突发性灾害中的公众风险感知与应急管理——以5·12汶川地震为例
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摘要
突发性灾害对公众的生命财产安全造成了严重威胁,也给应急管理工作带来了严峻的挑战。灾害所导致的巨大风险感知是引发人们的一系列心理和行为反应的核心中介变量,是应急风险管理应考虑的中心问题。本文以汶川地震为例,基于重灾区的实际调研数据,分析重灾区公众在地震中的风险感知特征及其影响因素,构建了一个完整的风险感知理论模型,有利于更好地理解风险感知对人们的心理健康和应对行为的作用机理,并为政府风险管理机制构建和应急反应策略制定提供心理和行为方面的理论与现实依据。
An unexpected disaster will not only seriously threaten the safety of the lives and the property of the public, but also bring grave challenges to the emergency management. The perception of formidable risks that is resulted from disasters is the kernel medium variable that triggers off a series of reactions of psychology and action, and this perception is the key problem that should be considered in the management of emergency measures. Taking the Wenchuan Earthquake as our case to be studied, and based on the data from our actual investigation of the worst-hit regions, we have, in this article, analyzed the characteristics and influencing elements of the public perception of risks in the worst-hit regions in this earthquake, and constructed a comprehensive theoretic model for the perception of risks, a model that has contributes to the better understanding of the risk perceptions and their impacts on people’s health status and their response and has afforded a theoretic and practical foundation in psychology and behavior for the formation of governments’ management of emergency measures and policies for responses to emergencies.
An unexpected disaster will not only seriously threaten the safety of the lives and the property of the public, but also bring grave challenges to the emergency management. The perception of formidable risks that is resulted from disasters is the kernel medium variable that triggers off a series of reactions of psychology and action, and this perception is the key problem that should be considered in the management of emergency measures. Taking the Wenchuan Earthquake as our case to be studied, and based on the data from our actual investigation of the worst-hit regions, we have, in this article, analyzed the characteristics and influencing elements of the public perception of risks in the worst-hit regions in this earthquake, and constructed a comprehensive theoretic model for the perception of risks, a model that has contributes to the better understanding of the risk perceptions and their impacts on people’s health status and their response and has afforded a theoretic and practical foundation in psychology and behavior for the formation of governments’ management of emergency measures and policies for responses to emergencies.
引文
(1)贾建民、李华强、范春梅、郝辽钢、王顺洪、解洪:《汶川地震重灾区与非重灾区民众风险感知对比分析》,《管理评论》,2008年第12期。
(2)时勘、范红霞、贾建民、李文东、宋照礼、高晶、陈雪峰、陆佳芳、胡卫鹏:《我国公众对SARS信息的风险感知及心理行为》,《心理学报》,2003年第4期。
(3)时勘、陆佳芳、范红霞、贾建民、宋照礼、李文东、高晶、陈雪峰、胡卫鹏:《SARS危机中17城市公众的理性特征及心理行为预测模型》,《科学通报》,2003年第13期。
(4)Aldwin,C.M.and T.A.Revenson,1987,“Does Coping Help?A Reexamination of the Relation Between Coping and Mental Health”,Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,53,pp.337～348.
(5)Amirkhan,J.H.,1990,“A Factor Analytically Derived Measure of Coping:The Coping Strategy Indicator”,Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,59,pp.1066～1075.
(6)Bagozzi,R.P.and Y.Yi,1988,“On the Evaluation of Structural Equation Models”,Journal of Academy of Marketing Science,16(1),pp.74～94.
(7)Billings,A.G.and R.H.Moos,1984,“Coping,Stress,and Social Resources Among Adults With Unipolar Depression”,Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,46(4),pp.877～891.
(8)Browne,M.W.and R.Cudeck,1989,“Single Sample Cross-Validation Indices for Covariance Structures”,Multivariate Behavioral Research,24(4),pp.445～455.
(9)Cho,J.and J.Lee,2006,“An Integrated Model of Risk and Risk-Reducing Strategies”,Journal of Business Research,59,pp.112～120.
(10)Christman,N.J.,E.A.McConnell,C.Pfeiffer,K.K.Webster,M.Schmitt and J.Ries,1988,“Uncertainty,Coping,and Distress Following Myocardial Infarction:Transition from Hospital to Home”,Research Nursing Health,11,pp.71～82.
(11)Compas,B.E.,J.K.Connor,H.Saltzman,A.H.Thom-sen and M.E.Wadsworth,2001,“Coping With Stress During Childhood and Adolescence:Problems,Progress,and Potential in Theory and Research”,Psychological Bulletin,127(1),pp.87～127.
(12)Cox,D.F.,1967,Risk Taking and Information Han-dling in Consumer Behavior,Cambridge,MA’Harvard University Press.
(13)Erdem,T.and J.Swait,2004,“Brand Credibility,Brand Consideration,and Choice”,Journal of Consumer Research,31(1),pp.191～198.
(14)Fischhoff,B.,P.Slovic,S.Lichtenstein,S.?Read and B.Combs,1978,“How Safe is Safe Enough?A Psychometric Study of Attitudes Towards Technological Risks and Benefits”,Policy Sciences,9(2),pp.127～152.
(15)Folkman,S.and R.S.Lazarus,1985,“If It Changes It Must Be a Process:Study of Emotion and Coping during Three Stages of a College Examination”,Journal of Personality and So-cial Psychology,48,pp.150～170.
(16)Forsythe,S.M.and B.Shi,2003,“Consumer Patronage and Risk Perceptions in Internet Shopping”,Journal of Business Research,56(11),pp.867～875.
(17)Frewer,L.J.,C.Howard,D.Hedderley and R.Shep-herd,1998,“Methodological Approaches to Assessing Risk Per-ceptions Associated with Food-Related Hazards”,Risk Analysis,18(1),pp.95～102.
(18)Goldberg,D.,1992,“General Health Questionnaire(GHQ-12)”,Windsor,UK,National Foundation for Educational Research-Nelson.
(19)Holahan,C.J.and R.H.Moos,1987,“Personal and Contextual Determinants of Coping Strategies”,Journal of Per-sonality and Social Psychology,52,pp.946～955.
(20)Lazarus,R.S.,1993,“Coping Theory and Research:Past,Present,and Future”,Psychosomatic Medicine,55(3),pp.234-247.
(21)Lazarus,R.S.and S.Folkman,1984,“Stress,Appraisal and Coping”,New York:Springer.
(22)Lofstedt,R.E.and O.Renn,1997,“The Brent Spar Controversy:Analysis of Risk Communication Gone Wrong”,Risk Analysis,17(2),pp.131～136.
(23)Lyne,K.and D.A.Roger,2000,“Psychometric Re-as-sessment of the COPE Questionnaire”,Personality and Individual Differences,29,pp.321～335.
(24)Mishel,M.H.,1984,“Perceived Uncertainty and Stress in Illness”,Nursing Health,7(3),pp.163～171.
(25)Moos,R.H.,1993,“Coping Responses Inventory:Adult Form:Professional Manual”,Psychological Assessment Re-sources.
(26)Otway,H.J.and D.V.Winterfeldt,1982,“Beyond Ac-ceptable Risk:On the Social Acceptability of Technologies”,Pol-icy Sciences,14(3),pp.247～256.
(27)Penley,J.A.,J.Tomaka and J.S.Wiebe,2002,“The Association of Coping To Physical and Psychological Health Out-comes:A Meta-Analytic Review”,Journal of Behavioral Medicine,25(6),pp.551～603.
(28)Powell,D.,1996,An Introduction to Risk Communica-tion and the Perception of Risk,University of Guelph.
(29)Rick,J.and A.Guppy,1994,“Coping Strategies and Mental Health in White Collar Public Sector Employees”,Euro-pean Journal of Work and Organizational Psychology,4(2),pp.121～137.
(30)Slovic,P.and S.Lichtenstein,1968,“Relative Impor-tance of Probabilities and Payoffs in Risk Taking”,Journal of Experimental Psychology Monographs,78(3),pp.1～18.
(31)Slovic,P.,S.Lichtenstein and B.Fischhoff,1980,“Facts and Fears:Understanding Perceived Risk”,In R.C.Schwing&W.A.Albers(Eds.),Societal risk assessment:How Safe is safe enough?New York:Plenum.
(32)Slovic,P.,1987,“Perception of Risk”,Science,236,pp.280～285.
(33)Slovic,P.,2000,The Perception of Risk,London:Earthscan.
(34)Taylor,J.W.,1974,“The Role of Risk in Consumer Behavior”,Journal of Marketing,38,pp.54～60.
(35)Webster,K.K.and N.J.Christman,1988,“Perceived Uncertainty and Coping Post Myocardial Infarction”,Western journal of Nursing Research,10(4),pp.384～400.
(36)Wineman,N.M.,1990,“Adaptation to Multiple Sclero-sis:The Role of Social Support,Function Disability and Per-ceived Uncertainty”,Nursing Research,39(5),pp.294～299.
(37)Yates,J.F.and E.R.Stone,1992,“Risk Taking Be-havior”,Chichester:John Wiley and Sons Ltd,pp.1～25.
(2)时勘、范红霞、贾建民、李文东、宋照礼、高晶、陈雪峰、陆佳芳、胡卫鹏:《我国公众对SARS信息的风险感知及心理行为》,《心理学报》,2003年第4期。
(3)时勘、陆佳芳、范红霞、贾建民、宋照礼、李文东、高晶、陈雪峰、胡卫鹏:《SARS危机中17城市公众的理性特征及心理行为预测模型》,《科学通报》,2003年第13期。
(4)Aldwin,C.M.and T.A.Revenson,1987,“Does Coping Help?A Reexamination of the Relation Between Coping and Mental Health”,Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,53,pp.337～348.
(5)Amirkhan,J.H.,1990,“A Factor Analytically Derived Measure of Coping:The Coping Strategy Indicator”,Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,59,pp.1066～1075.
(6)Bagozzi,R.P.and Y.Yi,1988,“On the Evaluation of Structural Equation Models”,Journal of Academy of Marketing Science,16(1),pp.74～94.
(7)Billings,A.G.and R.H.Moos,1984,“Coping,Stress,and Social Resources Among Adults With Unipolar Depression”,Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,46(4),pp.877～891.
(8)Browne,M.W.and R.Cudeck,1989,“Single Sample Cross-Validation Indices for Covariance Structures”,Multivariate Behavioral Research,24(4),pp.445～455.
(9)Cho,J.and J.Lee,2006,“An Integrated Model of Risk and Risk-Reducing Strategies”,Journal of Business Research,59,pp.112～120.
(10)Christman,N.J.,E.A.McConnell,C.Pfeiffer,K.K.Webster,M.Schmitt and J.Ries,1988,“Uncertainty,Coping,and Distress Following Myocardial Infarction:Transition from Hospital to Home”,Research Nursing Health,11,pp.71～82.
(11)Compas,B.E.,J.K.Connor,H.Saltzman,A.H.Thom-sen and M.E.Wadsworth,2001,“Coping With Stress During Childhood and Adolescence:Problems,Progress,and Potential in Theory and Research”,Psychological Bulletin,127(1),pp.87～127.
(12)Cox,D.F.,1967,Risk Taking and Information Han-dling in Consumer Behavior,Cambridge,MA’Harvard University Press.
(13)Erdem,T.and J.Swait,2004,“Brand Credibility,Brand Consideration,and Choice”,Journal of Consumer Research,31(1),pp.191～198.
(14)Fischhoff,B.,P.Slovic,S.Lichtenstein,S.?Read and B.Combs,1978,“How Safe is Safe Enough?A Psychometric Study of Attitudes Towards Technological Risks and Benefits”,Policy Sciences,9(2),pp.127～152.
(15)Folkman,S.and R.S.Lazarus,1985,“If It Changes It Must Be a Process:Study of Emotion and Coping during Three Stages of a College Examination”,Journal of Personality and So-cial Psychology,48,pp.150～170.
(16)Forsythe,S.M.and B.Shi,2003,“Consumer Patronage and Risk Perceptions in Internet Shopping”,Journal of Business Research,56(11),pp.867～875.
(17)Frewer,L.J.,C.Howard,D.Hedderley and R.Shep-herd,1998,“Methodological Approaches to Assessing Risk Per-ceptions Associated with Food-Related Hazards”,Risk Analysis,18(1),pp.95～102.
(18)Goldberg,D.,1992,“General Health Questionnaire(GHQ-12)”,Windsor,UK,National Foundation for Educational Research-Nelson.
(19)Holahan,C.J.and R.H.Moos,1987,“Personal and Contextual Determinants of Coping Strategies”,Journal of Per-sonality and Social Psychology,52,pp.946～955.
(20)Lazarus,R.S.,1993,“Coping Theory and Research:Past,Present,and Future”,Psychosomatic Medicine,55(3),pp.234-247.
(21)Lazarus,R.S.and S.Folkman,1984,“Stress,Appraisal and Coping”,New York:Springer.
(22)Lofstedt,R.E.and O.Renn,1997,“The Brent Spar Controversy:Analysis of Risk Communication Gone Wrong”,Risk Analysis,17(2),pp.131～136.
(23)Lyne,K.and D.A.Roger,2000,“Psychometric Re-as-sessment of the COPE Questionnaire”,Personality and Individual Differences,29,pp.321～335.
(24)Mishel,M.H.,1984,“Perceived Uncertainty and Stress in Illness”,Nursing Health,7(3),pp.163～171.
(25)Moos,R.H.,1993,“Coping Responses Inventory:Adult Form:Professional Manual”,Psychological Assessment Re-sources.
(26)Otway,H.J.and D.V.Winterfeldt,1982,“Beyond Ac-ceptable Risk:On the Social Acceptability of Technologies”,Pol-icy Sciences,14(3),pp.247～256.
(27)Penley,J.A.,J.Tomaka and J.S.Wiebe,2002,“The Association of Coping To Physical and Psychological Health Out-comes:A Meta-Analytic Review”,Journal of Behavioral Medicine,25(6),pp.551～603.
(28)Powell,D.,1996,An Introduction to Risk Communica-tion and the Perception of Risk,University of Guelph.
(29)Rick,J.and A.Guppy,1994,“Coping Strategies and Mental Health in White Collar Public Sector Employees”,Euro-pean Journal of Work and Organizational Psychology,4(2),pp.121～137.
(30)Slovic,P.and S.Lichtenstein,1968,“Relative Impor-tance of Probabilities and Payoffs in Risk Taking”,Journal of Experimental Psychology Monographs,78(3),pp.1～18.
(31)Slovic,P.,S.Lichtenstein and B.Fischhoff,1980,“Facts and Fears:Understanding Perceived Risk”,In R.C.Schwing&W.A.Albers(Eds.),Societal risk assessment:How Safe is safe enough?New York:Plenum.
(32)Slovic,P.,1987,“Perception of Risk”,Science,236,pp.280～285.
(33)Slovic,P.,2000,The Perception of Risk,London:Earthscan.
(34)Taylor,J.W.,1974,“The Role of Risk in Consumer Behavior”,Journal of Marketing,38,pp.54～60.
(35)Webster,K.K.and N.J.Christman,1988,“Perceived Uncertainty and Coping Post Myocardial Infarction”,Western journal of Nursing Research,10(4),pp.384～400.
(36)Wineman,N.M.,1990,“Adaptation to Multiple Sclero-sis:The Role of Social Support,Function Disability and Per-ceived Uncertainty”,Nursing Research,39(5),pp.294～299.
(37)Yates,J.F.and E.R.Stone,1992,“Risk Taking Be-havior”,Chichester:John Wiley and Sons Ltd,pp.1～25.
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