依据前兆信息对台湾强地震的预测
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摘要
1999-09-21台湾集集(23.85°N,120.78°E)发生了M_s7.3地震.这次地震前,距震中1800 km以外的北京工业大学地震研究所(39.88°N,116.47°E)接收到多种非常清晰的临震信号:次声波异常、地应力突变及虎皮鹦鹉跳动频率异常等.在对这些信号分析研究的基础上,成功预测了在台湾发生的地震,包括:1999-09-21 M_s7.3地震、2001-12-18的M_s7.5地震、2002-03-31的M_s7.5地震、2004-05-19的M_s6.7地震、2004-10-15的M_s7.0地震和2005-10-15的M_s6.6地震等.
A major earthquake occurred in Taiwan on September 21,1999,the magnitude of which is 7.3 and it's located in the central region of Taiwan(23.85°N,120.78°E).Prior to this earthquake,several distinct imminent precursors were observed by the Research Institute of Earthquake Prediction in Beijing University of Technology(39.88°N,116.47°E),which is more than 1 800 km away from the epicenter such as abnormal infrasonic wave signals,sudden change in crustal stress signals,abnormal jump frequency of the budgerigars etc.Based on the analysis and research of the above information,we have successfully predicted the earth- quakes occurred in Taiwan,such as M_s7.5 on December 18,2001,M_sT.5 on March 31,2002,M_s6.7 on May 19,2004,M_s7.0 on October 15,2004 and Ms6.6 on OctoberlS,2005 etc.
A major earthquake occurred in Taiwan on September 21,1999,the magnitude of which is 7.3 and it's located in the central region of Taiwan(23.85°N,120.78°E).Prior to this earthquake,several distinct imminent precursors were observed by the Research Institute of Earthquake Prediction in Beijing University of Technology(39.88°N,116.47°E),which is more than 1 800 km away from the epicenter such as abnormal infrasonic wave signals,sudden change in crustal stress signals,abnormal jump frequency of the budgerigars etc.Based on the analysis and research of the above information,we have successfully predicted the earth- quakes occurred in Taiwan,such as M_s7.5 on December 18,2001,M_sT.5 on March 31,2002,M_s6.7 on May 19,2004,M_s7.0 on October 15,2004 and Ms6.6 on OctoberlS,2005 etc.
引文
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[5]LI J Z,LU S L,HUANG X N,et al.Reducing seismic hazard and the measurement of crustal stress[C]//TUBBESING S K.Fifth U.S.National Conference on Earthquake Engineering July 10-14,1994 Chicago,Illinois Proceedings VolumeⅢ. USA:Earthquake Engineering Research Institute,1994:387-396.
[6]王仁，丁中一，殷有泉．固体力学基础[M]．北京：地质出版社，1979：192-198．
[7]任振球．引潮力共振对大地震的触发机制探讨[C]//李振声．中国减轻自然灾害研究．北京：中国科学技术出版社，1998：400-404．REN Zhen-qiu.Study on the theory of the tide-generating force resonance trigger the devastating earthquake[ C]//LI Zhen- sheng.Study on Reducing Natural Disasters in China.Beijing:Publishing House of Science and Technology China,1998: 400-404.(in Chinese)
[8]李均之，陈维升，夏稚琴，等．台湾7．6级地震的前兆信息[C]//叶叔华，陈述彭．香山科学会议第133次学术讨论会论文集．北京：科学出版社，2002：48-51．LI Jun-zhi,CHEN Wei-sheng,XIA Ya-qin,et al.The precursory information for M_s7.6 earthquake occurred in Taiwan[C] //YE Shu-hua,CHEN Shu-peng.The Transactions of 133~(rd)China Xiangshan Science Conference.Beijing:Science Press, 2002:48-51.(in Chinese).
[2]LIJ Z,BAI Z Q,XlA Y Q,et al.Method to monitor imminent precursors for earthquakes[C]//HAYAKAWA M, MOLCHANOV O A.Seismo Electromagnetic:Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling.Tokyo,Japan:TERRAPUB, 2002:443-448.
[3]李均之，曹明，夏雅琴，等．岩石压缩试验与震前电磁波辐射的研究[J]．北京工业大学学报，1982．8(4)：47-53 LI Jun-zhi,CAO Ming,XIA Ya-qin,et al.An experimental study on rock compressing and emission of electromagnetic waves before earthquake[J].Journal of Beijing University of Technology,1982,8(4):47-53.(in Chinese)
[4]李均之，刘玉荣，陈维升，等．临震预报的一个重要方法——次声波异常[C]//陈顒，刘振兴，邹光华，等．地球物理与中国建设．北京：地质出版社，1997：295-296．LI Jun-zhi,LIU Yu-rong,CHEN Wei-sheng,et at.Intrasonic wave method for the imminent earthquake prediction[C]// CHEN Yong,LIU Zhen-xing,ZOU Guang-hua,et al.Geophysics and China Construction.Beijing:Geologieal Publishing House,1997:295 296.(in Chinese)
[5]LI J Z,LU S L,HUANG X N,et al.Reducing seismic hazard and the measurement of crustal stress[C]//TUBBESING S K.Fifth U.S.National Conference on Earthquake Engineering July 10-14,1994 Chicago,Illinois Proceedings VolumeⅢ. USA:Earthquake Engineering Research Institute,1994:387-396.
[6]王仁，丁中一，殷有泉．固体力学基础[M]．北京：地质出版社，1979：192-198．
[7]任振球．引潮力共振对大地震的触发机制探讨[C]//李振声．中国减轻自然灾害研究．北京：中国科学技术出版社，1998：400-404．REN Zhen-qiu.Study on the theory of the tide-generating force resonance trigger the devastating earthquake[ C]//LI Zhen- sheng.Study on Reducing Natural Disasters in China.Beijing:Publishing House of Science and Technology China,1998: 400-404.(in Chinese)
[8]李均之，陈维升，夏稚琴，等．台湾7．6级地震的前兆信息[C]//叶叔华，陈述彭．香山科学会议第133次学术讨论会论文集．北京：科学出版社，2002：48-51．LI Jun-zhi,CHEN Wei-sheng,XIA Ya-qin,et al.The precursory information for M_s7.6 earthquake occurred in Taiwan[C] //YE Shu-hua,CHEN Shu-peng.The Transactions of 133~(rd)China Xiangshan Science Conference.Beijing:Science Press, 2002:48-51.(in Chinese).
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