公路桥梁风险估测方法
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摘要
为了提高公路桥梁风险估测的精度、效率和可操作性,提出了响应面法与改进德尔菲法相结合的桥梁风险估测方法.给出了基于响应面法进行桥梁损伤概率计算的流程,利用改进德尔菲法对专家意见进行最优化调整以实现风险损失等级的定量估测.通过对内蒙古一座大型自锚式悬索桥运营期地震损伤风险估测,验证了该方法的有效性与实用性.实例应用表明:基于响应面法的桥梁结构损伤概率估测方法既考虑了具体桥梁的受力特性又考虑了客观存在的不确定性,能定量计算结构损伤风险概率;改进德尔菲法克服了传统德尔菲法的不足,在保证专家意见可靠性的同时减少了计算和统计工作量,提高了风险评估工作的效率.
In order to improve the accuracy,efficiency and maneuverability of risk estimation of highway bridges,a response surface method and the improved Delphi method based framework for risk assessment of highway bridges is proposed.The flowchart of damage risk probability analysis of bridges based on response surface method is presented.The improved Delphi method is proposed to estimate the risk of highway bridges.The results of expert survey are adjusted by an optimization model,then the grade of risk loss is estimated quantificationally using the improved Delphi method.The damage risk assessment under earthquake of a self-anchored suspension bridge is carried out for illustrating the application and efficiency of the proposed methodology.The illustrative example indicates that not only the specific characteristics of the bridge but also the objective existence of uncertainty are considered by the response surface method based bridge damage probability estimation method,structural damage risk probability is calculated quantitatively taking full advantage of existing research results;The improved Delphi method overcomes the deficiencies of the traditional Delphi method,the statistical and computational workload are reduced while the reliability of expert opinions are ensured,so the time required for risk estimation is shortened to improve the efficiency of the risk assessment.
In order to improve the accuracy,efficiency and maneuverability of risk estimation of highway bridges,a response surface method and the improved Delphi method based framework for risk assessment of highway bridges is proposed.The flowchart of damage risk probability analysis of bridges based on response surface method is presented.The improved Delphi method is proposed to estimate the risk of highway bridges.The results of expert survey are adjusted by an optimization model,then the grade of risk loss is estimated quantificationally using the improved Delphi method.The damage risk assessment under earthquake of a self-anchored suspension bridge is carried out for illustrating the application and efficiency of the proposed methodology.The illustrative example indicates that not only the specific characteristics of the bridge but also the objective existence of uncertainty are considered by the response surface method based bridge damage probability estimation method,structural damage risk probability is calculated quantitatively taking full advantage of existing research results;The improved Delphi method overcomes the deficiencies of the traditional Delphi method,the statistical and computational workload are reduced while the reliability of expert opinions are ensured,so the time required for risk estimation is shortened to improve the efficiency of the risk assessment.
引文
[1]巩春领.大跨度斜拉桥施工风险分析与对策研究[D].上海:同济大学,2006.
[2]阮欣,陈艾荣,石雪飞.桥梁工程风险评估[M].北京:人民交通出版社,2008.
[3]张杰.大跨度桥梁施工期风险分析方法研究[D].上海:同济大学,2007.
[4]STEIN S M,KENNETH YOUNG G,TRENT R E,et al.Prioritizing scour vulnerable bridges using risk[J].Jour-nal of Infrastructure Systems,1999,5(3):95-101.
[5]PADGETT J E,DENNEMANN K,GHOSH J.Risk-based seismic life-cycle cost:benefit(LCC-B)analysisfor bridge retrofit assessment[J].Structural Safety,2010,32(3):165-173.
[6]朱劲松,肖汝诚.结构可靠度分析的人工智能响应面法及程序[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报,2009,41(4):169-172.
[7]JIN Cheng.An artificial neural network based geneticalgorithm for estimating the reliability of long span sus-pension bridges[J].Finite Elements in Analysis andDesign,2010,46(8):658-667.
[8]程进,肖汝诚.大跨度悬索桥颤振可靠度分析的改进响应面法[J].土木工程学报,2006,39(7):69-73.
[9]周敉,王君杰,袁万城.自锚式悬索桥地震反应有限元分析[J].长安大学学报:自然科学版,2008,28(1):66-71.
[10]王喜良,岳振民.大跨悬索桥塔顶位移控制值分析[J].桥梁建设,2003,20(6):38-47.
[11]王诗青.公路桥梁风险评估关键技术研究[D].天津:天津大学,2010.
[2]阮欣,陈艾荣,石雪飞.桥梁工程风险评估[M].北京:人民交通出版社,2008.
[3]张杰.大跨度桥梁施工期风险分析方法研究[D].上海:同济大学,2007.
[4]STEIN S M,KENNETH YOUNG G,TRENT R E,et al.Prioritizing scour vulnerable bridges using risk[J].Jour-nal of Infrastructure Systems,1999,5(3):95-101.
[5]PADGETT J E,DENNEMANN K,GHOSH J.Risk-based seismic life-cycle cost:benefit(LCC-B)analysisfor bridge retrofit assessment[J].Structural Safety,2010,32(3):165-173.
[6]朱劲松,肖汝诚.结构可靠度分析的人工智能响应面法及程序[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报,2009,41(4):169-172.
[7]JIN Cheng.An artificial neural network based geneticalgorithm for estimating the reliability of long span sus-pension bridges[J].Finite Elements in Analysis andDesign,2010,46(8):658-667.
[8]程进,肖汝诚.大跨度悬索桥颤振可靠度分析的改进响应面法[J].土木工程学报,2006,39(7):69-73.
[9]周敉,王君杰,袁万城.自锚式悬索桥地震反应有限元分析[J].长安大学学报:自然科学版,2008,28(1):66-71.
[10]王喜良,岳振民.大跨悬索桥塔顶位移控制值分析[J].桥梁建设,2003,20(6):38-47.
[11]王诗青.公路桥梁风险评估关键技术研究[D].天津:天津大学,2010.
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