油气管道风险分析的质量评价研究
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摘要
从风险分析的不确定性入手,建立了管道风险分析的质量评价观点。基于油气管道风险分析的实施步骤,提出用检查表法对风险分析的完整过程进行质量评价,利用风险评价员的一致性和有效性指标对其评价结果进行质量优劣评定。鉴于油气管道风险分析中普遍采用评分指标法对事故发生概率进行估计,依据采取这种行为所要承担损失风险的大小程度,提出用风险函数法对这种半定量评价法的合理性进行质量评价。实例应用分析表明,本文提出的质量评价方法不仅可以辨识风险分析过程中的人因缺陷,而且可对油气管道风险分析结果的质量进行量化评价,有利于提高人们对风险分析结果的认同度。
The present paper aims to introduce the authors' analysis of the uncertainly of pipeline accidents and magnitude of the damages caused by the accidents.In our study,we start with the uncertainty analysis by establishing the quality evaluation standpoint of the analysis.We suggest that the quality evaluation be carried out on the whole process of risk evaluation by checking the list of risk factors identified to see if the assessment is effective or not by using the reliability of the risk assessment in parallel parameters.Based on the study of the operating steps of oil and gas pipeline risk,the paper applies the Indexing System Method in the oil and gas pipeline risk analysis,and transforms the main issue into the magnitude of risk subjected to this action,the quality evaluation is performed on whether quasi-quantifying evaluation method is reasonable by using risk function method.The analysis of the practical use of our ideas shows that the quality(evaluation) method given here can not only help to identify the defects caused by human factors in the process of risk analysis,but also contribute to general identification of the results gained from the analysis.
The present paper aims to introduce the authors' analysis of the uncertainly of pipeline accidents and magnitude of the damages caused by the accidents.In our study,we start with the uncertainty analysis by establishing the quality evaluation standpoint of the analysis.We suggest that the quality evaluation be carried out on the whole process of risk evaluation by checking the list of risk factors identified to see if the assessment is effective or not by using the reliability of the risk assessment in parallel parameters.Based on the study of the operating steps of oil and gas pipeline risk,the paper applies the Indexing System Method in the oil and gas pipeline risk analysis,and transforms the main issue into the magnitude of risk subjected to this action,the quality evaluation is performed on whether quasi-quantifying evaluation method is reasonable by using risk function method.The analysis of the practical use of our ideas shows that the quality(evaluation) method given here can not only help to identify the defects caused by human factors in the process of risk analysis,but also contribute to general identification of the results gained from the analysis.
引文
[1]Gao Jindong(高进东),Feng Changgen(冯长根)and Wu Zongzhi(吴宗之).Study of the quality evaluation of risk analysis[J].ChinaSafety Science Journal(中国安全科学学报),2001,(2):65~69
[2]Yu Jianxing(余建星),Huang Zhenguang(黄振广),Li Jianhui(李建辉),et al.Study of weights regulation of risk analysis in the study ofrisk assessment method of oil pipeline[J].Offshore Oil and Gas inChina(Engineering)(中国海上油气(工程)),2001,13(5):41~44
[3]Zhang Yongchun(张永春),Lin Yusuo(林玉锁),Sun Qinfang(孙勤芳),et al.Ecological Environment Assessment ofHarmful Waste(废弃物的生态环境评价)[M].Beijing:China Environment SciencePress,2002
[4]Juran J M.Quality Control Handbook[M].3rd ed.New York:McGraw-Hill,l974
[5]Yu Jianxing(余建星),Zhan Qiang(詹强)and Wu Haixin(吴海欣).Study of fatigue destabilization risk assessment method of crossingpipeline[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration(地震工程与工程振动),2001,21(2):58~63
[6]Peng Li(彭力)and Li Faxin(李发新).Hazard Identification andRisk Assessment Technique(危害辨识与风险评价技术)[M].Bei-jing:PetroleumIndustry Press,2001
[7]Komaki J L.Promoting job safety and accident prevention[A].In:Cata1bo MFand Coates TJ,eds.Health andIndustry:ABehavioralMedicine Perspective[C].NewYork:Wiley,1986.30l~319
[8]Guo Zhongwei(郭仲伟).Risk Analysis and Dicision-making(风险分析与决策)[M].Beijing:Mechanical Industry Press,1998
[9]Deng Shuxian(邓书显),Rao Minggui(饶明贵)and Yu Hongxia(于红霞).Optimumrisk verification of statistic picture identification[J].Journal ofShangqiu Normal College(商丘师范学院学报),2002,18(2):74~75
[10]Hu Zigu(胡子谷).Quality Management(质量管理)[M].Shang-hai:Shanghai Jiaotong University Press,2004
[11]Liu Guizhen(刘桂珍)and Gu Lizhi(顾立志).Quality Control(质量控制)[M].Beijing:National Defense Industry Press,2004
[12]Gu Xiaohui(顾晓辉)and Zhao Youshou(赵有守).The study of riskmeasurement based on risk function[J].System Engineering Theoryand Practice(系统工程理论与实践),2002,22(12):54~60
[2]Yu Jianxing(余建星),Huang Zhenguang(黄振广),Li Jianhui(李建辉),et al.Study of weights regulation of risk analysis in the study ofrisk assessment method of oil pipeline[J].Offshore Oil and Gas inChina(Engineering)(中国海上油气(工程)),2001,13(5):41~44
[3]Zhang Yongchun(张永春),Lin Yusuo(林玉锁),Sun Qinfang(孙勤芳),et al.Ecological Environment Assessment ofHarmful Waste(废弃物的生态环境评价)[M].Beijing:China Environment SciencePress,2002
[4]Juran J M.Quality Control Handbook[M].3rd ed.New York:McGraw-Hill,l974
[5]Yu Jianxing(余建星),Zhan Qiang(詹强)and Wu Haixin(吴海欣).Study of fatigue destabilization risk assessment method of crossingpipeline[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration(地震工程与工程振动),2001,21(2):58~63
[6]Peng Li(彭力)and Li Faxin(李发新).Hazard Identification andRisk Assessment Technique(危害辨识与风险评价技术)[M].Bei-jing:PetroleumIndustry Press,2001
[7]Komaki J L.Promoting job safety and accident prevention[A].In:Cata1bo MFand Coates TJ,eds.Health andIndustry:ABehavioralMedicine Perspective[C].NewYork:Wiley,1986.30l~319
[8]Guo Zhongwei(郭仲伟).Risk Analysis and Dicision-making(风险分析与决策)[M].Beijing:Mechanical Industry Press,1998
[9]Deng Shuxian(邓书显),Rao Minggui(饶明贵)and Yu Hongxia(于红霞).Optimumrisk verification of statistic picture identification[J].Journal ofShangqiu Normal College(商丘师范学院学报),2002,18(2):74~75
[10]Hu Zigu(胡子谷).Quality Management(质量管理)[M].Shang-hai:Shanghai Jiaotong University Press,2004
[11]Liu Guizhen(刘桂珍)and Gu Lizhi(顾立志).Quality Control(质量控制)[M].Beijing:National Defense Industry Press,2004
[12]Gu Xiaohui(顾晓辉)and Zhao Youshou(赵有守).The study of riskmeasurement based on risk function[J].System Engineering Theoryand Practice(系统工程理论与实践),2002,22(12):54~60
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