基于高速公路交通影响的雾天预测优势比模型
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摘要
雾对高速公路交通运行及行车安全有重要影响,掌握雾天出现的天气特征,有利于提高高速公路雾天管理的有效性和针对性。对雾天形成气象条件的时间演变进行的主成分分析与相关性分析表明,最大湿度和昼夜温差对雾的形成有决定性影响,其中相对湿度的对起雾的影响大于昼夜温差影响,将相对湿度大于95%作为起雾的关键因素。当相对湿度超过95%,昼夜温差超过4.5℃时,起雾的概率是无雾的7.77倍。建立了雾天出现的优势比模型,该模型可以用于雾情预测,为高速公路雾天管理提供依据。
Fog weather has a significant impact on freeway traffic safety, and mastering foggy weather appears feature is a key issue for improving the management effectiveness. A principal component analysis and correlation analysis on the formation time evolution of meteorological conditions for fog generating showed that the maximum humidity and temperature difference between day and night have a decisive impact on the formation of fog. When relative humidity exceeds 95%, and more than 4.5 ℃ temperature difference between day and night, 7.77 times the probability of fog is than fog-free.Finally,a odds ration model of fog days prediction was built,the model can be used for fog forecasting,and provides decision supporting for expressways management in fog days.
Fog weather has a significant impact on freeway traffic safety, and mastering foggy weather appears feature is a key issue for improving the management effectiveness. A principal component analysis and correlation analysis on the formation time evolution of meteorological conditions for fog generating showed that the maximum humidity and temperature difference between day and night have a decisive impact on the formation of fog. When relative humidity exceeds 95%, and more than 4.5 ℃ temperature difference between day and night, 7.77 times the probability of fog is than fog-free.Finally,a odds ration model of fog days prediction was built,the model can be used for fog forecasting,and provides decision supporting for expressways management in fog days.
引文
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[2]Frank D.Shepard.Reduced visibility due to fog on the highway[M].Washington D.C.,1996
[3]陶建军,杨禹华.高湿天气的时空变化及其对交通安全的影响[J].中国安全科学学报.2008,18(9):11-15
[4]沈晓燕.刘浩学.基于主成分分析法的危险货物运输企业安全评价[J].中国安全学报.2012,22(1):124-129
[5]李悦,关锌.我国地热资源开发利用优势对比分析[J].水文地质工程地质.2011.6:1-3
[6]许冲,徐锡伟.逻辑回归模型在玉树地震滑坡危险性评价中的应用与检验[J].工程地质学报.2012,20(3):326-333
[2]Frank D.Shepard.Reduced visibility due to fog on the highway[M].Washington D.C.,1996
[3]陶建军,杨禹华.高湿天气的时空变化及其对交通安全的影响[J].中国安全科学学报.2008,18(9):11-15
[4]沈晓燕.刘浩学.基于主成分分析法的危险货物运输企业安全评价[J].中国安全学报.2012,22(1):124-129
[5]李悦,关锌.我国地热资源开发利用优势对比分析[J].水文地质工程地质.2011.6:1-3
[6]许冲,徐锡伟.逻辑回归模型在玉树地震滑坡危险性评价中的应用与检验[J].工程地质学报.2012,20(3):326-333
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