基于ARIO模型的汶川地震灾后恢复重建期模拟
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摘要
基于区域投入产出模型(ARIO),以一个月为时间步长,模拟了汶川地震后四川省各部门产出和需求随重建进程的变化过程。模拟结果表明:汶川地震的完全恢复重建大致需要近9年的时间,灾后36个月时,四川省的当地总产出能力将超过灾前水平。在重建模拟的基础上,评估了灾后实施不同风险管理策略的潜在效益,若最大生产能力在灾后3个月内能够加速达到灾前的150%,则与无加速重建相比,恢复重建期至少可以缩短3年半,证明了灾后加大人力和物力投入对于缩短恢复重建期的作用。提出的重建期模拟方法可以为缩短重建期、合理分配抗灾救灾资源的灾害管理提供技术支撑。
Based on adaptive regional input-output(ARIO) model,and taking 1 month as calculating step,this study simulates the reconstruction process after the Wenchuan earthquake.Results show that the complete reconstruction period requires about 9 years,and the total production recovery requires 36 months.Based on the simulation of reconstruction,this paper also evaluated the potential profit for different risk management strategies,e.g.,if post-earthquake production capacity could be speeded up to 150% of the pre-earthquake in 3 months,the reconstruction period could be shortened for 3 years and a half.This result shows the importance of manpower and materials investment to the shortening of reconstruction period.The ARIO model is helpful in managing post-earthquake reconstruction,shortening recovery and reconstruction period and reasonably distributing disaster relief resources.
Based on adaptive regional input-output(ARIO) model,and taking 1 month as calculating step,this study simulates the reconstruction process after the Wenchuan earthquake.Results show that the complete reconstruction period requires about 9 years,and the total production recovery requires 36 months.Based on the simulation of reconstruction,this paper also evaluated the potential profit for different risk management strategies,e.g.,if post-earthquake production capacity could be speeded up to 150% of the pre-earthquake in 3 months,the reconstruction period could be shortened for 3 years and a half.This result shows the importance of manpower and materials investment to the shortening of reconstruction period.The ARIO model is helpful in managing post-earthquake reconstruction,shortening recovery and reconstruction period and reasonably distributing disaster relief resources.
引文
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[19]徐娟.灾害经济学中的减灾投入与成本问题[J].灾害学,2006,21(2):103-105.XU Juan.Cost and Investment in hazard prevention and reduction in the sight of disaster economics[J].Journal of catastrophology,2006,21(2):103-105.(in Chinese)
[20]徐嵩龄.灾害经济损失概念及产业关联型间接经济损失计量[J].自然灾害学报,1998,7(4):7-15.XU Songling.The concept of economic loss by disasters and measuring the sector-related-type indirect economic loss[J].Journal of NaturalDisaster,1998,7(4):7-15.(in Chinese)
[21]张显东,梅广清.二要素多部门CGE模型的灾害经济研究[J].自然灾害学报,1999,8(1):9-15.ZHANG Xiandong,MEI Guangqing.The CGE model on economic impact of natural disaster[J].Journal of Natural Disaster,1999,8(1):9-15.(in Chinese)
[22]赵直,尹之潜.震后企业停产减产损失估计方法的研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,2001,21(1):152-154.ZHAO Zhi,YIN Zhiqian.Study on estimation of post-earthquake loss due to stop and drop in production of enterprises[J].Earthquake Engi-neering and Earthquake Vibration,2001 21(1):152-154.(in Chinese)
[23]周诗梦.从唐山地震到汶川地震看中国进步[J].大江周刊.焦点纪实,2008,20(6):36-37.ZHOU Shimeng.See China progress from Tangshan earthquake to Wenchuan earthquake[J].Dajiang Weekly Publication,Record the Facts Fo-cus,2008,20(6):36-37.(in Chinese)
[2]Cochrane H C,Hass J E,Bowden M J,et al.Social Science Perspectives on the Coming San Francisco Earthquake[M]//University of Colorado Nat-ural Hazards Research Paper No.25.Boulder,CO:University of Colorado,1974:1-44.
[3]Shinozuka M,Rose A,Eguchi R.Engineering and Socioeconomic Analysis of a New Madrid Earthquake[M].Buffalo,NY:National Center for Earth-quake Engineering Research,1997:45-69.
[4]FEMA(Federal Emergency Management Agency).HAZUS 99 Estimated Annualized Losses for the United States[R].Publication No.366,FederalEmergency Management Agency,Washington,DC,2001.
[5]Haimes Y,Horowitz B,Lambert J,et al.Inoperability input-output model for interdependent infrastructure sectors.I:theory and methodology[J].Journal of Infrastructure Systems,2005,11:67-79.
[6]Hallegatte S.An adaptive regional input-output model and its application to the assessment of the economic cost of Katrina[J].Risk Analysis,2008,28(3):779-799.
[7]Percoco M.A note on the inoperability input-output model[J].Risk Analysis,2006,26:589-594.
[8]Okuyama Y,Chang S.Modeling the Spatial Economic Impacts of Natural Hazards[M].Heidelberg:Springer,2004:119-142
[9]Rose A,Liao S Y.Modeling regional economic resilience to disasters:a computable general equilibrium analysis of water service disruptions[J].Journal of Regional Science,2005,45(1):75-112.
[10]Tsuchiya S,Tatano H,Okada N.Economic loss assessment due to railroad and highway disruptions[J].Economic Systems Research,2007,19(2):147-162.
[11]都吉夔,张勤,宋立军,等.四川汶川8.0级地震间接经济损失评估方法[J].灾害学,2008,23(4):130-133.DU Jikui,ZHANG Qin,SONG Lijun,et al.Assessment method of indirect economic loss from Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake[J].Journal ofCatastrophology,2008,23(4):130-133.(in Chinese)
[12]国家减灾委员会-科学技术部抗震救灾专家组.汶川地震灾害综合分析与评估[R].北京:科学出版社,2008:127-142.National Committee for Disaster Reduction,Ministry of Science and Technology of Disaster Relief Expert Group.Integrated Analysis and Assess-ment of Earthquake Disaster in Wenchuan[R].Beijing:Science Press,2008:127-142.(in Chinese)
[13]国务院抗震救灾总指挥部灾后重建规划组.汶川地震灾后恢复重建总体规划[EB/OL].(2008-09-23)[2012-02-28].http://www.gov.cn/zwgk/2008-09/23/content_1103686.htm.Earthquake Relief General Headquarters of Post-disaster Reconstruction Planning Group of the State Council.Restoration and ReconstructionPlanning of Wenchuan Earthquake[EB/OL].(2008-09-23)[2012-02-28].http://www.gov.cn/zwgk/2008-09/23/content_1103686.htm.(in Chinese)
[14]环球时报.中国人民解放军在赞誉中撤出震灾区[EB/OL].(2008-07-24)[2012-02-28].http://news.xinhuanet.com/mil/2008-07/24Global Times.Chinese people’s liberation army withdrawal from the earthquake-hit area in praise[EB/OL].(2008-07-24)[2012-02-28].http://news.xinhuanet.com/mil/2008-07/24(in Chinese)
[15]林均岐,钟江荣,申选召.地震企业停减产损失评估[J].世界地震工程,2006,22(4):18-21.LIN Junqi,ZHONG Jiangrong,SHEN Xuanzhao.Assessment of earthquake induced production stop and reduction loss[J].World Earthquake En-gineering,2006,22(4):18-21.(in Chinese)
[16]林均岐,钟江荣.区域地震间接经济损失评估[J].自然灾害学报,2007,16(4):139-142.LIN Junqi,ZHONG Jiangrong.Assessment of seismic indirect economic loss in regions[J].Journal of Natural Disaster,2007,16(4):139-142.(in Chinese)
[17]路琮,魏一鸣,范英,等.灾害对国民经济影响的定量分析模型及其应用[J].自然灾害学报,2002,11(3):15-20.LU Zong,WEI Yiming,FAN Ying,et al.Quantitatively analytic model for the impact of natural disaster on national economy[J].Journal of Natu-ral Disaster,2002,11(3):15-20.(in Chinese)
[18]吴吉东,李宁,温玉婷,等.自然灾害的影响及间接经济损失评估方法[J].地理科学进展,2009,28(6):877-885.WU Jidong,LI Ning,WEN Yiting,et al.Economic impact of natural disaster and indirect economic loss estimation methods[J].Progress of Geog-raphy,2009,28(6):877-885.(in Chinese)
[19]徐娟.灾害经济学中的减灾投入与成本问题[J].灾害学,2006,21(2):103-105.XU Juan.Cost and Investment in hazard prevention and reduction in the sight of disaster economics[J].Journal of catastrophology,2006,21(2):103-105.(in Chinese)
[20]徐嵩龄.灾害经济损失概念及产业关联型间接经济损失计量[J].自然灾害学报,1998,7(4):7-15.XU Songling.The concept of economic loss by disasters and measuring the sector-related-type indirect economic loss[J].Journal of NaturalDisaster,1998,7(4):7-15.(in Chinese)
[21]张显东,梅广清.二要素多部门CGE模型的灾害经济研究[J].自然灾害学报,1999,8(1):9-15.ZHANG Xiandong,MEI Guangqing.The CGE model on economic impact of natural disaster[J].Journal of Natural Disaster,1999,8(1):9-15.(in Chinese)
[22]赵直,尹之潜.震后企业停产减产损失估计方法的研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,2001,21(1):152-154.ZHAO Zhi,YIN Zhiqian.Study on estimation of post-earthquake loss due to stop and drop in production of enterprises[J].Earthquake Engi-neering and Earthquake Vibration,2001 21(1):152-154.(in Chinese)
[23]周诗梦.从唐山地震到汶川地震看中国进步[J].大江周刊.焦点纪实,2008,20(6):36-37.ZHOU Shimeng.See China progress from Tangshan earthquake to Wenchuan earthquake[J].Dajiang Weekly Publication,Record the Facts Fo-cus,2008,20(6):36-37.(in Chinese)
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