预测TBM掘进速率的难点及对策研究
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摘要
结合TBM施工方法的特点,分析研究了制约准确预测掘进速率的三个因素:岩体条件的不确定性、机-岩相互作用的复杂性和施工过程的多变性。以Maen隧道为例研究发现,TBM的净掘进速率PR分布具有随机性。根据这一特点,提出了基于风险评估方法的TBM施工决策方法,即应用定量的风险评估方法(DAT模型)来预测采用TBM施工的工期和成本的概率分布情况。业主和施工方可以据此来决策是否选择用TBM法,从而实现是否选用TBM法施工的科学决策。
In the light of the features of TBM driving and rock mass system,three factors which restrict the accurate prediction of the advance rate are analyzed,i.e.the uncertainty of rock mass condition,the complexity of machine/rock interaction and the variability of the tunneling process.Taking Maen tunnel for an example,it has been discovered that the histogram of net penetrating rate(PR) distribution is approximately fitted to normal probability density functions.So a method based on risk assessment to decide whether applying TBM is described.With this method it utilizes a quantitative risk assessment DAT model to estimate project duration and cost distribution.Then owner and bidders can scientifically determine whether or not applying TBM driving.
In the light of the features of TBM driving and rock mass system,three factors which restrict the accurate prediction of the advance rate are analyzed,i.e.the uncertainty of rock mass condition,the complexity of machine/rock interaction and the variability of the tunneling process.Taking Maen tunnel for an example,it has been discovered that the histogram of net penetrating rate(PR) distribution is approximately fitted to normal probability density functions.So a method based on risk assessment to decide whether applying TBM is described.With this method it utilizes a quantitative risk assessment DAT model to estimate project duration and cost distribution.Then owner and bidders can scientifically determine whether or not applying TBM driving.
引文
[1]王梦恕,李典璜,张镜剑,等.岩石隧道掘进机(TBM)施工及工程实例[M].北京:中国铁道出版社,2004:16～23,121～124WANG Mengshu,LI Dianhuang,ZHANG Jingjian,Fu Bingjun,et al.The Construction of Rock Tunnel Boring Machine and Project Examples[M].Beijing:China Railway Publishing House,2004:16～23,121～124
[2]尹俊涛,尚彦军,傅冰俊,等.TBM掘进技术发展及有关工程地质问题分析和对策[J].工程地质学报,2005,13(3):389～396YIN Juntao,SHANG Yanjun,FU Bingjun,etc.Development of TBM-Excavation technology and analyses&countermeasures of related engineering geological problems[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2005,13(3):389～396
[3]M.Alvarez Grima,P.A.Bruines,P.N.W.Verhoef.Modeling tunnel boring machine performance by Neuro-Fuzzy Methods[J].Tunnelling and underground space technology,2000,15(3):259～264
[4]Ralf J.Plinninger,Heiko Kasling,Kurosch Thuro.Wear prediction in hard rock excavation using the CERCHAR abrasivenessindex(CAI)[A].EUROCK 2004&53rd Geomechanics Colloquium,2004
[5]Richard Gertsch.Rock toughness and disc cutting[D],Missouri:The university of Missouri-Rolla,1998:1～3
[6]R Ribacchi,A Lembo Fazio.Influence of rock mass parameters on the performance of a TBM in a Gneissic Formation(Varzo Tunnel)[J].Rock Mech.Rock Engng,2005,38(2):105～127
[7]I.S.Cameron-Clarke,S.Budavari.Correlation of rock mass classification parameters obtained from borecore and in situobservations[J].Engineering Geology,17,1981:19～53
[8]水利部科技推广中心.全断面岩石掘进机[M].北京:石油工业出版社,2005Science and Technology Extension Center of The Ministry of Water Resources of PRC.Full-face Rock Tunnel Boring Machine[M].Beijing:Petroleum Industry Press,2005(in Chinese)
[9]孙广忠.地质工程理论与实践[M].北京:地震出版社,1996Sun Guangzhong.Theory and Practice of Geological Engineering[M].Beijing:Earthauake Press,1996.(in chinese)
[10]王旭,李晓,李守定.关于用岩体分类方法预测TBM掘进速率AR的讨论[J].工程地质学报,2008,16(4):470～475WANG Xu,LI Xiao,LI Souding.Problems in the prediction of the TBM advance rate with rock mass classification and theirpossible solutions[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2008,16(4):470～475
[11]Yousof Qahtan.Analysis of performance of tunnel boring machine-based system[Doctorate Dissertation][D],Austi:The universityof Texas,1998:388～398
[12]Q.M.Gong,J.Zhao,Y.S.Jiang.In situ TBM penetration tests and rock mass boreability analysis in hard rock tunnels[J].Tunnelling and underground space technology,2007,22(3):303～316
[13]Rostami J.Ozdemir L.A new model for performance prediction of hard rock TBMs[A],Chapter 50,RETC conference proceedings,1993,Boston MA,13～17
[14]Rostami,J,Ozdemir,L.,Nilsen,B.Comparison between CSM and NTH Hard Rock TBM Performance Prediction Models[A].Proceedings of Annual Technical Meeting of the Institute of Shaft Drilling Technology,Las Vegas,1996,1～10
[15]龚秋明,赵坚,张喜虎.岩石隧道掘进机的施工预测模型[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2004,23(增2):4709～4714GONG Qiuming,ZHAO Jian,ZHANG Xihu.Performance Prediction of Hard Rock TBM Tunneling[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering.2004,23(supplement 2):4709～4714
[16]Michael Alber.Advance rates of hard rock TBMs and their effects on project economics[J].Tunnelling and underground spacetechnology,2000,15(1):55～64
[17]Christopher Laughtonn.Evaluation and prediction of TBM performance in variable rock mass[D],Austi:The university of Texas,1998:132～139,203～223
[18]Eskesen S.D.,Tengborg P.R,Kampmann J.,Veicherts T.H..Guidelines for tunneling risk management:International Tunneling Association,Working Group No.2[J].Tunneling and Underground Space technology,2004,(19):217～237
[19]Al-Bahar J.F..Systematic risk management approach for construction projects[J].Journal of Construction Engineering and Management,1990,116(3):533～546
[20]路美丽,刘维宁,罗富荣,等.隧道与地下工程风险评估方法研究进展[J].工程地质学报,2006,14(04):462～469LU Meili,LIU Weining,LUO Furong,et al.Review on risk assessment methods for tunneling and underground projects[J].Journalof Engineering Geology,2006,14(04),462～469
[21]黄宏伟,陈桂香.风险管理在降低地铁造价中的作用[J].现代隧道技术,2003,40(5):1～6Huang Hongwei,Chen Guixiang.Role of risk management in the cost of metro construction.Modern Tunneling Technology,2003,40(5):1～6
[22]胡群芳.基于地层变异的盾构隧道工程风险分析及其应用研究[D].上海:同济大学博士学位论文.2006-09HU Qunfang.Risk analysis and its application for tunnel works based on research of stratum and soil spatial variability[D].Shanghai:Thesis of Doctor Degree,Tongji university,2006-09
[23]陈龙.软土地区盾构隧道施工期风险分析与评估研究[D].上海:同济大学博士学位论文.2004-03Chen Long.Risk analysis and evaluative research during construction of soft soil shield tunnel in urban area[D].Shanghai:Thesisof Doctor Degree,Tongji university,2004-03
[24]尚彦军,杨志法,曾庆利,等.TBM施工遇险工程地质问题分析和失误的反思[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2007,26(12):2404～2411SHANG Yanjun,YANG Zhifa,ZENG Qingli,et al.Retrospective analysis of TBM accidents from its poor flexibility tocomplicated geological conditions[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering.2007,26(12):2404～2411
[25]Einstein H.H.,Xu S.,Grasso P.,Mahtab M.A..Decision Aids in tunneling[J].World tunneling,1998,(4):157～159
[2]尹俊涛,尚彦军,傅冰俊,等.TBM掘进技术发展及有关工程地质问题分析和对策[J].工程地质学报,2005,13(3):389～396YIN Juntao,SHANG Yanjun,FU Bingjun,etc.Development of TBM-Excavation technology and analyses&countermeasures of related engineering geological problems[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2005,13(3):389～396
[3]M.Alvarez Grima,P.A.Bruines,P.N.W.Verhoef.Modeling tunnel boring machine performance by Neuro-Fuzzy Methods[J].Tunnelling and underground space technology,2000,15(3):259～264
[4]Ralf J.Plinninger,Heiko Kasling,Kurosch Thuro.Wear prediction in hard rock excavation using the CERCHAR abrasivenessindex(CAI)[A].EUROCK 2004&53rd Geomechanics Colloquium,2004
[5]Richard Gertsch.Rock toughness and disc cutting[D],Missouri:The university of Missouri-Rolla,1998:1～3
[6]R Ribacchi,A Lembo Fazio.Influence of rock mass parameters on the performance of a TBM in a Gneissic Formation(Varzo Tunnel)[J].Rock Mech.Rock Engng,2005,38(2):105～127
[7]I.S.Cameron-Clarke,S.Budavari.Correlation of rock mass classification parameters obtained from borecore and in situobservations[J].Engineering Geology,17,1981:19～53
[8]水利部科技推广中心.全断面岩石掘进机[M].北京:石油工业出版社,2005Science and Technology Extension Center of The Ministry of Water Resources of PRC.Full-face Rock Tunnel Boring Machine[M].Beijing:Petroleum Industry Press,2005(in Chinese)
[9]孙广忠.地质工程理论与实践[M].北京:地震出版社,1996Sun Guangzhong.Theory and Practice of Geological Engineering[M].Beijing:Earthauake Press,1996.(in chinese)
[10]王旭,李晓,李守定.关于用岩体分类方法预测TBM掘进速率AR的讨论[J].工程地质学报,2008,16(4):470～475WANG Xu,LI Xiao,LI Souding.Problems in the prediction of the TBM advance rate with rock mass classification and theirpossible solutions[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2008,16(4):470～475
[11]Yousof Qahtan.Analysis of performance of tunnel boring machine-based system[Doctorate Dissertation][D],Austi:The universityof Texas,1998:388～398
[12]Q.M.Gong,J.Zhao,Y.S.Jiang.In situ TBM penetration tests and rock mass boreability analysis in hard rock tunnels[J].Tunnelling and underground space technology,2007,22(3):303～316
[13]Rostami J.Ozdemir L.A new model for performance prediction of hard rock TBMs[A],Chapter 50,RETC conference proceedings,1993,Boston MA,13～17
[14]Rostami,J,Ozdemir,L.,Nilsen,B.Comparison between CSM and NTH Hard Rock TBM Performance Prediction Models[A].Proceedings of Annual Technical Meeting of the Institute of Shaft Drilling Technology,Las Vegas,1996,1～10
[15]龚秋明,赵坚,张喜虎.岩石隧道掘进机的施工预测模型[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2004,23(增2):4709～4714GONG Qiuming,ZHAO Jian,ZHANG Xihu.Performance Prediction of Hard Rock TBM Tunneling[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering.2004,23(supplement 2):4709～4714
[16]Michael Alber.Advance rates of hard rock TBMs and their effects on project economics[J].Tunnelling and underground spacetechnology,2000,15(1):55～64
[17]Christopher Laughtonn.Evaluation and prediction of TBM performance in variable rock mass[D],Austi:The university of Texas,1998:132～139,203～223
[18]Eskesen S.D.,Tengborg P.R,Kampmann J.,Veicherts T.H..Guidelines for tunneling risk management:International Tunneling Association,Working Group No.2[J].Tunneling and Underground Space technology,2004,(19):217～237
[19]Al-Bahar J.F..Systematic risk management approach for construction projects[J].Journal of Construction Engineering and Management,1990,116(3):533～546
[20]路美丽,刘维宁,罗富荣,等.隧道与地下工程风险评估方法研究进展[J].工程地质学报,2006,14(04):462～469LU Meili,LIU Weining,LUO Furong,et al.Review on risk assessment methods for tunneling and underground projects[J].Journalof Engineering Geology,2006,14(04),462～469
[21]黄宏伟,陈桂香.风险管理在降低地铁造价中的作用[J].现代隧道技术,2003,40(5):1～6Huang Hongwei,Chen Guixiang.Role of risk management in the cost of metro construction.Modern Tunneling Technology,2003,40(5):1～6
[22]胡群芳.基于地层变异的盾构隧道工程风险分析及其应用研究[D].上海:同济大学博士学位论文.2006-09HU Qunfang.Risk analysis and its application for tunnel works based on research of stratum and soil spatial variability[D].Shanghai:Thesis of Doctor Degree,Tongji university,2006-09
[23]陈龙.软土地区盾构隧道施工期风险分析与评估研究[D].上海:同济大学博士学位论文.2004-03Chen Long.Risk analysis and evaluative research during construction of soft soil shield tunnel in urban area[D].Shanghai:Thesisof Doctor Degree,Tongji university,2004-03
[24]尚彦军,杨志法,曾庆利,等.TBM施工遇险工程地质问题分析和失误的反思[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2007,26(12):2404～2411SHANG Yanjun,YANG Zhifa,ZENG Qingli,et al.Retrospective analysis of TBM accidents from its poor flexibility tocomplicated geological conditions[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering.2007,26(12):2404～2411
[25]Einstein H.H.,Xu S.,Grasso P.,Mahtab M.A..Decision Aids in tunneling[J].World tunneling,1998,(4):157～159
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