地震序列的b值误差对h值判别法的影响
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摘要
从云南地区 196 5～ 1999年的地震序列中选取 2 8个序列 ,根据古登堡—里克特的地震频度与相应震级之间的公式、刘正荣的h值判别法 ,得到这些地震序列中一些主要地震后的b值、h值 ,并对由b值误差Δb导致的最大后续地震震级Mm 的误差ΔMm 进行定量分析。Mm 的误差的平均值大于 0 3,这可能是h >1时地震活动趋势预测多次误判的原因 ,在应用时应充分考虑到b值的误差Δb对Mm 的影响。
Twenty-eight earthquake sequences from 1965 to 1999 in Yunnan region are select e d. The b value and h value of some important earthqu ake events in these selected sequences are obtained respectively according to Gutenberg-Richter relation and method of h value. The error of magnitude M m (nam ely ΔM m) of the consequent strong earthq uakes caused by the error of b value (namely Δb) is quantit atively analyzed. As a result, the average error of M m is larger tha n 0 3 and this may be the reason of some w rong misjudgments for the forecast of earthquake activity on the condition of h >1.So, the Influence of the error of b value (Δb) on t he v alue of magnitude (M m) should be taken into account.
Twenty-eight earthquake sequences from 1965 to 1999 in Yunnan region are select e d. The b value and h value of some important earthqu ake events in these selected sequences are obtained respectively according to Gutenberg-Richter relation and method of h value. The error of magnitude M m (nam ely ΔM m) of the consequent strong earthq uakes caused by the error of b value (namely Δb) is quantit atively analyzed. As a result, the average error of M m is larger tha n 0 3 and this may be the reason of some w rong misjudgments for the forecast of earthquake activity on the condition of h >1.So, the Influence of the error of b value (Δb) on t he v alue of magnitude (M m) should be taken into account.
引文
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[4]陈时军,马丽.地震活动性统计学方法的若干进展与讨论[J].地震,2002,22(1):32-42.
[2]刘正荣,孔昭麟.地震频度衰减与地震预报[J].地震研究,1986,9(1),1-11.
[3]中国地震局.地震现场工作大纲和技术指南[M ],北京:地震出版社,1998.25-26.
[4]陈时军,马丽.地震活动性统计学方法的若干进展与讨论[J].地震,2002,22(1):32-42.
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