基于FAHP的黄河中下游灾害系统脆性评价
|
摘要
首次将复杂系统的脆性引用到黄河灾害的研究中,并根据复杂系统的层次结构,采用模糊层次分析法(FAHP)对黄河中下游灾害系统进行了分析。由模糊层次分析法求得了灾害子系统的相对重要度排序向量,找出了极易使黄河中下游系统崩溃的脆性因素。结合黄河中下游的现状,通过对系统必要的脆性分析,为决策者提供重要的参考依据。
The brittleness of the complex system is introduced to the study of the disasters of Yellow River for the first time, and according to the hierarchy structures of complex systems, the brittleness of the disasters in the middle and lower reaches of Yellow River are analyzed with the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP). The relative importance degree order vector of the subsystem are obtained with the method of FAHP. The brittleness factors which make the middle and lower reaches system of the Yellow River collapsed are looked for. Combining the present situation of the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and with necessary brittleness analysis of the system, an important reference is given to authority’s decision-making.
The brittleness of the complex system is introduced to the study of the disasters of Yellow River for the first time, and according to the hierarchy structures of complex systems, the brittleness of the disasters in the middle and lower reaches of Yellow River are analyzed with the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP). The relative importance degree order vector of the subsystem are obtained with the method of FAHP. The brittleness factors which make the middle and lower reaches system of the Yellow River collapsed are looked for. Combining the present situation of the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and with necessary brittleness analysis of the system, an important reference is given to authority’s decision-making.
引文
[1]刘成斋.黄河入海口地区的地震数据采集方法[J].石油地球物理勘探,2004,39(1):97-101.
[2]BurtonI,KatersRW,WhiteGF.TheEnvironmentasHazard[M].SecondEdition.NewYork:TheGuilfordPress,1993.
[3]Blaikie,CannonPT,DavisI,WisnerB.Atrisk:natualhazards,people’svulnerability,anddisasters[J].Routledge,London,1994:112-136.
[4]韦琦,金鸿章,郭健.复杂系统崩溃的脆性致因的研究[J].系统工程,2003,19(3):11-13.
[5]SattyTL.TheAnalyticHierarchyProcess[M].NewYork:Mcgraw-Hill,1980.42-53.
[6]SattyTL.Axiomaticfoundationoftheanalytichierarchyprocess[J].ManagementScience,1986,32(7):1-41.
[7]AmacostRL.AnAHPframeworkforprioritizingcustomerrequirementsinQFD:anindustrializedhousingapplication[J].IIETransaction,1994,26(4):72-79.
[8]彭灿,张新辉.模糊AHP法在AMT评价中的应用[J].郑州航空工业管理学院学报,1999,17(4):20-26.
[9]WeberSF.AModifiedanalytichierarchyprocessforautomatedmanufacturingdecisions.Interface,1993,23(4):14-23.
[10]黄崇超,季亚萍,刘为正.一种基于最小二乘的群组AHP方法[J].数学的实践与认识,2003,33(4):46-49.
[11]赵玮,李桂莲.AHP的扩展及应用[J].数学的实践与认识,1997,27(2):165-180.
[12]VanPJ.AarhovenM,PedryczW.AFuzzyextensionofsaaty’sprioritytheory[J].FuzzySetsandSystems,1993,11(3):229-241.
[13]卜祥智.面向敏捷供应链管理的战略伙伴选择问题初探[J].西南交通大学学报,2004,39(2):27-31
[14]常大勇,张丽丽.经济管理中的模糊数学方法[M].北京经济学院出版社,1995.136-150.
[15]金鸿章,郭健,韦琦.基于尖点突变模型对复杂系统脆性问题的研究[J].舰船电子工程,2004,24(2):7-3.
[16]WeiQ,JinHZ,JiM.Thereasearchonbrittlecatastropheofcomplexgiantsystem[A].IEEEregion10technicalconferenceoncomputers,com munication,controlandpowerengineering(TENCON’02)[C].Beijing,China,October7～11,2002.
[17]李殿魁,杨玉珍,等.延长黄河口清水沟流路行水年限的研究[M].郑州:黄河水利出版社,2002.239-243.
[18]丁大发,汪习文,等.黄河下游溃堤洪水灾害与减灾对策研究[J].人民黄河,2003,25(3):22-23.
[19]张绪良.山东省海洋灾害及防治研究[J].海洋通报,2004,23(3):66-72.
[20]倪晋仁,李秀霞,等.泥沙灾害链及其在灾害过程规律研究中的应用[J].自然灾害学报,2004,13(5):1-9.
[21]陈新民,罗国煜,等.黄河下游悬河决口灾害的风险评价[J].工程技术,2000,(2):32-34.
[22]中国科学院学部.关于缓解黄河断流的对策与建议[Z].中国水利学会网,2003.
[23]姜璐.复杂系统的层次结构[J].自然辩证法研究,1994,10(2):16-21.
[24]金鸿章,闫丽梅,徐建军.基于FAHP的复杂系统的脆性过程分析[J].系统工程,2004,22(6):1-4.
[2]BurtonI,KatersRW,WhiteGF.TheEnvironmentasHazard[M].SecondEdition.NewYork:TheGuilfordPress,1993.
[3]Blaikie,CannonPT,DavisI,WisnerB.Atrisk:natualhazards,people’svulnerability,anddisasters[J].Routledge,London,1994:112-136.
[4]韦琦,金鸿章,郭健.复杂系统崩溃的脆性致因的研究[J].系统工程,2003,19(3):11-13.
[5]SattyTL.TheAnalyticHierarchyProcess[M].NewYork:Mcgraw-Hill,1980.42-53.
[6]SattyTL.Axiomaticfoundationoftheanalytichierarchyprocess[J].ManagementScience,1986,32(7):1-41.
[7]AmacostRL.AnAHPframeworkforprioritizingcustomerrequirementsinQFD:anindustrializedhousingapplication[J].IIETransaction,1994,26(4):72-79.
[8]彭灿,张新辉.模糊AHP法在AMT评价中的应用[J].郑州航空工业管理学院学报,1999,17(4):20-26.
[9]WeberSF.AModifiedanalytichierarchyprocessforautomatedmanufacturingdecisions.Interface,1993,23(4):14-23.
[10]黄崇超,季亚萍,刘为正.一种基于最小二乘的群组AHP方法[J].数学的实践与认识,2003,33(4):46-49.
[11]赵玮,李桂莲.AHP的扩展及应用[J].数学的实践与认识,1997,27(2):165-180.
[12]VanPJ.AarhovenM,PedryczW.AFuzzyextensionofsaaty’sprioritytheory[J].FuzzySetsandSystems,1993,11(3):229-241.
[13]卜祥智.面向敏捷供应链管理的战略伙伴选择问题初探[J].西南交通大学学报,2004,39(2):27-31
[14]常大勇,张丽丽.经济管理中的模糊数学方法[M].北京经济学院出版社,1995.136-150.
[15]金鸿章,郭健,韦琦.基于尖点突变模型对复杂系统脆性问题的研究[J].舰船电子工程,2004,24(2):7-3.
[16]WeiQ,JinHZ,JiM.Thereasearchonbrittlecatastropheofcomplexgiantsystem[A].IEEEregion10technicalconferenceoncomputers,com munication,controlandpowerengineering(TENCON’02)[C].Beijing,China,October7～11,2002.
[17]李殿魁,杨玉珍,等.延长黄河口清水沟流路行水年限的研究[M].郑州:黄河水利出版社,2002.239-243.
[18]丁大发,汪习文,等.黄河下游溃堤洪水灾害与减灾对策研究[J].人民黄河,2003,25(3):22-23.
[19]张绪良.山东省海洋灾害及防治研究[J].海洋通报,2004,23(3):66-72.
[20]倪晋仁,李秀霞,等.泥沙灾害链及其在灾害过程规律研究中的应用[J].自然灾害学报,2004,13(5):1-9.
[21]陈新民,罗国煜,等.黄河下游悬河决口灾害的风险评价[J].工程技术,2000,(2):32-34.
[22]中国科学院学部.关于缓解黄河断流的对策与建议[Z].中国水利学会网,2003.
[23]姜璐.复杂系统的层次结构[J].自然辩证法研究,1994,10(2):16-21.
[24]金鸿章,闫丽梅,徐建军.基于FAHP的复杂系统的脆性过程分析[J].系统工程,2004,22(6):1-4.
版权所有：© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心