地震活动性的自助统计分析及其在河南省及邻区地震预报中的应用
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摘要
引用自助统计分析 ,对华北地区 17次中强地震前地震活动震级分布的离散度自助统计方差σBM值与地震活动的关系进行了分析和研究 ,总结出了中强地震前地震活动离散度自助统计方差σBM值的异常特征。同时 ,把该方法应用到了河南及邻区中等地震预报研究中 ,制定了预报规则 ,进行了预测内符检验和预报评分。结果表明 ,该方法是一种有效的中短期地震预报方法 ,具有推广应用价值
Based on the bootstrap statistical analysis, the relation between the bootstrap statistical variance of the degree of dispersion in the magnitude distribution of seismic activity(the σ BM value)and the earthquake occurrence prior to 17 moderate earthquakes in the North China region is analysed and studied, and the anomalous features of the bootstrap statistical variance of the degree of dispersion in the seismic activity( σ BM )prior to moderate earthquakes are summarized. The method is applied into the earthquake prediction researches of moderate earthquakes in Henan Province and its neighbouring areas. Rules are formulated for earthquake prediction and a prediction grading and a test of prediction efficiency by predicting some previous events are also made. The results show that this method is an effective method for medium-term and short-term earthquake prediction and is worthy of application and dissemination.
Based on the bootstrap statistical analysis, the relation between the bootstrap statistical variance of the degree of dispersion in the magnitude distribution of seismic activity(the σ BM value)and the earthquake occurrence prior to 17 moderate earthquakes in the North China region is analysed and studied, and the anomalous features of the bootstrap statistical variance of the degree of dispersion in the seismic activity( σ BM )prior to moderate earthquakes are summarized. The method is applied into the earthquake prediction researches of moderate earthquakes in Henan Province and its neighbouring areas. Rules are formulated for earthquake prediction and a prediction grading and a test of prediction efficiency by predicting some previous events are also made. The results show that this method is an effective method for medium-term and short-term earthquake prediction and is worthy of application and dissemination.
引文
[1] 蒋 淳,陆远忠,王建国,等.地震活动性中期预报指标研究及其空间图像演化[J].地震,1999,19(1):65-70.
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[3] 秦卫平.一维地震预报评分问题[J].地震学报,1991,13(2):234-242.
[4] 许绍燮.地震预报能力评分[A].国家地震局科技监测司.地震预报方法实用化研究文集-地震学专集[C].北京:学术书刊出版社,1989.586-590.
[2] 蒋 淳,陈化然,吴晓芝.地震活动中短期预测指标研究及其应用[J].华北地震科学,1999,17(3):67-74.
[3] 秦卫平.一维地震预报评分问题[J].地震学报,1991,13(2):234-242.
[4] 许绍燮.地震预报能力评分[A].国家地震局科技监测司.地震预报方法实用化研究文集-地震学专集[C].北京:学术书刊出版社,1989.586-590.
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