48(3):574～583.Wu X P,Huang Y,Mao W,et al.Tidal stress triggering mechanismof earthquakes in Yunnan and related patterns of celestial body positions[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chi-nese),2005,48(3):574～583.
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[7]周挚,山秀明,任勇,等.固体潮的地震预测研究与地球动力学研究之分析比较[J].地球物理学进展,2005,20(1):118～122.Zhou Z,Shan X M,Pen Y,et al.Comparing the earthquake forecast of the earthtide withthe geodynamics of the earthtide[J].Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese),2005,20(1):118～122.
[8]李勇.用太阳系主要天体的位置建立特大地震的时间预测模型[J].天文学报,2003,44(4):363～368.
[9]李勇.太阳系天体位置、固体潮与地震预测[J].中国科学G辑,2005,35(3):327～336.Li Y.An examination of the correlation between earthquake,positions of solar system bodies and solid tide[J].Science in China(Series G),2006,49(3):367～376.
[10]高锡铭,殷志山,王威中,等.固体潮应力张量对地震的触发作用[J].地震学报,1981,3(3):264～275.Gao X M,Yin Z S,Wang WZ,et al.Triggering of earth-quakes by the tidal stress tensor[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica(in Chinese),1981,3(3):264～275.
[11]Ding Z Y,Jia J K,Wang R.The triggering of earthquakes by the tidal stress[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,1983,5(2):172～184,
[12]胡辉,王锐,李晓明.日月引潮力与地震[J].云南天文台台刊,2000,4:101～104.
[13]吴小平,冒蔚,黄雍.天文潮汐与地震[J].天文学进展,2001,19(1):45～54.
[14]陈荣华.引潮力对显著地震触发作用与大震关系及在雅江地震预报中的应用[J].地震,2003,23(1):53～56.
[15]Tamrazyan G P.Tide-formingforces and earthquakes[J].Ic-arus,1967,7:59～65.
[16]Tamrazyan G P.Earthquakes of nevada(USA)and the tidal forces[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,1968,73:6013～6018.
[17]Zhao J,Han Y B,Li Z A.Variation of lunar-solar tidal force and earthquakes tai wan lsland of China[J].Earth,Moon,and Planets,2000,88(3):123～129.
[18]Vidale J E,Agnew D C,Johnston MJ S,et al.Absence of earthquake correlation with Earthtides:Anindication of high preseismic fault stress rate[J].Journal of Geophysical Re-search-Solid Earth,1998,103:24567～24572.
[19]Kasahara J,Tides,Earthquakes,and Volcanoes[J].Sci-ence,2002,297:348～349.
[20]Tanaka S,Ohtake M,Sato H.Evidence for tidal triggering of earthquakes as revealed from statistical analysis of global data[J].Journal of Geophysical Research(Solid Earth),2002,107(B10),2211,doi:10.1029/2001JB001577
[21]Lockner D A,Beeler N M.Premonitory slip and tidal trigge-ring of earthquakes[J].J Geophys Res,1999,104:20133～20152.
[22]Beeler N M,Lockner D A.Why earthquakes correlate weak-ly with the solid Earth tides:Effects of periodic stress on the rate and probability of earthquake occurrence[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2003,108(B8):2391,doi:10.1029/2001JB001518
[23]Melchior P.The tides of the planet Earth(second edition)[M].Oxford:Pergamon Press,1983,10～34.
[24]方俊.固体潮[M].北京:科学出版社,1984,1～442.
[25]Doodson A T.The harmonic development of the tide genera-ting potential[J].Proceedings of the Royal Society,1971,Series A100:306～328.
[26]Cartwright D E,Tayler R J.Newcomputations of the tide-generating potential[J].The Geophysical Journal of the Roy-al Astronomical Scociety,1971,23(1):45～74.
[27]Cartwright D.E.,Edden A.C.,Corrected Tables of TidalHarmonics[J].The Geophysical Journal of the Royal Astro-nomical Scociety,1973,33(3):253～264.
[28]Buellesfeld F J.Ein beitrag zur harmonischen darstellung des gezeitenerzeugenden potentials[J].Deutsche Geodaetische Kommission,1985,314:3～103.
[29]Tamura Y A.Harmonic development of the tide-generating potential[J].Bulletin d'Informations Marees Terrestres,1987,99:6813～6855.
[30]门可佩.重大地震灾害链的时空有序性及其预测研究[J].地球物理学进展,2007,22(2):645～651.Men K P.Time-space order of severe earthquake disaster chain andits prediction[J].Progress in Geophysics(in Chi-nese),2007,22(2):645～651.
[31]赵娟,韩延本.天文因素与地震灾害关系研究的进展[J].地球物理学进展,2007,22(4):1386～1392.Zhao J,Han YB.Progress of researches on astronomical fac-tor and earthquake[J].Progress in Geophysics(in Chi-nese),2007,22(4):1386～1392.
[32]Perfettini H,Schmittbuhl J.Periodic loading on a creeping fault:Implications for tides[J].Geophysical Research Let-ters,2001,28(3):435～438.
[2]Geller RJ,Jackson D D,Kagan Y Y,et al.Enhanced:earth-quakes cannot be predicted[J].Science,1997,275(5306):1616～1620.
[3]吴小平,黄雍,冒蔚,等.云南地震的潮汐应力触发机制及相关天体位置图像[J].地球物理学报,2005,48(3):574～583.Wu X P,Huang Y,Mao W,et al.Tidal stress triggering mechanismof earthquakes in Yunnan and related patterns of celestial body positions[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chi-nese),2005,48(3):574～583.
[4]Kossobokov V G,Romashkova L L,Keilis-Borok VI,et al.Testing earthquake prediction algorithms:statistically signifi-cant advance prediction of the largest earthquakes in the Cir-cum-Pacific,1992～1997[J].Physics of the Earth and Plane-tary Interiors,1999,111:187～196.
[5]罗葆荣.云南天文地震学的研究进展[J].云南天文台台刊,2002,(1):47～54.
[6]任振球.突发性特大自然灾害预测研究的新途径、新方法[J].地学前缘,2003,10(2):317～318.
[7]周挚,山秀明,任勇,等.固体潮的地震预测研究与地球动力学研究之分析比较[J].地球物理学进展,2005,20(1):118～122.Zhou Z,Shan X M,Pen Y,et al.Comparing the earthquake forecast of the earthtide withthe geodynamics of the earthtide[J].Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese),2005,20(1):118～122.
[8]李勇.用太阳系主要天体的位置建立特大地震的时间预测模型[J].天文学报,2003,44(4):363～368.
[9]李勇.太阳系天体位置、固体潮与地震预测[J].中国科学G辑,2005,35(3):327～336.Li Y.An examination of the correlation between earthquake,positions of solar system bodies and solid tide[J].Science in China(Series G),2006,49(3):367～376.
[10]高锡铭,殷志山,王威中,等.固体潮应力张量对地震的触发作用[J].地震学报,1981,3(3):264～275.Gao X M,Yin Z S,Wang WZ,et al.Triggering of earth-quakes by the tidal stress tensor[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica(in Chinese),1981,3(3):264～275.
[11]Ding Z Y,Jia J K,Wang R.The triggering of earthquakes by the tidal stress[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,1983,5(2):172～184,
[12]胡辉,王锐,李晓明.日月引潮力与地震[J].云南天文台台刊,2000,4:101～104.
[13]吴小平,冒蔚,黄雍.天文潮汐与地震[J].天文学进展,2001,19(1):45～54.
[14]陈荣华.引潮力对显著地震触发作用与大震关系及在雅江地震预报中的应用[J].地震,2003,23(1):53～56.
[15]Tamrazyan G P.Tide-formingforces and earthquakes[J].Ic-arus,1967,7:59～65.
[16]Tamrazyan G P.Earthquakes of nevada(USA)and the tidal forces[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,1968,73:6013～6018.
[17]Zhao J,Han Y B,Li Z A.Variation of lunar-solar tidal force and earthquakes tai wan lsland of China[J].Earth,Moon,and Planets,2000,88(3):123～129.
[18]Vidale J E,Agnew D C,Johnston MJ S,et al.Absence of earthquake correlation with Earthtides:Anindication of high preseismic fault stress rate[J].Journal of Geophysical Re-search-Solid Earth,1998,103:24567～24572.
[19]Kasahara J,Tides,Earthquakes,and Volcanoes[J].Sci-ence,2002,297:348～349.
[20]Tanaka S,Ohtake M,Sato H.Evidence for tidal triggering of earthquakes as revealed from statistical analysis of global data[J].Journal of Geophysical Research(Solid Earth),2002,107(B10),2211,doi:10.1029/2001JB001577
[21]Lockner D A,Beeler N M.Premonitory slip and tidal trigge-ring of earthquakes[J].J Geophys Res,1999,104:20133～20152.
[22]Beeler N M,Lockner D A.Why earthquakes correlate weak-ly with the solid Earth tides:Effects of periodic stress on the rate and probability of earthquake occurrence[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2003,108(B8):2391,doi:10.1029/2001JB001518
[23]Melchior P.The tides of the planet Earth(second edition)[M].Oxford:Pergamon Press,1983,10～34.
[24]方俊.固体潮[M].北京:科学出版社,1984,1～442.
[25]Doodson A T.The harmonic development of the tide genera-ting potential[J].Proceedings of the Royal Society,1971,Series A100:306～328.
[26]Cartwright D E,Tayler R J.Newcomputations of the tide-generating potential[J].The Geophysical Journal of the Roy-al Astronomical Scociety,1971,23(1):45～74.
[27]Cartwright D.E.,Edden A.C.,Corrected Tables of TidalHarmonics[J].The Geophysical Journal of the Royal Astro-nomical Scociety,1973,33(3):253～264.
[28]Buellesfeld F J.Ein beitrag zur harmonischen darstellung des gezeitenerzeugenden potentials[J].Deutsche Geodaetische Kommission,1985,314:3～103.
[29]Tamura Y A.Harmonic development of the tide-generating potential[J].Bulletin d'Informations Marees Terrestres,1987,99:6813～6855.
[30]门可佩.重大地震灾害链的时空有序性及其预测研究[J].地球物理学进展,2007,22(2):645～651.Men K P.Time-space order of severe earthquake disaster chain andits prediction[J].Progress in Geophysics(in Chi-nese),2007,22(2):645～651.
[31]赵娟,韩延本.天文因素与地震灾害关系研究的进展[J].地球物理学进展,2007,22(4):1386～1392.Zhao J,Han YB.Progress of researches on astronomical fac-tor and earthquake[J].Progress in Geophysics(in Chi-nese),2007,22(4):1386～1392.
[32]Perfettini H,Schmittbuhl J.Periodic loading on a creeping fault:Implications for tides[J].Geophysical Research Let-ters,2001,28(3):435～438.
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