全球5.0级以上地震活动与地球自转变化的Granger因果关系检验
|
摘要
采用国际地球自转服务中心(IERS)发布的日长变化(Length of the Day,LOD)数据和美国国家地震信息中心(NEIC)公布的地震目录中的震级在5.0级(含5.0级)以上的地震数据,对1973年以来的每日地球自转变化时间序列与地震时间序列之间的Granger因果关系进行检验,结果表明:地球自转变化与地震之间存在着双向Granger因果关系,即地球自转变化可能导致地震发生,地震也会对地球自转变化产生影响,检验结果暗示了两者之间可能存在着复杂的动力机制。
Using the Length of the Day from the EOP C04 data provided by the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS),and the time series data of the earthquakes whose magnitudes are 5.0 or more than 5.0 from 1973 to 2008 provided by the National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC),this paper gives an analysis of the Granger causality between the changes of the Earth's rotation and the global earthquakes. Granger causality tests show that there is indeed a two-directional causal relationship between the changes of the Earth rotation and the earthquakes:one direction is that the changes of the Earth's rotation may trigger the earthquakes,and the other is that the earthquake may induce the changes of the Earth's rotation. This testing result implies that there probably exists a much complex excitation mechanism between the Earth's rotation and the earthquakes.
Using the Length of the Day from the EOP C04 data provided by the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS),and the time series data of the earthquakes whose magnitudes are 5.0 or more than 5.0 from 1973 to 2008 provided by the National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC),this paper gives an analysis of the Granger causality between the changes of the Earth's rotation and the global earthquakes. Granger causality tests show that there is indeed a two-directional causal relationship between the changes of the Earth rotation and the earthquakes:one direction is that the changes of the Earth's rotation may trigger the earthquakes,and the other is that the earthquake may induce the changes of the Earth's rotation. This testing result implies that there probably exists a much complex excitation mechanism between the Earth's rotation and the earthquakes.
引文
[1]Du P R,Xu D Y.The Introduction of Astroseismology[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,1989:71-82(in Chinese).
[2]Li Q B,Xiao X H,Li Z S.Apri mary analysis of the relation between the strong earthquake in China s continent and long termvariation of the Earth s rotation rate[J].Chinese Jour-nal of Geophysics,1973,16(2):71-80(in Chinese).
[3]Anderson D L.Earthquake and the rotation of the Earth[J].Science,1974,doi:10.1126/science.186.4158.49.
[4]An O.Relation between the global strong earthquake activi-ties and the Earth s rotation rate[J].North China Earth-quake Science,1985,3(1):56-67(in Chinese).
[5]Ji H Q,You S R.Relation between the Earth s rotation rate variation and the energy of global shallow and deep earth-quake and their mechanical relation[J].Chinese Astronomy,1988,29(4):326-332(in Chinese).
[6]Zheng D W,Zhou Y H.The study of Earth s rotation and activities of global earthquake[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,1995,17(1):25-30(in Chinese).
[7]Kamal N,Manshinha L.The triggering of aftershocks by the free oscillation of the Earth[J].BSSA,1996,86(2):299-305.
[8]Gu Z N.Analyses onthe variation of the Earth s rotation rate induced by the earthquake[J].Astronomical Research&Technology,1997,2:61-67(in Chinese).
[9]Ma Z J,Du P R.Orientational migration of earthquakes and droughts andformation mechanism[J].Quaternary Sciences,1999,19(5):397-402(in Chinese).
[10]Hu H,Li X M.Analysis of astronomical characteristics of major earthquakesin China[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,1999,8(1):30-34(in Chinese).
[11]Han Y B,Guo Z J,Zhao J,et al.Variation of the Earth s rotation and large earthquakes in the West of China[J].Re-cent Developments in World Seismology,2003,6:1-5(in Chinese).
[12]Fu Z X,Shao HC,Ding X.Relation between distribution of shallowstrong earthquake in China s continent and the earth rotation rate variation[J].Earthquake,2004,24(3):15-20(in Chinese).
[13]Bo WJ,Wang G Y.Researches on relations among earth ro-tation:Fault deformation and seismicity[J].Journal of Geod-esy and Geodynamics,2006,26(2):43-47(in Chinese).
[14]Ma L H,Han Y B,Yin Z Q.Distribution characteristics of global significant earthquakes and possible connection be-tween earthquakes and Earth s variable rotation rate[J].As-tronomical Research&Technology,2007,4(4):406-411(in Chinese).
[15]Han Y B,Ma L H,Zhao HY,et al.Ti me variation of inter-decade periodic components of the Earth s rotation rate[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2003,12(4):29-33(in Chi-nese).
[16]Zhang H W,Xu HZ,Zheng Y,et al.Researchfor astrogeo-dynamical effects of the Earth s rotation variation of gravita-tional potential and gravity[J].Chinese Journal Geophysics,2002,17(3):424-429(in Chinese).
[17]Hopkin M.Sumatran quake sped up Earth s rotation[J].Na-ture,2004,doi:10.1038/news041229-6.
[18]Gross R S,Chao B F.The rotational and gravitational signa-ture of the December26,2004Sumatran earthquake[J].Surv Geophys,2006,27:615-632.
[19]Ohta K J,Onoda S Z,Hirose K,et al.The electrical con-ductivity of post-perovskite in Earth s D″layer[J].Science,2008,320:89-91.
[20]Granger C W.Investigating causality relations by economic models and cross spectral methods[J].Econometrics,1969,37:424-438.
[21]Kauf mann R K,Stern DI.Evidence for human influence on cli mate from hemispheric temperature relations[J].Nature,1997,388:39-44.
[22]Wang S,Sun L C,Gan G Z.Application research based on Granger causality test for attack detection[J].Computer Ap-plications,2005,25(6):1282-1285(in Chinese).
[23]Wang L P,Long Z H.Analysis of testing methods of causali-ty based on the theory of co-integration[J].Journal of Hefei University of Technology:Natural Sciences Edition,2005,28(4):430-434(in Chinese).
[24]Gujarati D N.Econometrics[M].Beijing:Chinese Renmin University Press,2002:613-615(in Chinese).
[25]LL S.The tentative application of the Earth Systems Sci-ence to the interpretation of the2004Earthquake Tsunami in the Indian Ocean[J].Acta Geoscientia Sinica,2007,28(2):209-217(in Chinese).
[26]Ma L H,Han Y B,Liao D C.Study progress of wavelet transformapplying in length-of-day change[J].Progress in Geophysics,2007,22(4):1075-1079(in Chinese).
[27]Ma L H,Han Y B,Liao D C.50-day oscillation of length-of-day change[J].Earth,Moon,and Planets,2008,doi:10.1007/s11038-008-9230-6.
[28]Ding Y R,Wang X Y.The120-day fluctuation of the Earth rotation:True or false[J]?Journal of Nanjing University:Natural Sciences Edition,1994,30(2):217-225(in Chi-nese).
[29]Chao B F,Gross RS.Changesinthe Earth s rotation energy induced by earthquakes[J].Geophys J Int,1995,122:776-783.
[1]杜品仁,徐道一.天文地震引论[M].北京:地震出版社,1989:71-82.
[2]李启斌,肖兴华,李致森.中国大陆强地震与地球自转角速度长期变化关系的初步分析[J].地球物理学报,1973,16(2):71-80.
[4]安欧.全球大震活动与地球自转速率的关系[J].华北地震科学,1985,3(1):56-67.
[5]季洪钦,尤淑如.地球自转不均匀性与全球中震、深震能量的相关分析及其力学关系[J].天文学报,1988,29(4):326-332.
[6]郑大伟,周永宏.地球自转变化与全球地震活动关系的研究[J].地震学报,1995,17(1):25-30.
[8]顾震年.地震引起地球自转速率变化的分析[J].云南天文台台刊,1997,2:61-67.
[9]马宗晋,杜品仁.地震和干旱的定向迁移及其机制[J].第四纪研究,1999,19(5):397-402.
[10]胡辉,李晓明.中国大地震的天文特征分析[J].自然灾害学报,1999,8(1):30-34.
[11]韩延本,郭增建,赵娟,等.地球自转速率变化与中国西部的大地震[J].国际地震动态,2003,6:1-5.
[12]傅征祥,邵辉成,丁香.中国大陆浅源强震分布与地球自转速率变化的关系[J].地震,2004,24(3):15-20.
[13]薄万举,王广余.地球自转、断层形变与地震活动关系研究[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2006,26(2):43-47.
[14]马利华,韩延本,尹志强.全球强震的分布及其与地球自转速率变化的关系[J].天文研究与技术(国家天文台台刊),2007,4(4):406-411.
[15]韩延本,马利华,赵海燕,等.地球自转速率年代际周期分量的时变特性[J].自然灾害学报,2003,12(4):29-33.
[16]张捍卫,许厚泽,郑勇,等.地球自转的天文地球动力学效应研究———引力位和重力的变化[J].地球物理学报,2002,17(3):424-429.
[22]汪生,孙乐昌,干国政.Granger因果关系检验在攻击检测中的应用研究[J].计算机应用,2005,25(6):1282-1285.
[23]王立平,龙志和.基于Granger原因的因果关系检验方法评析[J].合肥工业大学学报:自然科学版,2005,28(4):430-434.
[24]Gujarati D N.计量经济学[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2002:613-615.
[25]吕林素.试用地球系统科学观解读2004年印度洋地震海啸[J].地球学报,2007,28(2):209-217.
[26]马利华,韩延本,廖德春.小波变换应用于日长变化的研究进展[J].地球物理学进展,2007,22(4):1075-1079.
[28]丁月蓉,王小亚.地球自转中的120天波动存在吗[J]?南京大学学报:自然科学版,1994,30(2):217-225.
[2]Li Q B,Xiao X H,Li Z S.Apri mary analysis of the relation between the strong earthquake in China s continent and long termvariation of the Earth s rotation rate[J].Chinese Jour-nal of Geophysics,1973,16(2):71-80(in Chinese).
[3]Anderson D L.Earthquake and the rotation of the Earth[J].Science,1974,doi:10.1126/science.186.4158.49.
[4]An O.Relation between the global strong earthquake activi-ties and the Earth s rotation rate[J].North China Earth-quake Science,1985,3(1):56-67(in Chinese).
[5]Ji H Q,You S R.Relation between the Earth s rotation rate variation and the energy of global shallow and deep earth-quake and their mechanical relation[J].Chinese Astronomy,1988,29(4):326-332(in Chinese).
[6]Zheng D W,Zhou Y H.The study of Earth s rotation and activities of global earthquake[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,1995,17(1):25-30(in Chinese).
[7]Kamal N,Manshinha L.The triggering of aftershocks by the free oscillation of the Earth[J].BSSA,1996,86(2):299-305.
[8]Gu Z N.Analyses onthe variation of the Earth s rotation rate induced by the earthquake[J].Astronomical Research&Technology,1997,2:61-67(in Chinese).
[9]Ma Z J,Du P R.Orientational migration of earthquakes and droughts andformation mechanism[J].Quaternary Sciences,1999,19(5):397-402(in Chinese).
[10]Hu H,Li X M.Analysis of astronomical characteristics of major earthquakesin China[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,1999,8(1):30-34(in Chinese).
[11]Han Y B,Guo Z J,Zhao J,et al.Variation of the Earth s rotation and large earthquakes in the West of China[J].Re-cent Developments in World Seismology,2003,6:1-5(in Chinese).
[12]Fu Z X,Shao HC,Ding X.Relation between distribution of shallowstrong earthquake in China s continent and the earth rotation rate variation[J].Earthquake,2004,24(3):15-20(in Chinese).
[13]Bo WJ,Wang G Y.Researches on relations among earth ro-tation:Fault deformation and seismicity[J].Journal of Geod-esy and Geodynamics,2006,26(2):43-47(in Chinese).
[14]Ma L H,Han Y B,Yin Z Q.Distribution characteristics of global significant earthquakes and possible connection be-tween earthquakes and Earth s variable rotation rate[J].As-tronomical Research&Technology,2007,4(4):406-411(in Chinese).
[15]Han Y B,Ma L H,Zhao HY,et al.Ti me variation of inter-decade periodic components of the Earth s rotation rate[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2003,12(4):29-33(in Chi-nese).
[16]Zhang H W,Xu HZ,Zheng Y,et al.Researchfor astrogeo-dynamical effects of the Earth s rotation variation of gravita-tional potential and gravity[J].Chinese Journal Geophysics,2002,17(3):424-429(in Chinese).
[17]Hopkin M.Sumatran quake sped up Earth s rotation[J].Na-ture,2004,doi:10.1038/news041229-6.
[18]Gross R S,Chao B F.The rotational and gravitational signa-ture of the December26,2004Sumatran earthquake[J].Surv Geophys,2006,27:615-632.
[19]Ohta K J,Onoda S Z,Hirose K,et al.The electrical con-ductivity of post-perovskite in Earth s D″layer[J].Science,2008,320:89-91.
[20]Granger C W.Investigating causality relations by economic models and cross spectral methods[J].Econometrics,1969,37:424-438.
[21]Kauf mann R K,Stern DI.Evidence for human influence on cli mate from hemispheric temperature relations[J].Nature,1997,388:39-44.
[22]Wang S,Sun L C,Gan G Z.Application research based on Granger causality test for attack detection[J].Computer Ap-plications,2005,25(6):1282-1285(in Chinese).
[23]Wang L P,Long Z H.Analysis of testing methods of causali-ty based on the theory of co-integration[J].Journal of Hefei University of Technology:Natural Sciences Edition,2005,28(4):430-434(in Chinese).
[24]Gujarati D N.Econometrics[M].Beijing:Chinese Renmin University Press,2002:613-615(in Chinese).
[25]LL S.The tentative application of the Earth Systems Sci-ence to the interpretation of the2004Earthquake Tsunami in the Indian Ocean[J].Acta Geoscientia Sinica,2007,28(2):209-217(in Chinese).
[26]Ma L H,Han Y B,Liao D C.Study progress of wavelet transformapplying in length-of-day change[J].Progress in Geophysics,2007,22(4):1075-1079(in Chinese).
[27]Ma L H,Han Y B,Liao D C.50-day oscillation of length-of-day change[J].Earth,Moon,and Planets,2008,doi:10.1007/s11038-008-9230-6.
[28]Ding Y R,Wang X Y.The120-day fluctuation of the Earth rotation:True or false[J]?Journal of Nanjing University:Natural Sciences Edition,1994,30(2):217-225(in Chi-nese).
[29]Chao B F,Gross RS.Changesinthe Earth s rotation energy induced by earthquakes[J].Geophys J Int,1995,122:776-783.
[1]杜品仁,徐道一.天文地震引论[M].北京:地震出版社,1989:71-82.
[2]李启斌,肖兴华,李致森.中国大陆强地震与地球自转角速度长期变化关系的初步分析[J].地球物理学报,1973,16(2):71-80.
[4]安欧.全球大震活动与地球自转速率的关系[J].华北地震科学,1985,3(1):56-67.
[5]季洪钦,尤淑如.地球自转不均匀性与全球中震、深震能量的相关分析及其力学关系[J].天文学报,1988,29(4):326-332.
[6]郑大伟,周永宏.地球自转变化与全球地震活动关系的研究[J].地震学报,1995,17(1):25-30.
[8]顾震年.地震引起地球自转速率变化的分析[J].云南天文台台刊,1997,2:61-67.
[9]马宗晋,杜品仁.地震和干旱的定向迁移及其机制[J].第四纪研究,1999,19(5):397-402.
[10]胡辉,李晓明.中国大地震的天文特征分析[J].自然灾害学报,1999,8(1):30-34.
[11]韩延本,郭增建,赵娟,等.地球自转速率变化与中国西部的大地震[J].国际地震动态,2003,6:1-5.
[12]傅征祥,邵辉成,丁香.中国大陆浅源强震分布与地球自转速率变化的关系[J].地震,2004,24(3):15-20.
[13]薄万举,王广余.地球自转、断层形变与地震活动关系研究[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2006,26(2):43-47.
[14]马利华,韩延本,尹志强.全球强震的分布及其与地球自转速率变化的关系[J].天文研究与技术(国家天文台台刊),2007,4(4):406-411.
[15]韩延本,马利华,赵海燕,等.地球自转速率年代际周期分量的时变特性[J].自然灾害学报,2003,12(4):29-33.
[16]张捍卫,许厚泽,郑勇,等.地球自转的天文地球动力学效应研究———引力位和重力的变化[J].地球物理学报,2002,17(3):424-429.
[22]汪生,孙乐昌,干国政.Granger因果关系检验在攻击检测中的应用研究[J].计算机应用,2005,25(6):1282-1285.
[23]王立平,龙志和.基于Granger原因的因果关系检验方法评析[J].合肥工业大学学报:自然科学版,2005,28(4):430-434.
[24]Gujarati D N.计量经济学[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2002:613-615.
[25]吕林素.试用地球系统科学观解读2004年印度洋地震海啸[J].地球学报,2007,28(2):209-217.
[26]马利华,韩延本,廖德春.小波变换应用于日长变化的研究进展[J].地球物理学进展,2007,22(4):1075-1079.
[28]丁月蓉,王小亚.地球自转中的120天波动存在吗[J]?南京大学学报:自然科学版,1994,30(2):217-225.
版权所有：© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心