基于概率统计的地震事件公报评估算法

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英文篇名：Seismic event bulletin evaluation based on probability analysis 中文刊名：地震学报 英文刊名：Acta Seismologica Sinica 作者：王海军 ; 王燕 ; 王伟 英文作者：Wang Haijun Wang Yan Wang Wei(CTBT China Beijing National Data Centre ; Beijing 100085 ; China) 中文关键词：地震事件 ; 事件公报 ; 评估 ; 概率 英文关键词：seismic event ; event bulletin ; evaluation ; probability 出版日期：2009-05-15 机构：禁核试北京国家数据中心和放射性核素实验室; 年：2009 期：03 出版单位：地震学报

摘要

给出一种基于概率统计的地震事件公报评估算法.选择事件的发震时间、震中经纬度构造特征函数.当特征函数为正态分布时计算事件匹配概率,选择匹配概率大于90%的事件为匹配事件.将该算法应用于国际数据中心(IDC)自动处理与人工分析公报的比较分析.相对于人工分析结果,IDC数据自动处理的匹配率约为79%,误检率约为52.3%.该算法可应用于地震事件公报的日常对比分析、台网监测能力分析、数据自动处理结果评估等领域.
A seismic event bulletin evaluation algorithm based on probability analysis was proposed.An eigenfunction is constructed with origin time,latitude and longitude of the event.Suppose the eigenfunction obeys a normal distribution,then the event matching probability could be calculated.The events with matching probability greater than 90% were selected as the matching events.Initial application in comparison with IDC SEL3 and IDC REB shows that for automatic processing the event detection ratio is nearly 79% and false detection ratio is about 52.3%.The agorithm developed in this study can be used for routinely comparing event bulletins,and can also be applied to network monitoring capability analysis and automatic data processing evaluation.

引文

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