铁路路堤风险管理研究与实例分析
|
摘要
研究目的:目前针对铁路路堤风险管理方面的研究资料十分有限,尚未形成系统的风险管理体系,建立和完善铁路路堤安全风险预测及评价理论,实现对铁路路堤的全面风险防范和管理具有重要的现实意义,为此本文对铁路路堤安全风险预测和评估方法进行了研究,并对某铁路路堤的风险进行实例分析,可为铁路路基工程类风险管理技术方法研究提供借鉴和指导。研究结论:(1)提出了用于风险分析计算的"层次分析+专家调查+模糊评价"综合分析法,给出了具体步骤,并结合工程实例进行了演示。(2)提出了铁路路堤风险等级分为轻微、轻度、中度、重度、灾难性等5级的建议,并研究提出了相应各等级风险的风险处置对策。(3)计算表明,铁路路堤各风险因素中地震风险的风险权重最大,地震区路堤设计应采取相应的风险处置措施。(4)"层次分析+专家调查+模糊评价"综合分析法,具有层次鲜明、步骤清晰、可以实现风险的量化分析的特点,可用于铁路、公路路基工程风险的识别与分析。
Research purposes: The information of risk management research is limited. And the risk management system has not been formed. So it is important and significative to establish the risk prediction and evaluation theory and realize the risk prevention and management for the railway embankment. This paper studied the method of risk prediction and evaluation theory for railway embankment,and analyzed the risk of one railway embankment. All above can provide reference and guidance for the research of risk management techniques of railway subgrade engineering.Research conclusions:(1) In the paper,a comprehensive analysis method with "analytic hierarchy process + expert investigation + fuzzy evaluation"is put forward for analysis and calculation of the risk of railway embankment engineering and the specific steps have been given.(2) It is suggested to class risk factors of railway embankment as slight degree,mild degree,moderate degree,severe degree and catastrophic degree and the corresponding treatment measures are put forward.(3) The calculation result shows the weight of seismic risk factor is maximum in the risk factors,therefore,the corresponding risk treatment measures shall be taken in the design of embankment in the seismic area.(4) The comprehensive analysis method with "analytic hierarchy process + expert investigation + fuzzy evaluation " is characterized by distinct levels,clear steps and quantitative analysis of risk,which can be used for identification and analysis of subgrade engineering risk of railway and highway.
Research purposes: The information of risk management research is limited. And the risk management system has not been formed. So it is important and significative to establish the risk prediction and evaluation theory and realize the risk prevention and management for the railway embankment. This paper studied the method of risk prediction and evaluation theory for railway embankment,and analyzed the risk of one railway embankment. All above can provide reference and guidance for the research of risk management techniques of railway subgrade engineering.Research conclusions:(1) In the paper,a comprehensive analysis method with "analytic hierarchy process + expert investigation + fuzzy evaluation"is put forward for analysis and calculation of the risk of railway embankment engineering and the specific steps have been given.(2) It is suggested to class risk factors of railway embankment as slight degree,mild degree,moderate degree,severe degree and catastrophic degree and the corresponding treatment measures are put forward.(3) The calculation result shows the weight of seismic risk factor is maximum in the risk factors,therefore,the corresponding risk treatment measures shall be taken in the design of embankment in the seismic area.(4) The comprehensive analysis method with "analytic hierarchy process + expert investigation + fuzzy evaluation " is characterized by distinct levels,clear steps and quantitative analysis of risk,which can be used for identification and analysis of subgrade engineering risk of railway and highway.
引文
[1]温家洪.中国地震灾害风险管理[J].地理科学进展,2010(7):771-777.Wen Jiahong.Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Management in China[J].Progress in Geography,2010(7):771-777.
[2]郭坚鸽.赣龙扩能施工图设计路基风险评估探讨[J].铁道勘察,2012(3):38-41.Guo Jiange.Discuss Risk Assessment Of Roadbed About Capacity Enlargement Construction Drawing Design of Ganzhou-Longyan Railway[J].Railway Investigation and Surveying,2012(3):38-41.
[3]袁腾方.高速公路岩溶路基稳定性风险分析方法[J].铁道工程学报,2010(4):61-66.Yuan Tengfang.Risk Analysis Method of Carst Roadbed Stability in Expressway[J].Journal of Railway Engineering Society,2010(4):61-66.
[4]牛衍亮.三峡库区库岸公路路基安全风险评价[J].同济大学学报(自然科学版),2012(2):246-250.Niu Yanliang.Risk Assessment of Bank Roadbed Security along Three Gorges[J].Journal of Tongji University(Natural Science),2012(2):246-250.
[5]陈伟珂.工程项目风险管理[M].北京:人民交通出版社,2009.Chen Weike.Risk Management for Engineering[M].Beijing:People Communications Press,2009.
[6]陈起俊.工程项目风险分析与管理[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2007.Chen Qijun.Risk Management and Analysis for Engineering[M].Beijing:China Architecture&Bulding Press,2007.
[7]陈国钧.模糊综合评判法在新宾县地质灾害易发程度分区评价中的应用[J].地质与资源,2009(1):74-76.Chen Guojun.Application of Fuzzy Compressive Evaluation in the Grading of Hazard in Xinbin County,Liaoning Province[J].Geology and Resources,2009(1):74-76.
[8]吕云南.市政道路工程质量模糊综合评价[J].武汉理工大学学报,2000(6):34-38.Lv Yunnan.Fuzzy Compressive Evaluation for the Quality of Municipal Road[J].Journal of Wuhan University of Technology,2000(6):34-38.
[9]张丽萍.矿山泥石流成灾度模糊综合评价——以神府东胜矿区为例[J].山地学报,2002(2):212-217.Zhang Liping.Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation on Disastrous Degree of Mine Debris Flow-Taking ShenfuDongsheng Coal Field as Example[J].Journal of Mountain Research,2002(2):212-217.
[2]郭坚鸽.赣龙扩能施工图设计路基风险评估探讨[J].铁道勘察,2012(3):38-41.Guo Jiange.Discuss Risk Assessment Of Roadbed About Capacity Enlargement Construction Drawing Design of Ganzhou-Longyan Railway[J].Railway Investigation and Surveying,2012(3):38-41.
[3]袁腾方.高速公路岩溶路基稳定性风险分析方法[J].铁道工程学报,2010(4):61-66.Yuan Tengfang.Risk Analysis Method of Carst Roadbed Stability in Expressway[J].Journal of Railway Engineering Society,2010(4):61-66.
[4]牛衍亮.三峡库区库岸公路路基安全风险评价[J].同济大学学报(自然科学版),2012(2):246-250.Niu Yanliang.Risk Assessment of Bank Roadbed Security along Three Gorges[J].Journal of Tongji University(Natural Science),2012(2):246-250.
[5]陈伟珂.工程项目风险管理[M].北京:人民交通出版社,2009.Chen Weike.Risk Management for Engineering[M].Beijing:People Communications Press,2009.
[6]陈起俊.工程项目风险分析与管理[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2007.Chen Qijun.Risk Management and Analysis for Engineering[M].Beijing:China Architecture&Bulding Press,2007.
[7]陈国钧.模糊综合评判法在新宾县地质灾害易发程度分区评价中的应用[J].地质与资源,2009(1):74-76.Chen Guojun.Application of Fuzzy Compressive Evaluation in the Grading of Hazard in Xinbin County,Liaoning Province[J].Geology and Resources,2009(1):74-76.
[8]吕云南.市政道路工程质量模糊综合评价[J].武汉理工大学学报,2000(6):34-38.Lv Yunnan.Fuzzy Compressive Evaluation for the Quality of Municipal Road[J].Journal of Wuhan University of Technology,2000(6):34-38.
[9]张丽萍.矿山泥石流成灾度模糊综合评价——以神府东胜矿区为例[J].山地学报,2002(2):212-217.Zhang Liping.Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation on Disastrous Degree of Mine Debris Flow-Taking ShenfuDongsheng Coal Field as Example[J].Journal of Mountain Research,2002(2):212-217.
版权所有：© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心