引文
[1]Lipman P W.Natural hazards[J].Nature,1993,365(6449):795.
[2]Kates R W,Clark C W,Corell R,et al.Sustainability science[J].Science,2001,292(5517):641-642.
[3]Mileti D S.Disasters by Design:A Reassessment of Natural Hazards in the United States[M].Washington: Joseph Henry Press,1999.
[4]Cornell C A.Engineering seismic risk analysis[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1968,58(5): 1583-1606.
[5]Aoudia A,Vaccari F,Suhadolc P.Seismogenic potential and earthquake hazard assessment in the Tell Atlas of Algeria[J].Journal of Seismology,2000,4(1):79-98.
[6]Bouhadad Y,Laouami N.Earthquake hazard assessment in the Oran Region(Northwest Algeria)[J].Natural Hazards,2002,26(3):227-243.
[7]Pavlenko O V,Wen K L.Estimation of nonlinear soil behavior during the 1999 Chi-Chi,Taiwan,Earthquake[J]. Pure and Applied Geophysics,2008,165(2):373-407.
[8]Parvez I A,Ram A.Probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazards in the Indian subcontinent[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,1999,154(1):23-40.
[9]Burbidge D,Cummins P.Assessing the threat to Western Australia from tsunami generated by earthquakes along the Sunda[J].Arc Natural Hazards,2007,43(3):319-331.
[10]Pitilakis K,Alexoudi M,Argyroudis S,et al.Earthquake risk assessment of lifelines[J].Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering,2006,4(4):365-390.
[11]French S P,Muthukumar S.Advanced technologies for earthquake risk inventories[J].Journal of Earthquake Engineering,2006,10(2):207-236.
[12]Spence R,So E,et al.The global earthquake vulnerability estimation system(GEVES):An approach for earthquakerisk assessment for insurance applications[J].Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering,2008,6(3):463- 483.
[13]Bruneau M S,Chang R,Eguchi G,et al.A framework to quantitatively assess and enhance seismic resilience of communities[J].Earthquake Spectra,2003,19(4):733-752.
[14]Athukorala P,Resosudarmo B P.The Indian Ocean tsunami:Economic impact,disaster management and lessons[J].Asian Economic Papers,2005,4(1):1-39.
[15]Kuribayashi E.Preventive measures for urban lifelines during earthquake disasters[J].Japanese Scientific Monthly, 1986,39(11):13-18.
[16]Brookshire D S,Chang S E,Cochrane H,et al.Direct and indirect economic losses from earthquake damage[J]. Earthquake Spectra,1997,13(4):683-701.
[17]Ellson R W,Milliman J W,Roberts R B.Measuring the regional economic effects of earthquakes and earthquake predictions[J].Journal of Regional Science,1984,24(4):559-579.
[18]Kajitani Y,Tatano H,Okada N.Long-term effects of the Hyogo Nanbu Earthquake on economic activities at the port of Kobe:Time series analysis[C]//Proceedings of the Second EuroConference on Global Change and Catastrophe Risk Management:Earthquake Risks in Europe,IIASA,2000,Laxenburg,Austria.
[19]Rose A,Benavides J,Chang S E,et al.The regional economic impact of an earthquake:Direct and indirect effects of electricity lifeline disruptions[J].Journal of Regional Science,1997,37(3):437-458.
[20]Murdoch J C,Singh H,Thayer M.The impact of natural hazards on housing values:The Loma Prieta Earthquake [J].Real Estate Economics,1993,21(2):167-184.
[21]Bertalanffy L.General System Theory[M].New York:George Breziller,Inc,1973.
[22]钱学森,于景元,戴汝为.一个科学新领域——开放的复杂巨系统及其方法论[J].自然杂志,1990,13(1):3-10. Qian X S,Yu J Y,Dai R W.A new discipline of science:The study of open complex giant system and its methodology[J].Nature Magazine,1990,13(1):3-10.
[23]于景元.钱学森的现代科学技术体系与综合集成方法论[J].中国工程科学,2001,3(11):10-18. Yu J Y.Qian Xuesen's contemporary system of science and technology and meta-synthesis[J].Engineering Science, 2001,3(11):10-18.
[24]Olson E L,Allen R M.The deterministic nature of earthquake rupture[J].Nature,2005,438(7065):212-215.
[25]Burton I,Kates R W,White G F.The Environment as Hazard[M].New York:Guilford Press,1993.
[26]Blaikie P T,Cannon I D,Wisher B.At Risk:Natural Hazards,People's Vulnerability,and Disasters[M].London: Routledge,1994.
[27]Geller R J,Jackson D D,et al.Earthquakes cannot be predicted[J].Science,1997,275(5306):1616-1617.
[28]陈运泰.地震预测——进展、困难与前景[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2007,28(2):1-24. Chen Y T.Earthquake prediction:Progress,difficulties and prospect[J].Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research,2007,28(2):1-24.
[29]徐玖平,卢毅.地震灾后重建系统工程的综合集成模式[J].系统工程理论与实践,2008,28(7):1-16. Xu J P,Lu Y.Meta-synthesis pattern of systems engineering of post-earthquake reconstructions[J].Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice,2008,28(7):1-16.
[30]于景元,周晓纪.从定性到定量综合集成方法的实现和应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,2002,22(10):26-32. Yu J Y,Zhou X J.The realization and application of meta-synthesis[J].Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice,2002,22(10):26-32.
[31]于景元,刘毅,马昌超.关于复杂性研究[J].系统仿真学报,2002,14(11):1417-1424. Yu J Y,Liu Y,Ma C C.Study on the complexity[J].Acta Simulata Systematica Sinica,2002,14(11):1417-1424.
[32]钱学森.创建系统学[M].太原:山西科技出版社,2001. Qian X S.Creating Systems Science[M].Taiyuan:Shanxi Science and Technology Press,2001.
[33]戴汝为,李耀东.基于综合集成的研讨厅体系与系统复杂性[J].复杂系统与复杂性科学,2004,1(4):2-24. Dai R W,Li Y D.Researches on hall for workshop of metasynthetic engineering and system complexity[J]. Complex Systems and Complexity Science,2004,1(4):1-24.
[34]戴汝为.人-机结合的智能工程系统——处理开放的复杂巨系统的可操作平台[J].模式识别与人工智能,2004,17(3): 257-261. Dai R W.Man-computer cooperated intelligent engineering system:A management platform for dealing with OCGS[J].Pattern Recognition and Artificial Intelligence,2004,17(3):257-261.
[35]陈运泰,许力生,张勇,等.2008年5月12日汶川特大地震震源特性分析报告[R].中国地震局地球物理所,2008.05. Chen Y T,Xu L S,Zhang Y,et al.Analysis report on characters of sources of Wenchuan Earthquake,May 12, 2008[R].Institute of Geophysics,China Earthquake Administration,2008-05.
[36]Wang Z.A preliminary report on the Great Wenchuan Earthquake[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,2008,7(2):225-234.
[37]Stone R.Sichuan disaster:Landslides,flooding pose threats as experts survey quake's impact[J].Science,2008, 320(5879):996-997.
[38]Burchfiel B C,Royden L H,Hils van dert R D,et al.A geological and geophysical context for the Wenchuan earthquake of 12 May 2008,Sichuan,People's Republic of China[J].GSA Today,2008,18(7):4-11.
[39]Kaneda H,Nakata T,Tsutsumi H,et al.Surface rupture of the 2005 Kashmir,Pakistan,earthquake and its active tectonic implications[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,2008,98(2):521-557.
[40]Sathar Z A,Mahmood A.Earthquake vulnerability assessment:Pakistan 2005-2006[R].Pakistan:The Popula- tion Council,2007.
[41]Maqsood S T,Schwarz J.Analysis of building damage during the 8 October 2005 Earthquake in Pakistan[J]. Seismological Research Letters,2008,79(2):163-177.
[42]EERI Reconnaissance Team.The Kashmir Earthquake of October 8,2005 impacts in Pakistan[R].EERI Special Earthquake Report,2006.
[43]Parsons T,Yeats R S,Yagi Y,et al.Static stress change from the 8 October,2005 M=7.6 Kashmir earthquake[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2006,33:1-4.
[44]Stein S,Okal E.Speed and size of the Sumatra earthquake[J].Nature,2005,434(7033):891-892.
[45]Lay T,Kanamori H,Ammon C,et al.The great Sumatra-Andaman earthquake of 26 December 2004[J].Science, 2005,308(5725):1127-1133.
[46]Vigny C,Simons W J F,Abu S,et al.Insight into the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake from GPS measurements in southeast Asia[J].Nature,2005,436(7048):201-206.
[47]Srinivas H,Nakagawa Y.Environmental implications for disaster preparedness:Lessons learnt from the Indian Ocean Tsunami[J].Journal of Environmental Management,2008,89(1):4-13.
[48]Brennan R J.Rapid health assessment in Aceh Jaya District,Indonesia,following the December 26 tsunami[J]. Emergency Medicine Australasia,2005,17(4):341-350.
[49]Ishii M,Shearer P M,Houston H,et al.Extent,duration and speed of the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake imaged by the Hi-Net array[J].Nature,2005,435(7041):933-936.
[50]Ammon C J,Ji C,Thio H K,et al.Rupture process of the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake[J].Science, 2005,308(5725):1133-1139.
[51]Babu G L S,Srivastava A,Sahana V.Analysis of stability of earthen dams in Kachchh region,Gujarat,India[J]. Engineering Geology,2007,94(3-4):123-136.
[52]Pitarka A,Graves R,Somerville P.Validation of a 3D velocity model of the Puget sound region based on modeling ground motion from the 28 February 2001 Nisqually Earthquake[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,2004,94(5):1670-1689.
[53]Negishi H,Mori J,et al.Size and orientation of the fault plane for the 2001 Gujarat,India earthquake(Mw7.7) from aftershock observations:A high stress drop event[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2002,29(20):1-4.
[54]Lahiri A K,Sen T K,Rao R K,et al.Economic Consequences of the Gujarat Earthquake[M].New Delhi: National Institute of Public Finance and Policy,2001.
[55]Garcia-Rodriguez M J,Malpica J A,Benito B,et al.Susceptibility assessment of earthquake-triggered landslides in E1 Salvador using logistic regression[J].Geomorphology,2008,95(3):172-191.
[56]Zapata R.ECLAC:Summary of the damage caused by the earthquakes of 13 January and 13 February in E1 Salvador[J].ISDR Informs,2001,3:12-17.
[57]Yoshimura K,Kuroki M.Damage to masonry buildings caused by the El Salvador earthquake of January 13, 2001[J].Journal of Natural Disaster Science,2001,23(2):53-63.
[58]Vazquez C,Cervellon P,Perez-Sales P,et al.Positive emotions in earthquake survivors in El Salvador(2001)[J]. Journal of Anxiety Disorders,2005,19(3):313-328.
[59]Vallee M,Bouchon M,Schwartz S Y.The 13 January 2001 E1 Salvador earthquake:A multi data analysis[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research,2003,108(B4):25-44.
[60]Ma K F,Tanaka H,Song S R,et al.Slip zone and energetics of a large earthquake from the Taiwan Chelungpufault Drilling Project[J].Nature,2006,444(7118):473-476.
[61]Shin T C,Teng T.An overview of the 1999 Chi-Chi,Taiwan,earthquake[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,2001,91(5):895-913.
[62]Shin T C,Kuo K W,Lee W H,et al.A preliminary report on the 1999 Chi-Chi(Taiwan) earthquake[J]. Seismological Research Letters,2000,71(1):23-29.
[63]Lin M L,Tung C C.A GIS-based potential analysis of the landslides induced by the Chi-Chi earthquake[J]. Engineering Geology,2004,71(1-2):63-77.
[64]Christopoulos C,Garcia D L,Tsai K C.Educational reconnaissance of the area affected by the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake-Three years later[J].Earthquake Spectra,2005,21(1):31-52.
[65]Stein R S,Barka A A,Dieterich J H.Progressive failure on the North Anatolian fault since 1939 by earthquake stress triggering[J].Geophysical Journal International,1997,128(3):594-604.
[66]selcuk F,Yeldan E.On the macroeconomic impact of the August 1999 earthquake in Turkey:A first assessment [J].Applied Economics Letters,2001,8(7):483-488.
[67]Kasapoglu A,Ecevit M.Impact of the 1999 East Marmara earthquake in Turkey[J].Population & Environment, 2003,24(4):339-358.
[68]Kilic C,Ulusoy M.Psychological effects of the November 1999 earthquake in Turkey:An epidemiological study[J]. Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica,2003,108(3):232-238.
[69]Hubert-Ferrari A,Barka A,Jacques E,et al.Seismic hazard in the Marmara Sea region following the 17 August 1999 Izmit earthquake[J].Nature,2000,404(6775):269-273.
[70]Huang Q.Characteristics of the seismic quiescence and activation patterns before the M=7.2 Kobe earthquake, January 17,1995[J].Tectonophysics,2001,337(1-2):99-116.
[71]Gotoh T,Nishimura T,Nakata M,et al.Air pollution by concrete dust from the great Hanshin earthquake[J]. Journal of Environmental Quality,2002,31(3):718-723.
[72]Ikeda K.Assessment of the total damage caused by the Hanshin-Awaji earthquake[J].Municipal Problems,1999, 90(1):91-103.
[73]Kuwagata Y,Oda J,Tanaka H,et al.Analysis of 2702 traumatized patients in the 1995 Hanshin-Awaji earthquake [J].The Journal of Trauma:Injury,Infection,and Critical Care,1997,43(3):427-432.
[74]Cho I,Kanjo K.The source mechanism of the Hyogo-ken Nanbu earthquake of January 17,1995[J].Journal of Natural Disaster Science,1995,16(3):21-29.
[75]Muguruma H,Nishiyama M,Watanabe F.Lessons learned from the Kobe earthquake:A Japanese perspective[J]. PCI Journal,1995,40(4):28-42.
[76]Field E H,Johnson P A,Beresnev I A.Nonlinear ground-motion amplification by sediments during the 1994 Northridge earthquake[J].Nature,1997,390(6660):599-602.
[77]Ward S N.A multidisciplinary approach to seismic hazard in southern California[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1994,84(5):1293-1309.
[78]Eguchi R T,Goltz J,Taylor C,et al.Direct economic losses in the Northridge earthquake:A three year post-event perspective[J].Earthquake Spectra,1998,14(2):245-264.
[79]Eguchi R T,Goltz J D,et al.Real-time loss estimation as an emergency response decision support system;the early post-earthquake damage assessment tool(EPEDAT)[J].Earthquake Spectra,1997,13(4):815-833.
[80]Brookshire D S,Chang S E,Cochrane H,et al.Direct and indirect economic losses from earthquake damage[J]. Earthquake Spectra,1997,13(4):683-701.
[81]Goltz J D.Use of loss estimates by government agencies in the Northridge earthquake for response and recovery[J]. Earthquake Spectra,1996,12(3):441-455.
[82]Cisternas A,Philip H,Bousquet J C.The Spitak(Armenia) earthquake of 7 December 1988:Field observations, seismology and tectonics[J].Nature,1989,339(6227):675-679.
[83]Philip H,Rogozhin E,Cisternas A,et al.The Armenian earthquake of 1988 December 7:Faulting and folding, neotectonics and palaeoseismicity[J].Geophysical Journal International,1992,110(1):141-158.
[84]Hadjian A H.The Spitak,Armenia earthquake of 7 December 1988-Why so much destruction[J].Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering,1993,12(1):1-24.
[85]Pynoos R S,Goenjian A,Tashjian M,et al.Post-traumatic stress reactions in children after the 1988 Armenian earthquake[J].The British Journal of Psychiatry 1993,163(8):239-247.
[86]Kikuchi M,Kanamori H,Satake K.Source complexity of the 1988 Armenian earthquake-Evidence for a slow after-slip event[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,1993,98(B9):15797-15808.
[87]Ekstrom G,Dziewonski A M.A very broad band analysis of the Michoacan,Mexico,earthquake of September 19,1985[J].Geophysical Research Letters,1986,13(6):605-608.
[88]Norena F,Castaneda C,Iglesias J.The Mexico earthquake of September 19,1985-Evaluation of the seismic capacity of buildings in Mexico city[J].Earthquake Spectra,1989,5(1):19-24.
[89]Smolka A,Berz G.The Mexico earthquake of September 19,1985-An analysis of the insured loss and implications for risk assessment[J].Earthquake Spectra,1989,5(1):223-248.
[90]Degg M R.Earthquake hazard assessment after Mexico(1985)[J].Disasters,1989,13(3):237-246.
[91]Zapata R.ECLAC:Impact assessment of the earthquake of Colima,Mexico[J].ISDR Informs:A Magazine for Latin America and the Caribbean,2003(7):16-17.
[92]Robinson R,Zhou S.Stress interactions within the Tangshan,China,earthquake sequence of 1976[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,2005,95(6):2501-2505.
[93]Butler R,Stewart G S,Kanamori H.The July 27,1976 Tangshan,China earthquake-A complex sequence of intraplate events[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1979,69(1):207-220.
[94]李建华,郝书俭,胡玉台.1976年唐山7.8级地震孕育的构造环境[J].地震学报,1998,20(5):466-472. Li J H,Hao S J,Hu Y T.Tectonic setting of the seismogeny of the 1976 Tangshan,China M=7.8 earthquake[J]. Acta Seismologica Sinica,1998,20(5):466-472.
[95]赵振东,郑向远,钟江荣.地震人员伤亡的动态评估[J].地震工程与工程振动,1994,19(4):149-156. Zhao Z D,Zheng X Y,Zhong J R.Dynamic method of assessing seismic casualties[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,1994,19(4):149-156.
[96]Cai Y,He T,Wang R.Numerical simulation of dynamic process of the Tangshan earthquake by a new method -LDDA[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,2000,157,(11-12):2083-2104.
[97]Kobayashi R,Koketsu K.Source process of the 1923 Kanto earthquake inferred from historical geodetic,teleseismic, and strong motion data[J].Earth Planets Space,2005,57(4):261-270.
[98]Wald D J,Somerville P G.Variable-slip rupture model of the great 1923 Kanto,Japan,earthquake:Geodetic and body-waveform analysis[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1995,85(1):159-177.
[99]Stein R S,Toda S,Parsons T,et al.A new probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for greater Tokyo[J]. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London Series A,2006,364(1845):1965-1988.
[100]Midorikawa S.Importance of damage data from destructive earthquakes forseismic microzoning damage distribution during the 1923 Kanto,Japan,earthquake[J].Annals of Geophysics,2002,45(6):769-778.
[101]Jaggar T A.The Yokohama-Tokyo earthquake of September 1,1923[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1923,13(4):124-146.