坠落式危岩体稳定性可靠度判定及参数敏感性分析
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摘要
汶川地震重灾区,由地震触发的地质灾害数量很多,其中危岩体稳定性判定为灾害治理重点工作。基于可靠度理论,针对坠落式危岩体稳定性极限状态特征,建立其可靠度判定概率极限状态方程,并采用现场量测及概率统计方法,对功能函数中危岩破裂面倾角β、危岩等效摩擦角φ、单位长度危岩体重力ω、危岩等效黏聚力c、危岩体高度h等基本变量的均值、变异性及分布形态进行确定。基于以上研究成果,建立了坠落式危岩体稳定性可靠度指标计算方法,同时对各基本变量的可靠度敏感性进行研究,研究结果表明:其敏感性由大到小依次为危岩破裂面倾角β、危岩等效黏聚力c、危岩的高度h、单位长度危岩体重力ω、危岩等效摩擦角φ,研究成果为坠落式危岩体稳定性判定和治理方案设计提供参考依据。
In the harder-hit earthquake areas such as Wenchuan,the constancy of unstable rock is considered as a key work of the disaster control because there are many kinds of geologic hazards caused by the earthquake. This paper is based on the reliability theory and uses the limit state characteristics of falling unstable rocks. It establishes the equation of constancy judging probability limit state. It also determines the mean value,variability and distribution shape of the unstable rock angle β of rupture,the unstable rock angle φ of equivalent internal friction,weight per unit length,equivalent cohesion,height and other basic variables in the functions by means of field measurement and probability statistics. Based on these studies,the paper develops the calculation method of falling unstable rock stability reliability index. At the same time,it studies the parameter sensitivity of each basic variable.The result shows that the variables in descending order from high to low sensitivity are the unstable rock angle β of rupture,the equivalent cohesion,the height,the weight per unit length and the angle φ of equivalent internal friction. The result offers a reference in judging the constancy of unstable rock and designing of a regulation scheme.
In the harder-hit earthquake areas such as Wenchuan,the constancy of unstable rock is considered as a key work of the disaster control because there are many kinds of geologic hazards caused by the earthquake. This paper is based on the reliability theory and uses the limit state characteristics of falling unstable rocks. It establishes the equation of constancy judging probability limit state. It also determines the mean value,variability and distribution shape of the unstable rock angle β of rupture,the unstable rock angle φ of equivalent internal friction,weight per unit length,equivalent cohesion,height and other basic variables in the functions by means of field measurement and probability statistics. Based on these studies,the paper develops the calculation method of falling unstable rock stability reliability index. At the same time,it studies the parameter sensitivity of each basic variable.The result shows that the variables in descending order from high to low sensitivity are the unstable rock angle β of rupture,the equivalent cohesion,the height,the weight per unit length and the angle φ of equivalent internal friction. The result offers a reference in judging the constancy of unstable rock and designing of a regulation scheme.
引文
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Tan X H,Wang J G,Liu X R,et al.2007.Finite element reliabilitycomputation and sensitivity analysis of slope stability[J].ChineseJournal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,26(1):115~122.
Tang H M,Ye S Q,Zhu H,et al.2006.Research on coupling parameterof perilous rock[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics andEngineering,25(1):2642~2649.
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Xu Q,Pei X J,Huang R Q,et al.2009.Large-scale land-slides inducedby the wenchuan earthquake[M].Beijing:Science Press.
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Zhang M.2009.Structural reliability analysis methods and process[M].Beijing:Science Press.
Zhang Y G,Zhang B,Li P,et al.2011.Research on loess slopereliability based on the point estimate method[J].Journal ofEngineering Geology,19(4):615~619.
Zhang Z Y,Wang S T,Wang L S.1994.Principles of engineeringgeology[M].Beijing:Geological Publishing House.
陈春利,邢鲜丽,李萍,等.2011.甘肃黑方台黄土边坡稳定性的可靠度分析[J].工程地质学报,19(4):550~554.
陈洪凯,唐红梅,王蓉,等.2004.三峡库区危岩稳定性计算方法及应用[J].岩石力学与工程学报,23(4):614~619.
崔鹏,何思明,姚令侃,等.2011.汶川地震山地灾害形成机理与风险控制[M].北京:科学出版社.
苟海军,袁继国,何伟,等.2008.三峡库区危岩稳定性影响因素敏感性分析[J].电网与清洁能源,24(2):47~50.
李勇,黄润秋,Densmore A L,等.2009.汶川8.0级地震的基本特征及其研究进展[J].四川大学学报(工程科学版),41(3):7~25.
谭晓慧,王建国,刘新荣,等.2007.边坡稳定的有限元可靠度计算及敏感性分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,26(1):115~122.
唐红梅,叶四桥,祝辉,等.2006.危岩耦合参数研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,25(1):2642~2649.
王林峰,陈洪凯,唐红梅,等.2013.地震作用下坠落式危岩稳定性分析[J].地下空间与工程学报,9(5):1191~1196.
吴世伟.1990.结构可靠度分析[M].北京:人民交通出版社.
许强,裴向军,黄润秋,等.2009.汶川地震大型滑坡研究[M].北京:科学出版社.
严春风,刘东燕,张建辉,等.1999.岩土工程可靠度关于强度参数分布函数概型的敏感度分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,18(1):36~39.
张明.2009.结构可靠度分析方法与程序[M].北京:科学出版社.
张亚国,张波,李萍,等.2011.基于点估计法的黄土边坡可靠度研究[J].工程地质学报,19(4):615~619.
张倬元,王士天,王兰生.1994.工程地质分析原理[M].北京:地质出版社.
Chen H K,Tang H M,Wang R,et al.2004.Calculation method ofstability for unstable rock and application to the three gorgesreservoir[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,23(4):614~619.
Cui P,He S M,Yao L K,et al.2011.Formation mechanism and riskcontrol in Wenchuan earthquake of mountain disasters[M].Beijing:Science Press.
Gou H J,Yuan J G,He W,et al.2008.The sensitivity analysis offactors affecting three gorges reservoir perilous rock belt[J].PowerSystem and Clean Energy,24(2):47~50.
LI Y,Huang R Q,Densmore A L,et al.2009.Basic features andresearch progresses of Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake[J].Journal ofSichuan University(Engineering Science Edition),41(3):7~25.
Liu C H.2002.Reliability validation of multigirder steel bridges designedby LRFD[J].Computers and Structures,80(32):2515~2527.
Tan X H,Wang J G,Liu X R,et al.2007.Finite element reliabilitycomputation and sensitivity analysis of slope stability[J].ChineseJournal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,26(1):115~122.
Tang H M,Ye S Q,Zhu H,et al.2006.Research on coupling parameterof perilous rock[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics andEngineering,25(1):2642~2649.
Wang L F,Chen H K,Tang H M,et al.2013.Stability analysis forfalling perilous rock triggered by earthquake[J].Chinese Journal ofUnderground Space and Engineering,9(5):1191~1196.
Wu S W.1990.Structural reliability analysis[M].Beijing:ChinaCommunications Press.
Xu Q,Pei X J,Huang R Q,et al.2009.Large-scale land-slides inducedby the wenchuan earthquake[M].Beijing:Science Press.
Yan C F,Liu D Y,Zhang J H,et al.1999.The susceptibility analysis ofreliability for the probability distribution types of parameters instrength criterion[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics andEngineering,18(1):36~39.
Zhang M.2009.Structural reliability analysis methods and process[M].Beijing:Science Press.
Zhang Y G,Zhang B,Li P,et al.2011.Research on loess slopereliability based on the point estimate method[J].Journal ofEngineering Geology,19(4):615~619.
Zhang Z Y,Wang S T,Wang L S.1994.Principles of engineeringgeology[M].Beijing:Geological Publishing House.
陈春利,邢鲜丽,李萍,等.2011.甘肃黑方台黄土边坡稳定性的可靠度分析[J].工程地质学报,19(4):550~554.
陈洪凯,唐红梅,王蓉,等.2004.三峡库区危岩稳定性计算方法及应用[J].岩石力学与工程学报,23(4):614~619.
崔鹏,何思明,姚令侃,等.2011.汶川地震山地灾害形成机理与风险控制[M].北京:科学出版社.
苟海军,袁继国,何伟,等.2008.三峡库区危岩稳定性影响因素敏感性分析[J].电网与清洁能源,24(2):47~50.
李勇,黄润秋,Densmore A L,等.2009.汶川8.0级地震的基本特征及其研究进展[J].四川大学学报(工程科学版),41(3):7~25.
谭晓慧,王建国,刘新荣,等.2007.边坡稳定的有限元可靠度计算及敏感性分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,26(1):115~122.
唐红梅,叶四桥,祝辉,等.2006.危岩耦合参数研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,25(1):2642~2649.
王林峰,陈洪凯,唐红梅,等.2013.地震作用下坠落式危岩稳定性分析[J].地下空间与工程学报,9(5):1191~1196.
吴世伟.1990.结构可靠度分析[M].北京:人民交通出版社.
许强,裴向军,黄润秋,等.2009.汶川地震大型滑坡研究[M].北京:科学出版社.
严春风,刘东燕,张建辉,等.1999.岩土工程可靠度关于强度参数分布函数概型的敏感度分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,18(1):36~39.
张明.2009.结构可靠度分析方法与程序[M].北京:科学出版社.
张亚国,张波,李萍,等.2011.基于点估计法的黄土边坡可靠度研究[J].工程地质学报,19(4):615~619.
张倬元,王士天,王兰生.1994.工程地质分析原理[M].北京:地质出版社.
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