基于云模型的隧道塌方风险等级评价
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摘要
针对造成隧道塌方事故影响因子的复杂性和模糊性,基于云模型理论,选取影响隧道塌方风险的10项因子,建立了4个风险等级的隧道塌方风险评价模型。根据云模型的数字特征计算规则计算各因子隶属于不同风险等级的云模型数字特征,结合正向正态云发生器和各项评价因子的权重,获得云模型的综合确定度,最终由最大综合确定度确定隧道塌方风险等级。工程实例样本应用中,构建的隧道塌方风险评价云模型和模糊综合评价模型的评价结果相符,同时与相应的设计施工方案和施工安全风险评估报告的结果相吻合,表明该模型的可行性与有效性,体现出云模型中定性语言描述和定量数值间不确定转换的优点,且结果便于工程应用。
A risk evaluation model of tunnel collapse with four risk grades based on cloud model theory was established aiming at the complexity and fuzziness of affecting factors in tunnel collapse accidents,as ten factors influencing the risk of tunnel collapse were chosen. The numerical characteristics of cloud model for each evaluation factors on different risk grades of tunnel collapse were calculated based on the computation rules on numerical characteristics of cloud model. Considering the forward normal cloud generator and the weights of each factors,the comprehensive degrees of certainty were obtained,and the risk grade of tunnel collapse was finally specified by the maximum comprehensive degree of certainty. In the sample application of engineering case,the evaluation results of tunnel collapse risk by the cloud model was consistent with that by the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model,and it tallied with the results of corresponding design and construction scheme and risk evaluation report of con- struction safety,which indicated the feasibility and effectiveness of the cloud model. The cloud model on risk evaluation of tunnel collapse has the advantage to achieve uncertainty transformation between qualitative language description and quantitative numerical value,and the results of cloud model can be used easily in engineering ap- plication.
A risk evaluation model of tunnel collapse with four risk grades based on cloud model theory was established aiming at the complexity and fuzziness of affecting factors in tunnel collapse accidents,as ten factors influencing the risk of tunnel collapse were chosen. The numerical characteristics of cloud model for each evaluation factors on different risk grades of tunnel collapse were calculated based on the computation rules on numerical characteristics of cloud model. Considering the forward normal cloud generator and the weights of each factors,the comprehensive degrees of certainty were obtained,and the risk grade of tunnel collapse was finally specified by the maximum comprehensive degree of certainty. In the sample application of engineering case,the evaluation results of tunnel collapse risk by the cloud model was consistent with that by the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model,and it tallied with the results of corresponding design and construction scheme and risk evaluation report of con- struction safety,which indicated the feasibility and effectiveness of the cloud model. The cloud model on risk evaluation of tunnel collapse has the advantage to achieve uncertainty transformation between qualitative language description and quantitative numerical value,and the results of cloud model can be used easily in engineering ap- plication.
引文
[1]苏永华,刘科伟,张进华.基于粗糙集重心理论的公路隧道塌方风险分析[J].湖南大学学报(自然科学版),2013,40(1):21-26SU Yong-hua,LIU Ke-wei1,ZHANG Jin-hua.Fuzzy evaluation of collspse incidents in highway tunnel construction based on rough set and barycenter theory[J].Journal of Hunan University(Natural Sciences),2013,40(1):21-26
[2]何美丽,刘霁,刘浪,等.隧道坍方风险评价的未确知测度模型及工程应用[J].中南大学学报(自然科学版),2012,43(9):3665-3671HE Mei-li,LIU Ji,LIU Lang,et al.Unascertained measure model of assessment tunnel collapse risk and its application in engineering[J].Journal of Central South University(Science and Technology),2012,43(9):3665-3671
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[5]李健,汪明武,徐鹏,等.基于云模型的围岩稳定性分类[J].岩土工程学报,2014,36(1):83-87LI Jian,WANG Ming-wu,XU Peng,et al.Classification of stability of surrounding rock using cloud model[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2014,36(1):83-87
[6]张军,陈征宙,刘登峰.基于云模型的岩质边坡稳定性评估研究[J].水文地质工程地质,2014,41(6):44-50ZHANG Jun,CHEN Zheng-zhou,LIU Deng-feng.Stability evaluation of a rock slope based on the cloud model[J].Hydrogeology&Engineering Geology,2014,41(6):44-50
[7]贾兴利,许金良.基于云模型的地震区公路震害风险评估[J].同济大学学报(自然科学版),2014,42(9):1352-1358JIA Xing-li,XU Jin-liang.Colud model-based seismic risk assessment of road in earthquake region[J].Journal of Tongji University(Natural Science),2014,42(9):1352-1358
[8]帅青燕,何亚伯.基于云模型的坝基岩体质量综合评价[J].东南大学学报(自然科学版),2013,43(增1):54-58SHUAI Qing-yan,HE Ya-bo.Comprehensive evaluation on rock quality of dam foundation based on cloud model[J].Journal of Southeast University(Natural Science Edition),2013,43(S1I):54-58
[9]陈轶俊,刘敦文,朱鼎耀,等.基于云模型的舰艇弹药库房综合安全评价[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2015,11(2):138-144CHEN Yi-jun,LIU Dun-wen,ZHU Ding-yao,et al.Comprehensive safety evaluation of ship ammunition depot based on cloud model[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2015,11(2):138-144
[10]钟鸣.基于关联规则和云模型的水库诱发地震风险多层次模糊综合评价[D].武汉:华中科技大学,2013
[11]罗赟骞,夏靖波,陈天平.基于云模型和熵权的网络性能综合评估模型[J].重庆邮电大学学报(自然科学版),2009,21(6):771-775LUO Yun-qian,XIA Jing-bo,CHEN Tian-ping.Network performance comprehensive evaluation model based on cloud model and entropy weight[J].Journal of Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications(Natural Science Edition),2009,21(6):771-775
[12]李德毅,杜鹢.不确定性人工智能[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2005
[2]何美丽,刘霁,刘浪,等.隧道坍方风险评价的未确知测度模型及工程应用[J].中南大学学报(自然科学版),2012,43(9):3665-3671HE Mei-li,LIU Ji,LIU Lang,et al.Unascertained measure model of assessment tunnel collapse risk and its application in engineering[J].Journal of Central South University(Science and Technology),2012,43(9):3665-3671
[3]张龙云,李术才,杨尚阳.隧道围岩稳定性评价的改进熵权-属性识别模型[J].水电能源科学,2012,30(4):67-69ZHANG Long-yun,LI Shu-cai,YANG Shang-yang.Improved entropy-attribute recognition model of surrounding rock stability in tunnel[J].Water Resources and Power,2012,30(4):67-69
[4]刘学增,包浩杉,米东阳.公路隧道穿越断层塌方预测多级模糊综合评判[J].现代隧道技术,2011,48(6):65-71Liu Xue-zeng,Bao Hao-shan,Mi Dong-yang.Method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation for the collapse of tunnels affected by faults[J].Modern Tunnelling Technology,2011,48(6):65-71
[5]李健,汪明武,徐鹏,等.基于云模型的围岩稳定性分类[J].岩土工程学报,2014,36(1):83-87LI Jian,WANG Ming-wu,XU Peng,et al.Classification of stability of surrounding rock using cloud model[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2014,36(1):83-87
[6]张军,陈征宙,刘登峰.基于云模型的岩质边坡稳定性评估研究[J].水文地质工程地质,2014,41(6):44-50ZHANG Jun,CHEN Zheng-zhou,LIU Deng-feng.Stability evaluation of a rock slope based on the cloud model[J].Hydrogeology&Engineering Geology,2014,41(6):44-50
[7]贾兴利,许金良.基于云模型的地震区公路震害风险评估[J].同济大学学报(自然科学版),2014,42(9):1352-1358JIA Xing-li,XU Jin-liang.Colud model-based seismic risk assessment of road in earthquake region[J].Journal of Tongji University(Natural Science),2014,42(9):1352-1358
[8]帅青燕,何亚伯.基于云模型的坝基岩体质量综合评价[J].东南大学学报(自然科学版),2013,43(增1):54-58SHUAI Qing-yan,HE Ya-bo.Comprehensive evaluation on rock quality of dam foundation based on cloud model[J].Journal of Southeast University(Natural Science Edition),2013,43(S1I):54-58
[9]陈轶俊,刘敦文,朱鼎耀,等.基于云模型的舰艇弹药库房综合安全评价[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2015,11(2):138-144CHEN Yi-jun,LIU Dun-wen,ZHU Ding-yao,et al.Comprehensive safety evaluation of ship ammunition depot based on cloud model[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2015,11(2):138-144
[10]钟鸣.基于关联规则和云模型的水库诱发地震风险多层次模糊综合评价[D].武汉:华中科技大学,2013
[11]罗赟骞,夏靖波,陈天平.基于云模型和熵权的网络性能综合评估模型[J].重庆邮电大学学报(自然科学版),2009,21(6):771-775LUO Yun-qian,XIA Jing-bo,CHEN Tian-ping.Network performance comprehensive evaluation model based on cloud model and entropy weight[J].Journal of Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications(Natural Science Edition),2009,21(6):771-775
[12]李德毅,杜鹢.不确定性人工智能[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2005
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