分形理论及其在道路交通事故预测中的应用
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摘要
基于分形理论,用功率谱分析方法对道路交通事故时间序列进行可行性研究,得出的结论是:在统计意义上,道路交通事故时间序列具有自仿射性,可以用分形理论进行进一步的研究。在此基础上将R/S分析方法应用于道路交通事故预测中,得到道路交通事故的发展趋势和分形维数,结果表明未来几年全国的道路交通事故有继续减少的趋势
Based on the fractal theory,an research on the feasibility of traffic accident time series by the power spectrum analysis is presented.The calculation result shows that in the sense of statistics,time series of traffic accidents has certain selfaffinity,which can be studied with the fractal theory.Then,the R/S fractal analysis method was applied to forecast the traffic accidents.The trend prediction and the fractal dimension are achieved.The calculation result shows that the trend of national traffic accidents will continue to reduce in the next few years.
Based on the fractal theory,an research on the feasibility of traffic accident time series by the power spectrum analysis is presented.The calculation result shows that in the sense of statistics,time series of traffic accidents has certain selfaffinity,which can be studied with the fractal theory.Then,the R/S fractal analysis method was applied to forecast the traffic accidents.The trend prediction and the fractal dimension are achieved.The calculation result shows that the trend of national traffic accidents will continue to reduce in the next few years.
引文
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[5]徐学明,王丽,荣建.功率谱在交通流混沌现象研究中的应用[J].公路交通科技,2006,23(3):125-127.
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[8]李水根,吴纪桃.分形与小波[M].北京:科学出版社,2002,.
[2]李水根.分形[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2004.
[3]张飞燕,陈晓山.分形概念及其在构造地质研究中的应用[J].中国煤炭地,2008,20(3):16-19.
[4]陈鹏,李旭宏,孙华灿.基于分形理论的交通事故分析[J].公路交通科技,2008,25(3):130-133.
[5]徐学明,王丽,荣建.功率谱在交通流混沌现象研究中的应用[J].公路交通科技,2006,23(3):125-127.
[6]陈颙,陈凌.分形几何学[M].北京:地震出版社,1998.
[7]徐水太,饶运章.基于R/S分析矿山铜污染分形预测[J].矿业安全与环保,2006,33(5):72-73.
[8]李水根,吴纪桃.分形与小波[M].北京:科学出版社,2002,.
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